NEG NAO

WPC has precip here next weekend at least

as I posted in the mid and long range forum a few minutes ago - models all over the place for next weekends potential coastal - each run of each model is different.Typical of a pattern change approaching.

To continue on - since everyone's sleeping the 0Z Canadian has a 3rd option - the syem with the colder air is racing across the upper Midwest and forces the coastal LP too far off shore

06Z GFS - Benchmark track where in most winters at the very beginning of Feb would be a MECS at least with cold air in the vicinity BUT this winter ? Anyone's guess

last nights 0Z EURO was a complete miss to the right - models really struggling with the upcoming pattern change - while 0Z GFS is inland of the coast and all rain here

Lets stop arguing and listen to MT. Holly : SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH (POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW) NEXT WEEKEND BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LEFT POPS IN THE CHC.RANGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

its ending already in far southern nj moving fast

good if it was a big hit this far out it probably wouldn't verify

WPC has next weekends coastal with a HP in a favorable position to the north

you're welcome

NAO is forecasted to go slightly negative the end of next week - strong high pressure will be locked in to the northeast prior to the Feb 1 storm how this affects next weekends coastal still has to be determined

Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away

hundreds of miles - trend is our friend

not really a clown map IMO - its obvious the reason for this solution that HP to the north stays locked in feeding down cold enough air - some type of block is there on this particular model run

Canadian different

its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength is critical in this situation

540 down in southern VA but still liquid - not going to get it done with this lousy setup - this is probably closer to reality IMO

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

we can only hope...…….

Many of our significant snow storms occurred while the MJO was in the COD