NEG NAO

Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away

hundreds of miles - trend is our friend

not really a clown map IMO - its obvious the reason for this solution that HP to the north stays locked in feeding down cold enough air - some type of block is there on this particular model run

Canadian different

its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength is critical in this situation

540 down in southern VA but still liquid - not going to get it done with this lousy setup - this is probably closer to reality IMO

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

we can only hope...…….

Many of our significant snow storms occurred while the MJO was in the COD

there would be cold enough air coming into this area from say a 1040 or higher HP in Quebec during late January into most of February that stays locked in as a storm takes the bench mark track - typical of northeast snowstorms

whats going to "rule the roost " in February is not so much the MJO- agreed - but the AO and NAO - each of these storms are taking tracks that many times deliver snowstorms here BUT one of the main ingredients is missing - the stronger HP to the north that stays locked in - with this pattern they escape need some type of blocking ,,,,,,,,,,

OZ GFS the 540 line is east of us - 850's good enough for later January - mid - lower levels questionable - would be very helpful if there was stronger HP to the north

18 ZGFS has significant snow accumulation all the was down into North Central NJ - north of the Raritan River - still 5 days away - plenty of time for even more changes good or bad

12Z GFS - close call for the metro with cold enough air wrapping into the system

still a chance that all the confluence up in eastern Canada will help develop stronger high pressure at the surface and model runs are trending south with LP both at 850 and the surface so this is still a work in progress for the weekend - dynamics - track and the development of HP to the north will determine rain versus snow in the metro area - chance it could start as rain and then transition to snow IMO

storm goes to around Chicago then is forced to redevelop south of us

This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change

Any other models showing this ? This one has shown it a few runs in a row now

not going to get much help from indicies next 14 days plus EPO is going positive - will MJO ever make it into 8 ? PNA NAO look kind of flat near neutral going forward and AO is showing more of a positive tendency ……….

Flakes falling on boardwalk Seaside Heights NJ https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights

Traffic Cams showing it starting to snow in Trenton area

Reading at 10 AM is reporting Heavy Snow READING HVY SNOW 21 18 88 S7 30.50R VSB 1/4 WCI 12