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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    you saw the 0Z NAM
  2. NEG NAO
  3. NEG NAO
    we do ? bold statements require some evidence to back it up with...……... Even the long range NAM is on board BUT won't be entering its more accurate range for another 24 hours
  4. NEG NAO
    about half of the members have a significant hit - so 50 - 50 chance right now on the Euro still being 4+ days out - jury is still out...…….
  5. NEG NAO
    with a large precip field as both lows merge
  6. NEG NAO
    luckily they miss just east and we don't want to be in the bulls eye at this range...…..plus some still have us getting some precip
  7. NEG NAO
    anybody have the list of top analogs for this coming event ? The Dec 24 -26th 2002 event - the second half of it comes to mind when 2 separate systems bombed off the coast changing rain to snow http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html
  8. NEG NAO
    clown map at this range
  9. NEG NAO
    don't need a frigid airmass look at soundings ignore the various precip colors on OP maps
  10. NEG NAO
    Best Guess for northern NJ -SNOW according to soundings on CMC
  11. NEG NAO
    0Z Ukie
  12. NEG NAO
    Ukie on board
  13. NEG NAO
    at this range you want the GFS to be the furthest east just showing its bias ……..CMC has been the most consistent with the storm- this is a classic Miller A
  14. NEG NAO
    snowstorm for eastern half of NJ and points east - CMC has been the most consistent with this storm several runs in a row But GFS and EPS trending towards it
  15. NEG NAO
    Every model is phasing further south closer to the coast - this is a classic Miller A - starts out along the Gulf coast and makes the turn up the coast and now strong HP is in southern Canada feeding the cold air into the system and it is now within 5 days out
  16. NEG NAO
  17. NEG NAO
  18. NEG NAO
    12Z EPS looks better then OP
  19. NEG NAO
    More METS in that forum and some seasoned winter weather experts - Typhoon Tip etc.etc. - anyways ICON has no phase and a weaker system sliding offshore south of us
  20. NEG NAO
    Euro has the phase happening too far off shore
  21. NEG NAO
    Canadian still has the 993 lp phasing and close enough and snow for Northern NJ as HP builds in southern Canada - the GFS still has nothing as its cold bias is keeping the storm well out to sea GFS might correct in the coming days waiting for the EURO
  22. NEG NAO
  23. NEG NAO
    I would be careful predicting 3 - 5 degrees above normal for March IMO especially if EPO goes negative as forecasted.............
  24. NEG NAO
    Utterly ridiculous - FIX THE MODEL PLEASE !
  25. NEG NAO
    Do they have any plans to work on the model to correct the cold bias ?
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