NEG NAO

you have the link for that site ?

and this is why you can't trust the models this far out Euro went from MECS to next to nothing too

MT. Holly says basically no snow in Central NJ NJZ012-130900- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK 330 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2019 TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. SUNDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT

well at least we get to watch it snowing at Wrigley Field Chicago https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd

exactly just goes to show you not to trust what the models are advertising for next weekend - who wants to be in the bullseye a week out ?

MJO is favorable in 4 and 5 ???

too much - complete nonsense - another clown in the circus

CMC another clown in the circus

what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend...

you forgot to mention the complex way it gets to the foot starting out with this - unlikely

it should make you nervous since nothing has worked out in 2 months - plus the MJO which has been driving this pattern has to change - its scheduled to go into 4 and or 5 for about a week starting later next week - a chance there might be a coast hugger or cutter next weekend - which is a mixed bag or rain...……...

now its just a matter of fiquring out whats going to go wrong...……..this how we get fooled shows it at 9 days then come early next week things change...

I think "patience" has been the most used word in this forum the last month or so - "bust" might become the second

The winter that keeps fooling everyone - its already a bust since met winter is just about 50 % over with above normal temps and below normal snow - January will be above normal if MJO spends a week in 4 or 5 - I wouldn't count on February YET this point...………..BUT all I just mentioned is just pure speculation at this point

this still seems to be a MJO driven pattern developing if the MJO races through the COD and into 4 or 5 the storm close to the 20th cuts - if it stays in the COD and begins to circle it is less of an influence and last nights Canadian run might be closer to verifying - sliding just south of here with more frozen precip...……….

I agree - we have been sent so many false signals the last month - everthing10days away - its time to curb the enthusiasm - what happens if the MJO goes into the warm phase 5 as advertised by the Canadian ? Could be a relatively short cold spell ………..

This look like a big rainstorm cutter next weekend ? Not that I trust the American models during the shutdown BUT going forward the -AO + PNA pattern developing would argue against cutters for a while

But the Euro - a major model not affected by the shutdown is showing 2 -4 inches - I wouldn't trust any American model that is not being maintained properly (especially as the shutdown drags on) till the shutdown is over...…...plus discounting the Euro is dangerous

that person would have been chased out of here - the only benefit of this pattern is the extra $$ we have saved in energy costs...

patience is a virtue

I doubt it holds through January - after the 25th old man winter will begin flexing his muscle

This situation reminds me of a Clipper that doesn't have any huge dynamics supporting it just a large area of light snow with totals in the 1 -3 , 2-4 category - most folks around here are not used to these type of events because it seems like many of the events in recent years have been dynamic in nature - it is also important like you mentioned that we have that saturation develop early so the virga is limited at the beginning of the event

that includes tonights rain ?

this far out its a toss up IMO - but the GFS being "broken" as reported by some is questionable since its similar to the CMC.

guess we shouldn't use the CMC either ? almost identical except CMC slower by 6 hours