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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    18Z GFSv16 - you would think this would be at least a SECS here too close to write this off completely on this model run..especially when we are still almost 5 days out
  2. NEG NAO
    For those who are south of I 78 in NJ maybe a few inches - but where you are less then that but of course we are just evaluating this particular run of a unreliable model..OP
  3. NEG NAO
    yea but in many other instances a look like that at 114 turns into a SECS - but not this time............as of right now - need major changes in the atmospheric setup.......
  4. NEG NAO
    Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit..........
  5. NEG NAO
    thats going to reduce the suppression ? what are you trying to say ?
  6. NEG NAO
    how so ?
  7. NEG NAO
    maybe most of the metro can manage 2- 4 or 3-6 next weeks storms combined
  8. NEG NAO
    shouldn't take the NAM seriously past 60 hours IMO - but you can get an idea why this system seems to be losing moisture as it approaches the east coast ........(more then 1 reason IMO)
  9. NEG NAO
    so now was the 12Z EURO an outlier ? Like I said earlier everything is still on the table and this won't be settled till maybe at some point this weekend........IMO
  10. NEG NAO
    I wouldn't concentrate on the actual surface map precip fields depiction this far out - this shows the potential here right off the VA capes perfect position a few miles either way makes a big difference still 144 hours out
  11. NEG NAO
    pregame is the 26th -the 28th is the main event the way it looks now ......
  12. NEG NAO
    Might not be since the guidance has been inconsistent all week and now the GFS and CMC are suggesting the early week event is the appetizer with only a couple inches snow and then a couple days later comes the main event and the possibility of phasing and a MECS
  13. NEG NAO
  14. NEG NAO
    only 1 model run of 1 model and still many days away................
  15. NEG NAO
  16. NEG NAO
    Now this is getting complicated for next week
  17. NEG NAO
    0Z GFS
  18. NEG NAO
    BTW since it only goes out to 84 hours the precip still has at least several hours remaining and that snow map is incomplete - BUT the NAM is still out of its most accurate range of less then 60 hours
  19. NEG NAO
  20. NEG NAO
    No - but 3 1/2 days out all options are still on the table as far as I am concerned - everyone should be doing that IMO..........
  21. NEG NAO
    calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ?
  22. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO
  23. NEG NAO
  24. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS
  25. NEG NAO
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