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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Pretty cool animation of the cold front to snow on 18z GFS domprecip type. It won't verify though. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    3/22-24 Severe threat

    It's starting to trend toward something decent. Love the NE trough.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    (click to animate)
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    What the Euro does between 144-168 is incomprehensible. (click to animate)
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Euro is coming in. Look at this pattern.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    El Nino is finally getting organized after 1 year of general behavior. It will likely go Moderate-Strong. Look at this +NAO today. NAM has it down to 468dm! LR modeling PNA is cutting troughs underneath like last year at this time (El Nino).
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    3/22-24 Severe threat

    The GFS looks abundant in moisture. I wonder if there will be isolated cells in the same path/location as the last storm.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    March Banter 2019

    I can always tell what the NAO is by local weather.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Wow -EPO sure did come out of nowhere
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    3/22-24 Severe threat

    We'll see, this should do just fine. I'd worry about the cutoff trough lifting north more than anything else.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Just letting you know.. next Winter isn't going to do it without the PDO, and the PDO is not going to move positive in the Spring or Summer or Fall.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    3/22-24 Severe threat

    There's plenty of moisture, even if for isolated supercells.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Yeah, we almost have a connect here on the 12z Euro. If the NAO was negative, but that's not possible to happen so.. it's probably a severe threat like the GFS has.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    March Banter 2019

    The Euro upgrade was no good, that happened last Winter (ECMWF).
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    March 17 Snow lol event

    GFS has a decent event here. 3-4 hours of light snow.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    March, 2019

    It's showed -EPO 2 runs in a row.. it would be interesting to see if it develops.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr?
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Grading Winter 2018-2019

    The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era.
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