NEG NAO

The 0Z CMC adds another possible scenario later this week - the system crossing the south later in the week stays south - colder air is drawn into the area and then another storm develops along the coast for early next week and the results are below !

0Z Euro can't decide what to do with next weekends coastal storm now very far south of us - yesterdays 12Z had it inland close to the area and run before that was also too far south and east

Good call Walt - 12Z Euro brought back next weekends storm

Euro stays so far south and east its basically no precip

The 0Z Euro says the 2nd low stays stays south of us and off the coast and the 06Z GFS has shifted south and east also

Can you expand on this ? Nothing showing up yet in guidance so far that would indicate any significant snow in the metro ..........

after reviewing the 12Z models so far - it looks like a toxic mix for us next week at least .............

This is extreme - this pattern will continue to deliver colder and colder air as we get into mid month if this is even right - 540 line all the way down into south FLA. Also an active storm track of both Miller A's and B's - chances are one of those SHOULD deliver for us IMO.

Going to be very difficult to determine how much snowfall we might get this winter if the La Nina is moderate since there have been only 4 moderate La Nina's since 1950. And 2 of them were complete opposites - 2011-12 with a total of 7.4 inches of snow at the park and 1995 -96 with the most snow on record with 75.6 inches. The other 2 are much different also 1955-56 had 33.5 and 1970-71 had 15.5. So in other words since a moderate La Nina hasn't happened very often its going to be difficult using it to try and determine total snowfall.....

Need to move this storm further east for most of the NYC metro to have any chance of a snow and or rain to snow scenario - at least with the 0Z Canadian which I posted earlier the storm was just off the coast and the 850's were below 32 but was still rain here - during the first week in December we need cold enough air already in place at all levels before the storm arrives and also a close to perfect storm track which keeps the onshore winds from developing because the water temps are still quite warm - (most of us know this already )the 06Z GFS op is good for central and western PA - like you said still 9-10 days out so the setup can change and the models have been all over the place so far with no definite solution.

Storm potential next weekend 4th through 6th according to 0Z CMC - 850's cold enough BUT storm is too intense too close to coast and sst's too warm because its early in the season

Keep in mind that there is only one other winter since 1950 that a SL winter followed a WE winter and that year is 2007 -08 and there have only been 7 SL's since 1950 thats only 10 % of the winters since 1950. A very small sample size which means making any assumptions about what might happen this year is very risky. Also keep in mind that 2010 - 2011 winter was a SL winter and NYC recorded 61 inches of snow that winter ...........

Next weekends storm has some potential if this is even "real" at 228 hours

you are predicting 20 inches Dec 26-27 ? can you move it up 2 days ???

GEM has backed off on snow along the coast unless you are in Georgia, South Carolina or Florida

its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....

Unlikely BUT not impossible

along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest.. alo

NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...……….

Lets worry about getting the heavier precip in here first - that's the key- need more of a dynamic system to help draw the colder air in to the lower levels - 850's are not the issue

All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out....