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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nice, sharp -NAO now developing on medium/long range models. Evolves into -EPO..
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I guess it would still be El Nino.. but that's using climate progression as a base. It was much different 2016 - before April 2018.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    N Pacific pattern doesn't match subsurface data again.. this first happened in March or May 2018.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    weird.. it's going to roll into -AO next Summer.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Quite a cold subsurface. Looks like emerging La Nina if correct.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this +PNA/-NAO starting to set up
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know if I'm in the same weather as everyone, but the continued Pacific +PNA is hopeful, and something we didn't see 2016-2018.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So anomalous it seesawed back as +AO It's warm at the surface though
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maps show no more El Nino.. but we have a strong +PNA / -EPO moving in.. It looks like El Nino conditions still haven't slowed down since April 2018. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -AO is actually so powerful short term, that it reverses as +AO in 4 days. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How is arctic ice doing today?
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Storms around, drought continues. The drought here continues.. I think it's rained once in the last month.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The jet stream is north.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really evolves around the melting arctic ice. This is 3 days from now, Look at the +PNA Another Europe heat ridge follows, probably record breaking (like the one France broke 550/1050 records).
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Major summertime -AO
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    03-04 is a pretty good analog. Maybe with a blend of 12-13.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/anchorage-alaska-hits-90-degrees-record-shattering-heatwave-n1026876 Today a near-600dm 500mb ridge is off the Alaskan coast.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It should be accelerating into September. May take it a year to catch up though.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I mean wow for arctic ice melt 594 ridge in Alaska
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Correlations to 2012 in arctic sea ice loss. In 2012 we hit 19 named storms in Neutral ENSO.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Big time N Pacific changes, now correlating with an arctic ice melt. It may be hard to get true +PNA this Winter.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, expect it to stay warmer than normal as we go through the early Fall.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Man what a Summer weatherwise . We don't get derecho's like before. It is getting better though.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty good correlations to a year ago +1 month actually.
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