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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    I think the 95/96 La Nina is the closest analog to this winter so far and early January has a lot of potential as it did in 1996 after a above average snowfall in December 1995 BUT its only potential as of now
  2. NEG NAO
    This reminds me of last Monday when the NAM overdid snow accumulations in the area.........
  3. NEG NAO
    From Mount Holly Latest AFD : Thursday Into Friday Rains Will Likely Change To Snow and Some Snow Accumulations Possible
  4. NEG NAO
    The 6Z GFS looks very interesting for next Friday as a wave is developing along the front on next Thursday and then rides up along the front through Friday - this is all about timing IMO and the exact location of the front and cold enough air as the wave rides up along the front - according to this it is a complex situation still a week away it is beginning to remind me of Christmas 2002 when rain developed earlier and then changed to snow across the region as the day wore on and by night several inches were on the ground
  5. NEG NAO
    no strong high to north and no 50/50 no cold air in place before storm arrives especially south and coast coast hugger and coastal rain
  6. NEG NAO
  7. NEG NAO
    need the 540 line further east its hanging back in Central PA and Central NE - need more of a faster phase
  8. NEG NAO
    rain showers coast snow showers inland on this run
  9. NEG NAO
    Don - I think you may want to reconsider your prediction of "likely below normal snowfall" as far as I can see only 2 times since the beginning of record keeping at Central Park when they recorded at least 10 inches of snow in December they had below normal seasonal snowfall - most of the time when they had at least 10 inches of snow in December they recorded above normal snowfall for the season with some years around normal.............
  10. NEG NAO
    yes for the last 10 years on here start reading this: and before that on EasternWeather NYC/PHL: December 24-27th Potential - New York City Metro - American Weather (americanwx.com)
  11. NEG NAO
    I would like to know Walt's opinion of all this depressing throwing in the towel talk going on here.........
  12. NEG NAO
    good luck if you are using this to determine that and why lesser amounts in western NJ and eastern PA then eastern NJ ???- clown map IMO
  13. NEG NAO
    Supposed to be 50 % max capacity in New York - also too many people here are hanging their hats on one model run but others are not which is the way to go about this IMO. Also take into consideration how much moisture will be wasted in virga at the start and also IMO there are going to be a few surprises during this storm many storms like this one do especially the first one of the season - remember what happened during the November 2018 storm ?
  14. NEG NAO
    and the 4 foot drifts is the other half of the fun and eventually that will happen....
  15. NEG NAO
    that shortwave in Minnesota on the GFS is what might be causing it to do what it did at 12Z anyone see that on any other model ?
  16. NEG NAO
    now areas north of I80 are worrying about not getting more then a few inches the thing to concentrate on is the high to the north ...
  17. NEG NAO
    there is one way the NAM could be close to correct with these amounts is if later in the afternoon close to sunset or after there is a heavier burst of snow for a few hours and temps slide closer to freezing or below
  18. NEG NAO
    Those snow maps for tomorrow on the NAM are overdone in the immediate NYC metro IMO - soundings and surface temps don't support the amounts listed.....
  19. NEG NAO
    yea Blizzard Warnings might be hoisted in part of the area..........IF models continue showing these solutions.......
  20. NEG NAO
    what are the wind speeds on the models?
  21. NEG NAO
    The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........
  22. NEG NAO
    starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........
  23. NEG NAO
    yes still can be changes....
  24. NEG NAO
    I would say its still possible - see - I am keeping all options on the table....
  25. NEG NAO
    Rossi - we are talking about possibilities - my point being you have to keep all options on the table - did I say its over ? whats wrong with you ??and tell me you would stay all snow with a tucked in solution and water temps in the upper 40"s
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