AfewUniversesBelowNormal
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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty cool animation of the cold front to snow on 18z GFS domprecip type. It won't verify though. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# -
On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
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2019 ENSO
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html -
It's starting to trend toward something decent. Love the NE trough.
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
(click to animate) -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
What the Euro does between 144-168 is incomprehensible. (click to animate) -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro is coming in. Look at this pattern. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
El Nino is finally getting organized after 1 year of general behavior. It will likely go Moderate-Strong. Look at this +NAO today. NAM has it down to 468dm! LR modeling PNA is cutting troughs underneath like last year at this time (El Nino). -
3/22-24 Severe threat
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Central/Western States
The GFS looks abundant in moisture. I wonder if there will be isolated cells in the same path/location as the last storm. -
I can always tell what the NAO is by local weather.
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wow -EPO sure did come out of nowhere -
2019 ENSO
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly. -
3/22-24 Severe threat
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Central/Western States
We'll see, this should do just fine. I'd worry about the cutoff trough lifting north more than anything else. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
lol -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just letting you know.. next Winter isn't going to do it without the PDO, and the PDO is not going to move positive in the Spring or Summer or Fall. -
3/22-24 Severe threat
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Central/Western States
There's plenty of moisture, even if for isolated supercells. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, we almost have a connect here on the 12z Euro. If the NAO was negative, but that's not possible to happen so.. it's probably a severe threat like the GFS has. -
The Euro upgrade was no good, that happened last Winter (ECMWF).
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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GFS has a decent event here. 3-4 hours of light snow.
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It's showed -EPO 2 runs in a row.. it would be interesting to see if it develops.
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season. -
WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? -
WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"? -
The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era.
