NEG NAO

ok then to be fair why not trust the 12Z CMC - a complete miss to the south ?

and the 12Z GFS threaded the needle perfectly

and it does redevelop and slide off the coast

12Z GFS Continued you would think at this point with the LP encountering resistance from the blocking it would redevelop off the coast

12Z GFS

The models are all over the place with next weeks event - was surprised that the EURO went from a miss to the south at 12Z yesterday - to last nights 0Z lakes cutter agreeing with many other models that the block is basically a non factor with no redevelopment south of us along the coast.And then the EURO ensembles are south ?? Also the timing start is questionable - is that 12 pause in the event even real on the surface maps of some models ? Along with the early Monday morning start time ? Too many questions here and not enough answers yet IMO. Won't even get into precip type issues as the track of the storm being a major question mark at this time will basically decide the main precip type in any given location around the metro. I think just a general winter storm thread covering the 25th thru 27th with a details to follow description headline is an idea IMO - also there will be several adjustments in the details as the week wears on IMO....

0Z GFSv16

0Z GEM

we are still slightly above normal in the metro so far only need a few inches the rest of the month to stay above normal for the season - also note the lack of lake effect snow this year caused by the lack of any real arctic air so far. Also below normal so far in parts of the Ohio Valley .

12Z Euro looks like Canadian - a miss south mostly

12Z GEM basically a miss to the south for most of the metro - GFSv16 hasn't started running at 12Z for whatever reason as of 11:59 am

12Z GFS -redevelops off coast but too warm

corrected it to PD 1 - also that was a La NADA season El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities (ggweather.com)

ALSO WELL KNOWN AS PD 1............and up to that point NYC had accumulated close to the same amount around 10 inches as they have had so far this season....

EURO is the model of choice because on it's last run it showed the most logical solution--- the primary LP continues moving towards the block - until it senses the block and then lets the energy take over down south of it developing a secondary and then that secondary moves underneath the block ....BUT according to this run there is only borderline cold enough air in place over the metro so it shows a frozen mix at that point. BUT the primary does initiate a period of snow here before the secondary approaches and slides underneath the metro......

0Z CMC

0Z GFSv16 - LP much further south then 18Z BUT

EURO is the superior Atmospheric Physics model - going with the EURO all the way and most of the other models will trend towards it as has happened many times in the past - That 18Z run of the GFSv16 shows a primary low plowing right through a block - not likely IMO........ What is the best weather forecast model? | The Weather Guys (wisc.edu)

18Z GFSv16 for 26th

18Z GFS for 26th

12Z EURO looks more reasonable and further south then the other guidance for the 25 -26 ***POTENTIAL***event

you have to be careful in this situation because the next cycle run of models especially at 0Z can show a suppressed storm because of all the model inconsistency lately..

Isn't it suspicious that we go from suppressed to a cutter so fast - and shouldn't that storm cutting through the GL be forced to redevelop along the coast south of us if there was any true blocking go on ?

nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....

12Z GFSv16 showing late month potential - you would think if there was a true block that storm trying to plow into it through the GL would redevelop along the coast so we go from suppressed to cutters overnight - questionable at best