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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looks like a La Nina making. I doubt anything real could develop in this environment.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land).
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Well, Winter is breaking into the West and Rocky Mountains. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif It looks like it's going to be another one of these type of years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here comes the La Nina. My prediction is developing La Nina.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You'd always see this ENSO configuration in a generally warm Earth because of land/mountain torque.. Any warmer and it's biased El Nino (Nino 1.2 and 3 are cold).
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months..
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking at medium/long range models, it's really hard for a +PNA to form. Skewed toward -PDO, like we've seen 2014-2019 in the long wavelength season. The Aleutian High becomes a block in about September and the same is holding true this year. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html I mention this because we had +PNA all year up until about 7-10 days ago. This -PDO is a pattern that will hold.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Another dry winter for the West coast...
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I wonder how it would be if people lived in Greenland? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html .. That's why.. oh, space weather was a +25% research and I stopped it for whatever reason.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think the Atlnatic SST index NAO index argues for a -NAO higher frequency.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Not a Winter blizzard pattern
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change...
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty bulllish La Nina sign
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How about the coming +PNA/GOA Low on models days 14-15.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know what that has to do with ENSO! Subsurface configuration has held good amidst changing global conditions through the year.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd say it looks more Neutral, El Nino pattern broke a short time ago now we are in Neutral wavelengths. It broke like 7 days ago.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty major +NAO, evolving to -PNA in a few days. Signing toward a jet stream 300 miles north this Winte rimo
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing".
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a really "neutralizing time".. not really surprising. I'd expect a warmer than average Fall. At least we have Fall, that starts on like Aug 31 lol.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    New -PNA conditions are a cause for concern. I'd expect the PDO to go from +1.70 to about +0.55
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