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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    To continue on - since everyone's sleeping the 0Z Canadian has a 3rd option - the syem with the colder air is racing across the upper Midwest and forces the coastal LP too far off shore
  2. NEG NAO
    06Z GFS - Benchmark track where in most winters at the very beginning of Feb would be a MECS at least with cold air in the vicinity BUT this winter ? Anyone's guess
  3. NEG NAO
    last nights 0Z EURO was a complete miss to the right - models really struggling with the upcoming pattern change - while 0Z GFS is inland of the coast and all rain here
  4. NEG NAO
    Lets stop arguing and listen to MT. Holly : SATURDAY AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH (POSSIBLY TAKING THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW) NEXT WEEKEND BUT DETAILS REGARDING THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LEFT POPS IN THE CHC.RANGE DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.
  5. NEG NAO
  6. NEG NAO
    good if it was a big hit this far out it probably wouldn't verify
  7. NEG NAO
    WPC has next weekends coastal with a HP in a favorable position to the north
  8. NEG NAO
    you're welcome
  9. NEG NAO
  10. NEG NAO
    NAO is forecasted to go slightly negative the end of next week - strong high pressure will be locked in to the northeast prior to the Feb 1 storm how this affects next weekends coastal still has to be determined
  11. NEG NAO
    Once again a strong HP is in place for days prior to the storm then as the storm approaches it escapes and the heaviest snow is inland - this solution has a reasonable chance of verifying IMO and its only a week away
  12. NEG NAO
    hundreds of miles - trend is our friend
  13. NEG NAO
    540 down in southern VA but still liquid - not going to get it done with this lousy setup - this is probably closer to reality IMO
  14. NEG NAO
  15. NEG NAO
    was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...
  16. NEG NAO
    the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so
  17. NEG NAO
    what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….
  18. NEG NAO
    we can only hope...…….
  19. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS - close call for the metro with cold enough air wrapping into the system
  20. NEG NAO
    still a chance that all the confluence up in eastern Canada will help develop stronger high pressure at the surface and model runs are trending south with LP both at 850 and the surface so this is still a work in progress for the weekend - dynamics - track and the development of HP to the north will determine rain versus snow in the metro area - chance it could start as rain and then transition to snow IMO
  21. NEG NAO
    storm goes to around Chicago then is forced to redevelop south of us
  22. NEG NAO
    This storm is still a work in progress Canadian has the snow accumulation further north and east and the Euro further south and west so this could easily change
  23. NEG NAO
    Any other models showing this ? This one has shown it a few runs in a row now
  24. NEG NAO
    you can't trust him anymore because when he made his video canceling winter the rest of the way he backed himself into a corner - also I can't understand why anyone would pay money for his forecasts and insight when there are so many free and better forecasters out there...………...
  25. NEG NAO
    this is upside down compared to the 12Z NAM and 12Z ICON which has all the heavier amounts in southern NJ
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