AfewUniversesBelowNormal
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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal
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Look what showed up, +SST anomalies on the STJ part of both sides of North America, like we had last year. (I wonder if it will be a similar season of hits.)
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Is next winter looking like a disaster?
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I don't know if I'm in the same weather as everyone, but the continued Pacific +PNA is hopeful, and something we didn't see 2016-2018. -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
I missed that one too. -
On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though -
This has been a model trend since May, and in the last few days. 12z GFS ensemble http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Day 5 Day 7: What appeared at 12z, which wasn't there at 06z and 00z and before is ridging over AK and south of AK, which I think is reflective of model-bias-movement/trend toward the arctic vs actual conditions over the North Pacific imo hrs 264 and 348
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Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
So anomalous it seesawed back as +AO It's warm at the surface though -
Maps show no more El Nino.. but we have a strong +PNA / -EPO moving in.. It looks like El Nino conditions still haven't slowed down since April 2018. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
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Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
-AO is actually so powerful short term, that it reverses as +AO in 4 days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html -
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
How is arctic ice doing today? -
Storms around, drought continues. The drought here continues.. I think it's rained once in the last month.
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2019 ENSO
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The jet stream is north. -
Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
Really evolves around the melting arctic ice. This is 3 days from now, Look at the +PNA Another Europe heat ridge follows, probably record breaking (like the one France broke 550/1050 records). -
Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
Major summertime -AO -
2019 ENSO
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
03-04 is a pretty good analog. Maybe with a blend of 12-13. -
NOAA: July 2019 was the Hottest Month on Record
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/anchorage-alaska-hits-90-degrees-record-shattering-heatwave-n1026876 Today a near-600dm 500mb ridge is off the Alaskan coast. -
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
It should be accelerating into September. May take it a year to catch up though. -
Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
I mean wow for arctic ice melt 594 ridge in Alaska -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Correlations to 2012 in arctic sea ice loss. In 2012 we hit 19 named storms in Neutral ENSO. -
2019 ENSO
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Big time N Pacific changes, now correlating with an arctic ice melt. It may be hard to get true +PNA this Winter. -
Yeah, expect it to stay warmer than normal as we go through the early Fall.
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Man what a Summer weatherwise . We don't get derecho's like before. It is getting better though.
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
Pretty good correlations to a year ago +1 month actually. -
Major -AO coming
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Climate Change
Here it is, mostly based around Alaska Spins off a big PNA -
2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
AfewUniversesBelowNormal replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
A lot of convection moving through tonight, look at the storms in Illinois and Missouri, could be fun tomorrow.
