NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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your point ?
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True but it gets your attention when they all move in the same direction at the same time.....
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yes with a lack of reliable data input......the main features are now inland being sampled more accurately - and when all the models are showing further east - time to believe them...
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Like I said earlier for me here in NJ this might be in the same ballpark as the storm earlier in the month where I got close to 4 inches........anyone who has been advertising a major storm for NYC on TV or radio took a big chance .........
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any graphics ?
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I think onto the Canadian first - if that goes east forgetaboutit........
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the thing that gives it more credibility is the main energy sources out west are being sampled better because they are closer....
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Because it doesn't show a major snowstorm for NYC metro - I think it has a 50/50 chance of verifying at this point
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I am taking it seriously and looks like a lot of potential for a major storm somewhere in the tri-state favoring areas east of NYC
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Nam should only be takin seriously at hour 60 and under - which is here
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you are about 10 or so miles west of me and we seem to be thinking about the same regarding this storm...
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so the EURO has lost these qualities? - also what is your prediction for this storm using all the data parameters you mentioned to forecast by ?
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at this point at least for me I expect this to be in the same ballpark as the early January storm - its a fast mover - guidance is favoring areas east of NYC - I got between 3 -4 inches in the January storm and to Metsfan I already know about the ratio potential.........
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look again - move that up 24 hours....
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also high impact is defined differently for the weekend accumulations won't start till late Friday night
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you also tell people this still has a chance of not being high impact 72 hours out
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4 days out ???
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6+ inches for this storm 4 days out - what based on the EURO ? No guarantee of 6 yet maybe 2 - 4 - higher amounts east
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better to be conservative with snowfall totals 4 days out and adjust as needed each remaining day
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have to keep the viewers returning - advertising high impact this far out only opens you up to criticism if we only get a light to moderate event .....
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WOULD being the keyword - what happens now after its downgrade who knows.........
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always start high....
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which 1978 storm ???? there were 2 - one in January and one in February .
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like Forky pointed out -"treat the Op as an ensemble member at this range"
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I agree 100 % with this statement made yesterday morning - also the key upper air disturbances that will help develop this coastal low are still far to the north and west - and we have to wait and see how the various guidance digests those as they move into range.........
