NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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The way this winter is going parts of NYC metro might accumulate just as much or more snow from tomorrows snow squall compared to the possible 1/16 event............and still not break the snow drought
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1/20 is basically a non - event on the EURO -
and the 12Z EURO with fresh Radiosonde Data Input made a large move towards the GFS - your point being ?
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18Z and 6Z model runs should be taken with a grain of salt they are using stale Radiosonde data
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I think the flow is way to progressive and fast for anything more then 1 - 3 inches at this point in the metro
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I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point
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last 4 runs of just the OP ?
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who is even mentioning 4 - 8 ??? Walt says 1 -3 " right now which is being generous IMO
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in other words the old GIGO theory In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording. The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.
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why would the model with the least amount of skill level be right ?? - plus the CMC is not a total rain storm
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even though the model run of CMC showed green along the coast the clown snow map showed this
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and 12Z CMC is a rainstorm actually in this winter the rainstorm makes more sense IMO
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0Z EURO snow start to finish moderate accumulations in the immediate NYC metro - heavier south NJ
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yes that is why the intensity and the timing of the heaviest precip is critical because the beginning hours of the precip don't look cold enough need a few hours of steady snowfall when the colder air arrives
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we just experienced what happened in Central Park over the past weekend using the clown snow accumulation maps
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best looking OP model solution at 0Z so far is the GEM - but 1 important ingredient is missing for a SECS - strong HP in southeast Canada also temps near the surface are too warm too support much accumulation in the metro
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Euro and GFS more or less agree now - just have to get the ensembles of both on board.....
