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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here it is, mostly based around Alaska Spins off a big PNA
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of convection moving through tonight, look at the storms in Illinois and Missouri, could be fun tomorrow.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You would say this is from the declining arctic ice, but I think it's a carry over from the El Nino.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's not going to rain tomorrow based around here lol maybe in your own reality.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty morning
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Super -AO pattern develops http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html start finish
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I've been watching the development of a global drought. France hit high temperatures and now Alaska isn't really cold either. New patterns are being factored into models, and we are approaching cold season. I am interested to see what happens. Does Alaska stay warm?
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The bubble actually started in 2013.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a nothing year weather-wise.. this makes sense, at least it's staying organic lol
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Watch it reverse in the Winter lol Atlantic SST NAO index for DJFM is -1.4 on Aug 8th. 31/33 last DJFM months have been +NAO lol. DJF 19 in a row.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe next year.. the ridge is building around a -WP http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this loading pattern now heading into the Bering Straight
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    PDO is important. It does look like the Pacific pattern is starting to change though.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, on this day the atmosphere/modeling changed too.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's a High pressure signal building
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Global precipitation has increased significantly since Summer 2016.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This stuff in the GOA is just model adjust SLP norms picking up on Arctic circle high pressure adjustment
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Converging
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    West coast drought.. why isn't SF anomaly in the news, and now Seattle. Space weather.. are we exploring, it's obvious at this point that we are in a bit of a bubble so what's the leading edge, etc. Everyone's perception is different.. what is radar? Is forecasting more socilogical I sent them an email in Winter 17-18 and believe that it led to a Stratosphere warming, and then a chain of events that I'm grateful for
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As per subsurface, 4/4 since 1950 were Winter El Nino's, 2 Weak 2 Moderate 49-50 was La Nina.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I see the rain as "the other side" of a dry period, already accounted for, the time. Not really an exciting severe wx day except maybe in VA and southern MD
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is moving toward El Nino,, cold west vs warm east is like +0.3 - +0.4. Surface is ninaish in the east, el nino in Nino 4 which has been the trend since 97-98. Atmosphere is El Nino
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty good SPC outlook for severe storms today, but my house is a bubble so it will be fun to see.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The Winter NAO index per Atlantic SSTs is pretty ridulously negative, like -1.2~3 NAO (DJFM) on this day.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This has been a model trend since May, and in the last few days. 12z GFS ensemble http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Day 5 Day 7: What appeared at 12z, which wasn't there at 06z and 00z and before is ridging over AK and south of AK, which I think is reflective of model-bias-movement/trend toward the arctic vs actual conditions over the North Pacific imo hrs 264 and 348
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