NEG NAO

12Z GEM trying to join the party along the east coast just a little too far offshore

yes just as I suspected around January 20th - Feb 11th give or take a few days we might be back in business around here

12Z GFS has the storm along the coast again early next week

WPC January 19 -25 - there will be storms to track around here starting later this week

Both GFS and CMC showing an LP developing and coming up the coast offshore early next week after this weekends colder air front moves through its been hinting at this for a few runs now - ICON has it too

care to explain ?

There is a message on the PivotalWeather.com site saying NCEP is having data distribution problems.....I also suspect that most of the models will have major problems past day 5 especially adjusting to this pattern change coming up...........

watch -that's when we will have another SECS or MECS around here - wouldn't be surprised ....also the 12Z models so far GFS and CMC look stormier around here beginning next weekend - this dry spell won't last forever.......

Why don't you think some of these storms will try and cut west then be forced to develop along the coast to our south then ride up the coast - keeping us mainly frozen ?

I am still sticking to this outlook I made on 1/5 except the temps might not be much below normal in our area after this coming weeks storm passes for the following week- PATIENCE IS THE KEY IMO - around January 20th - Feb 11th is the most favorable period for winter storms coming up as mentioned previously IMO !

its January 9th and we are still above average this season - no one here has a clue how much total snowfall we will end up with this season...........we still have 3 months of potential remaining

here - you can hope this verifies

exciting week ahead

Thanks Uncle W - only about 9 seasons since 1872 have featured more then one snowfall 10 inches or more in NYC

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

I am sticking with what I wrote here this past Tuesday morning.............

any details for precip and type in metro ?

Euro way south and east its amazing how much many of the models have been in agreement recently..........

not alone anymore

I would use the supposed "best " models the EURO and and EPS for now for next weeks event and then the other ones especially the Canadian and put less weight on the GFS and its sidekick the GFSv16 I would also just concentrate for now on the most important ingredients in this storm the track and the 850s . In this situation the track is key since the cold enough 850s settle in here after this weekends storm passes - always like to have that fresh injection of cold enough air before the storm arrives which signals that other important ingredient high pressure in southern Canada

850s are ok and in january thats frozen here

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

dry or stormy cold ?