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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Look what showed up, +SST anomalies on the STJ part of both sides of North America, like we had last year. (I wonder if it will be a similar season of hits.)
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    I don't know if I'm in the same weather as everyone, but the continued Pacific +PNA is hopeful, and something we didn't see 2016-2018.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    I missed that one too.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    This has been a model trend since May, and in the last few days. 12z GFS ensemble http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Day 5 Day 7: What appeared at 12z, which wasn't there at 06z and 00z and before is ridging over AK and south of AK, which I think is reflective of model-bias-movement/trend toward the arctic vs actual conditions over the North Pacific imo hrs 264 and 348
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    So anomalous it seesawed back as +AO It's warm at the surface though
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Aug Mid/Long Range

    Maps show no more El Nino.. but we have a strong +PNA / -EPO moving in.. It looks like El Nino conditions still haven't slowed down since April 2018. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    -AO is actually so powerful short term, that it reverses as +AO in 4 days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    How is arctic ice doing today?
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    August Discobs 2019

    Storms around, drought continues. The drought here continues.. I think it's rained once in the last month.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    The jet stream is north.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    Really evolves around the melting arctic ice. This is 3 days from now, Look at the +PNA Another Europe heat ridge follows, probably record breaking (like the one France broke 550/1050 records).
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    Major summertime -AO
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    03-04 is a pretty good analog. Maybe with a blend of 12-13.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    NOAA: July 2019 was the Hottest Month on Record

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/anchorage-alaska-hits-90-degrees-record-shattering-heatwave-n1026876 Today a near-600dm 500mb ridge is off the Alaskan coast.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    It should be accelerating into September. May take it a year to catch up though.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    I mean wow for arctic ice melt 594 ridge in Alaska
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Correlations to 2012 in arctic sea ice loss. In 2012 we hit 19 named storms in Neutral ENSO.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 ENSO

    Big time N Pacific changes, now correlating with an arctic ice melt. It may be hard to get true +PNA this Winter.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    August Discobs 2019

    Yeah, expect it to stay warmer than normal as we go through the early Fall.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    August Discobs 2019

    Man what a Summer weatherwise . We don't get derecho's like before. It is getting better though.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Pretty good correlations to a year ago +1 month actually.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    Major -AO coming

    Here it is, mostly based around Alaska Spins off a big PNA
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    A lot of convection moving through tonight, look at the storms in Illinois and Missouri, could be fun tomorrow.
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