NEG NAO

anything and everything in no particular order is still on the table for NYC and the immediate suburbs - confidence for areas farther north and west for mostly frozen is increasing.

Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …... SO ALONG THE COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN, THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL INLAND.

Euro should be interesting...….DR. NO OR YES ?

sounds like a redevelopment track

at night you won't get the same type of cooling so temps will be warmer without snow cover - also I was talking mainly about the look and feel of it with bare ground as opposed to snow cover

without snow cover here that severe cold will not be as severe and will not look or feel that bad....

only reason I mentioned that is Walt Drag did and is considering it ……….

only question now is will there be frozen at the end of this ?

everything so far about this season since November has been odd...….expect it continue like that for the duration

a positive EPO and NAO and MJO in a warm phase will tend to do that...……..

close yet no cigar for the city and urban suburb and coast

that 1 or 2 inches will probably cause more problems on a Friday morning then what ever falls over the weekend unless the flash freeze happens Sunday night and causes problems for Monday mornings rush hour although the schools will be closed Monday for the holiday...…..

how come no storm thread for the 17th - 18th event ? There is a chance some areas see more accumulation from this event then the weekends which IMO that thread was started too early ….

The main reasons we are going to see more liquid then frozen this weekend is the EPO is going to briefly be positive and the MJO is going to be in an unfavorable phase for east coast snowstorms. Also any talk of flash freezes is pure speculation at this point IMO especially in the urban areas until we get within a couple days of the weekend event. IMO the Thursday night event could cause some travel headaches Friday morning with some front end frozen...…...

Some here have and with ongoing precip that can create a lot of problems especially if it happens on a weekday at the wrong hours....

how many storms have we gone through in the last several years where a particular model run took a step in the wrong direction 5 - 6 days out ?

that's not a huge concern this far out especially since every model run is jumping around - in 2 or 3 days it will be a BIG concern....

fair points - I was making that argument a few days ago about the MJO 4 - 5 but it seems because it going to be at a low amp and other teleconnections such as the -AO and + PNA seems to be more significant in the current pattern setting up as Don as been mentioning that our biggest January snowstorms come during a - AO and a +PNA setup.

most falls frozen

the FV3 and each American model has to be questioned on whether they are even working properly and all the necessary data is being fed into them because of the prolonged shutdown - I find it suspicious that the GFS para went from a total of over 30 inches on the 6Z run to next to nothing snowfall on the 12Z run

if you have a trap in the basement where the main sewer line is just knock the nut on the top of the upper highest cap with a long handled hammer to get it off if you have flooding caused by a sump pump failure lets the water drain temporarily ---any ways we want the EURO up to stay just like this and let the other models ops and ensembles move back towards it . https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190121-0600z.html

that's not the anomaly that's the actual temp - this is the anomaly

substantial ? sub·stan·tial /səbˈstan(t)SHəl/ adjective adjective: substantial 1. of considerable importance, size, or worth. "a substantial amount of snow"

18Z GFS Para