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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. Thank you. I would be interested to see if a La Nina/+QBO doesn't strengthen the 10mb vortex, giving higher chances of +NAO. The last 3 La Nina/+QBO's have been -NAO's so there might be a "put" in the mix.
  2. Pretty nice -PNA/+NAO developing here on models, could warm up a bit more than forecasted.
  3. NAO has been inversely correlating with the Pacific, at like -0.70 (highest on record), so this increases the chances for +PNA -EPO this Winter. .In "0 time" 3 good posts
  4. Nailed it last year.. 12-4 since inception in 2005. [0.54 SD of DJFM NAO (0.00 is -0.54 to +0.54, 50% chance)] 12-4 is the base state verification, which is + this year. NAO forecast is about +0.40 here, -0.14 to +0.94 50% chance DJFM.
  5. A mix of 00-01, 99-00 could be a good match, what do you think? This is the last "La Nina "cold phase"", as the 2nd half of that Super Nino was very cold. I think the story will be, +PNA Dec, -PNA Jan, -PNA Feb. We were also coming up on a Solar Max, which we are in between this and low the solar la nina 07-08, 08-09, "solar ascending moderate now" (there's your fix)not sure it has much relevance.. but we are right in between 99/00-00/01 and 07/08-08/09 for enso and solar
  6. Actually, there's 2 rounds of +PNA coming up in the LR, which being in mid-October, bodes well for the Winter. Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years. I keep getting 00-01 feelings when thinking about the Winter, and believe it or not the last time it was below average in Late Sept/early-mid October was 2003,2001,2000 *2000 was La Nina
  7. STJ has been very dry though, stronger La Nina-like. I've noticed this (precip) has stayed consistent with surface ENSO obs
  8. subsurface is actually net + , I found a 0.90 vs 0.75 correlation subsurface vs Nino 3.4/MEI 0.80. December will be +PNA, so expect further subsurface warming.
  9. 17-18 or 18-19, the point is, we are going in the opposite direction.
  10. Anyway, how different we are this year. You have to go back to 2003. (Another point, with my last post, it's data after 1986, 14 analogs, and the satellite -0- average is 1948-2020. so it's impressive that all the maps are normal to below everywhere, because of the skew)
  11. Anyway, check out this +PNA signal after we have an anomalous trough/ridge over the EC Sept23-Oct10 (whole earth is cold actually.. ^14 years since 1986, 1948-2020 maps are warmer/2nd half ) +PNA December too (mountains SE have biggest snowstorms in Dec) if we can -EPO October, like I think we will
  12. EC trough/well below average this year is the first time since 2003. 2017,2018,2019 were good opposite matches (3/4 since 1986), and I was surprised that Boston only had 2" of snow in 2018-19. Check out this composite. I at least think it will be a +PNA December. (I'm referring to Sept 23-Oct 10. below average/EC trough 9/23-10/10) All of the roll forward years are average to cold, too. Mostly EC Trough since April.. confirms what I think, that real cold is at our doorstep, normal progression stuff..
  13. At least I acknowledge that you saw the post. I thought it was interesting that there is really no way above average in the mix, and it's a pretty diverse/random dataset. Seems to be a strong consensus for average to slightly below average Winter temps following EC trough/significantly below average Sept 23-Oct 10 (what I thought when I was thinking in it- outside). It has been a drier La Nina STJ though. I wouldn't be surprised if we have near average snowfall.
  14. ENSO is nothing to sneeze at. This is after anomalously below average/East coast trough Sept 23 - Oct 10. Last time it happened was 2003. 14 analogs since 1986: 70>dm +PNA. 4 months. quite a signal. last Winter I had 20 analogs for 2 months giving a +70-100dm PNA/NAO signal, it verified with strong gravity-pull, I saw.
  15. Really strong trough building in the east, everything that develops will have to stay way south.
  16. Another cluster of years for those that care:
  17. Below average/EC trough: Sept 23 - Oct 10 is the theme. We haven't seen anything close to what is going to happen since 2003. This year stands out. Follow the images. many. all with the same starting theme. Above and below average years. (It tends to happens in clusters:)
  18. Below average/EC trough: Sept 23 - Oct 10 is the theme. We haven't seen anything close to what is going to happen since 2003. Follow the images. many. all with the same starting theme. Above and below average years. (It happens in clusters:)
  19. DCA -2.0 NYC -2.5 BOS -3.0 ORD -3.0 ATL -1.0 IAH -0.5 DEN -0.5 PHX +2.5 SEA +0.5
  20. 2015 warm+9.5, El Nino... 2007-9.1cold La Nina... 2000-9.9cold La Nina 3/5 latest extremes have been warm-El Nino, cold-La Nina. That seems to me to be more "typical". I think it's typical for La Nina to be cold phase, and El Nino warm phase.
  21. SE ridge-Texas ridge has been trending stronger, may/will probably trend stronger in the medium term.
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