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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. A few GFS ensembles are showing a tropical storm in the GOM long range..
  2. Good post.. I wonder if any other place has gone 85 years, then blown past it like this. I remember you posted about AK record Summer warmth by 2 degrees, and PHX the next year record warmth by 2 whole degrees.
  3. 0c subsurface touching 150W.. not going to redevelop into Weak Nina territory in the subsurface, surface will probably go positive in March or April.
  4. 6z GFS ensembles are really strong with +EPO.. step outside now it's 60. This will be the pattern for the next 2 weeks.
  5. -PNA/+NAO. I watch for 15 years that the indexes in the medium range preceded local trends.
  6. Expect the warmer solutions to win out from now until Christmas. The good news is we are kind of doing a February pattern now, so February may be more +PNA.
  7. Remember I did that winter research that said we would have more +anomalies overall this Winter
  8. Nothing has outdone GFS ensembles or Euro from 2013. Those Euro weeklies have to have some other purpose. I like the warmth in northern Europe/Russia at Day 14-15, but it's starting to evolve wrong the last 1-2 runs. Sometimes lately the Northern Europe warmth has been +time correlated with SE ridge, instead of -NAO.That's why I ask if there's a 10mb warming signature with it (probably not, also the last 21 -NAO's have been -PNA or +EPO).
  9. Yeah, this -PNA/+NAO coming in is really strong. Probably sustained 70s. Too bad all the leaves fell off the trees in the last 1-2 weeks.
  10. Expect the models to trend warmer regarding winter wx threat. I've never seen such a -PNA/+NAO produce something good. I say max high gets to 72. Sorry for being repetative. It does look at 500mb Day 13-15 a 10mb Stratosphere warming wants to develop, which would agree with my -NAO January analogs. Also, if January is to get cold it would usualy be cold around Christmas.
  11. Pretty sure we'll bein the 50s/60s consistently.
  12. These strong -PNA's/+NAO overperform, we will be in the 60s consistently easy. Maybe 70+
  13. I know it's a La Nina pattern and La Nina STJ, but the subsurface is not cold..
  14. Sure, thanks. Do I get more attachment space? (I think I forgot my password once). I kind of use this as a research forum, so all of the previous attachments have some research value, I think. (If I dont get to merge attachement space, I would rather switch over accounts.)
  15. Maybe we'll get something around Christmas (refering to 12z GFS LR..
  16. Since I posted this, WxUSAF has deleted 24 posts in the Mid-Atlantic forum. only 1/25 survived, that PSUhoffman quoted.
  17. Also that -PNA reloads to +360dm 3 times (maybe even 4 at 336hr). I'm not sure that's something that usually switches direction in the rest of the Winter.
  18. Dec 1-13 -PNA/+NAO analogs.. https://ibb.co/n61tN2V https://ibb.co/4sMpNfB https://ibb.co/5ns22Pb
  19. Through Dec 12th, perfect opposite correlation continues. 8a — ImgBB (ibb.co) (We have a strong -PNA/+NAO pattern coming up) August-Dec12th, last year and this have such a high negative correlation, it's greater than any 2 5month consecutive periods since 1948. #1 as an opposite match since 1948, 2020 - 2021. I wonder if this will continue into the Winter...
  20. The good news is we continue running opposite of last year, all the time since August,-perfect opposite. Dec 2-12 -PNA/+NAO heavy on models: https://ibb.co/KbTzHTc https://ibb.co/5LVN1by
  21. https://ibb.co/NVDnb0t I bet this East Coast trough doesn't verify https://ibb.co/fN0RP9G Adjust your forecasts accordingly.
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