NEG NAO

yup agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...……..

IMO we will continue in the current pattern cold - followed by rainstorms into the first week of 2019 then we will transition into a persistent cold pattern with plenty of blocking -NAO and a positive PNA and the EPO improving by the 10th.Wild Card is the MJO IMO...……..

well after 1/1 as another flooding event is being advertised by the GFS Para after the new year

But on the weekends they use AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.

it was released at 3 PM so maybe they didn't even review those runs - we will find out when they release their next analysis...….

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2018 - JAN 04, 2019 TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A MEAN TROUGH IS PREDICTED FAR THERE TO THE WEST OVER THE BRING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE GREAT PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BRING SEA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2 FORECASTER: QIN Z

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 28, 2018 - JAN 03, 2019 TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE PANHANDLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MAINLAND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PRODICTED OVER THE BRING SEA.

very unlikely - the pattern will remain the same until 2 - 3 weeks after the peak of the Strat Warming event - 2nd week of January at the earliest we will see the results at the surface...…..

This is the 12Z GFS para for New Years Eve - your turn ..…….

???? New years eve is 11 days away - what proof do you have ?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20181227-0000z.html

that's true and even in an unfavorable pattern it can still snow. Also if the MJO goes into phase 5 that is a favorable phase during an El Nino contrary to what some folks have been advertising around here.

agreed and will change many times and teleconnections still unfavorable

what are you talking about ???

did you draw that ?

really ? OVERNIGHT CLOUDY. PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FRIDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. SUNDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

? ???? NAM only goes out 84 hours

Burning up ? I tend to doubt it...………...

The month will end with below normal temp average and above normal precip - the wild card is snowfall as there are signs on a few of the models that the last 10 days of the month could feature frozen precip.

we go through this nonsense every winter - IMO opinion the GFS 12Z Para is still a reasonable solution

not the weekend anymore - models are slowing it down so if it does not make it here till Monday

Still to be determined and its possible any snow here might hold off till past the weekend

18Z GFS closer to coast and north