NEG NAO

Need to move this storm further east for most of the NYC metro to have any chance of a snow and or rain to snow scenario - at least with the 0Z Canadian which I posted earlier the storm was just off the coast and the 850's were below 32 but was still rain here - during the first week in December we need cold enough air already in place at all levels before the storm arrives and also a close to perfect storm track which keeps the onshore winds from developing because the water temps are still quite warm - (most of us know this already )the 06Z GFS op is good for central and western PA - like you said still 9-10 days out so the setup can change and the models have been all over the place so far with no definite solution.

Storm potential next weekend 4th through 6th according to 0Z CMC - 850's cold enough BUT storm is too intense too close to coast and sst's too warm because its early in the season

Keep in mind that there is only one other winter since 1950 that a SL winter followed a WE winter and that year is 2007 -08 and there have only been 7 SL's since 1950 thats only 10 % of the winters since 1950. A very small sample size which means making any assumptions about what might happen this year is very risky. Also keep in mind that 2010 - 2011 winter was a SL winter and NYC recorded 61 inches of snow that winter ...........

Next weekends storm has some potential if this is even "real" at 228 hours

you are predicting 20 inches Dec 26-27 ? can you move it up 2 days ???

GEM has backed off on snow along the coast unless you are in Georgia, South Carolina or Florida

its not looking like a strong lakes cutter - the 12Z GFS wants it to stall and spin around the Mid Atlantic and Northeast for a few days - could be interesting.....

Unlikely BUT not impossible

along the eastern seaboard going to be difficult to snow as of now early in December.....the way the trough sets up at first favors Ohio Valley and Midwest.. alo

NAUSEATING TEASE - GFS SHOULD BE PUT ON THE SHELF - BUT IT IS STILL NWS MODEL OF CHOICE...……….

Lets worry about getting the heavier precip in here first - that's the key- need more of a dynamic system to help draw the colder air in to the lower levels - 850's are not the issue

All 3 GFS - CMC - Euro are completely different but to be fair all 3 have not performed well this winter especially past 5 days - and at times less then 5 days out....

you saw the 0Z NAM

we do ? bold statements require some evidence to back it up with...……... Even the long range NAM is on board BUT won't be entering its more accurate range for another 24 hours

about half of the members have a significant hit - so 50 - 50 chance right now on the Euro still being 4+ days out - jury is still out...…….

with a large precip field as both lows merge

luckily they miss just east and we don't want to be in the bulls eye at this range...…..plus some still have us getting some precip

anybody have the list of top analogs for this coming event ? The Dec 24 -26th 2002 event - the second half of it comes to mind when 2 separate systems bombed off the coast changing rain to snow http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

clown map at this range

don't need a frigid airmass look at soundings ignore the various precip colors on OP maps

Best Guess for northern NJ -SNOW according to soundings on CMC