AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. ^Alaska warming is the default. Not as seasonal as you think.
  2. What a shift in models away from El Nino in the last 2-3 weeks. Look at this, El Nino until recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png[/img]
  3. After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land).
  4. I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month.
  5. I doubt if the -NAO verifies the EC ridge will dominate.
  6. Well, Winter is breaking into the West and Rocky Mountains. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif It looks like it's going to be another one of these type of years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
  7. Here comes the La Nina. My prediction is developing La Nina.
  8. You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold).
  9. Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months..
  10. Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts.
  11. Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold.
  12. I wonder how it would be if people lived in Greenland? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html .. That's why.. oh, space weather was a +25% research and I stopped it for whatever reason.
  13. I think the Atlnatic SST index NAO index argues for a -NAO higher frequency.
  14. Just what you might expect going through September. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html
  15. ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change...
  16. To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  17. lol.. loop doesn't work. government blocked the site for a while anyway https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&loop=yes
  18. How about the coming +PNA/GOA Low on models days 14-15.
  19. It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees.