NEG NAO

EURO is the model of choice because on it's last run it showed the most logical solution--- the primary LP continues moving towards the block - until it senses the block and then lets the energy take over down south of it developing a secondary and then that secondary moves underneath the block ....BUT according to this run there is only borderline cold enough air in place over the metro so it shows a frozen mix at that point. BUT the primary does initiate a period of snow here before the secondary approaches and slides underneath the metro......

0Z CMC

0Z GFSv16 - LP much further south then 18Z BUT

EURO is the superior Atmospheric Physics model - going with the EURO all the way and most of the other models will trend towards it as has happened many times in the past - That 18Z run of the GFSv16 shows a primary low plowing right through a block - not likely IMO........ What is the best weather forecast model? | The Weather Guys (wisc.edu)

18Z GFSv16 for 26th

18Z GFS for 26th

12Z EURO looks more reasonable and further south then the other guidance for the 25 -26 ***POTENTIAL***event

you have to be careful in this situation because the next cycle run of models especially at 0Z can show a suppressed storm because of all the model inconsistency lately..

Isn't it suspicious that we go from suppressed to a cutter so fast - and shouldn't that storm cutting through the GL be forced to redevelop along the coast south of us if there was any true blocking go on ?

nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....

12Z GFSv16 showing late month potential - you would think if there was a true block that storm trying to plow into it through the GL would redevelop along the coast so we go from suppressed to cutters overnight - questionable at best

12z CMC showing something similar

better then nothing and you don't know if it could possibly end up wetter then progged - still early - I still don't totally buy into this long term dry cold scenerio advertised by some models.........

12Z EURO offers some hope for next week

a better question would be IMO - When was the last time the park failed to hit freezing for a high temp in a January ?

How long do you actually believe the cold and dry pattern will last with next to nothing in precip ?

define "US" please

Also remember 2009-2010 ? That's easy to check out what the mood was around here in January which only had a couple inches after a 12.4 inch December and then February turned out to be historic with 36.9 inches.

unusual yes BUT IMO we still don't know how much snowfall we will have the rest of the season - impossible to predict - also check out what happened in 1933-34

no kidding - the way he worded made it sound like he was saying FEBRUARY would not have any snow........and March and April don't matter

1932 had only 5.3 inches snow for the season - 2002 had even less then that BUT 2013 had 12.2 in Feb and 7.3 snow in March at NYC - so far 10.5 in 2021

Until a couple runs of the models bring hope back............--you are basing that declaration on model runs past 5 days which practically everyone is critical of around here .............

apparently you don't know when Meteorological Winter Ends............

its not mostly rain on that euro run FYI

its a light to moderate event 3 - 4 inches and probably turns to sleet and drizzle before ending