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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    low ACE huh?
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    91-95 never went away from El Nino in the subsurface though. This one is veering.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Almost a La Nina configuration showing up in the latest TAO/Triton. Subsurface is about -0.4 "ONI" (for a ~peak)
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    N Pacific pattern continues to be Moderate Nino.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is really starting to look La Ninaish for the Fall
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe 2021-2022 for the Super Nino.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe hurricane season will be a little more active I went with 14-8/9-3
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Anyway, same theme
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    huh?
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nice subsurface trend uniform cold West warm central moving east. Should be el Nino through jan-feb weak or moderate.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Real strong +PNA popping up now.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It also has the look of a late-1970s style El Nino for the Fall.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah.. STJ. rain lol
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Somewhat of a subsurface recovery, we are still in El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised for Nino 3.4 to warm in the next few weeks.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The North Pacific looks very El Ninoish for the next 15 days. Subsurface is cooling. -OLR for the first time in a long time near 180W is going to keep us away from a +north Pacific Hadley cell though, despite neutral/negative ENSO.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is Weak La Nina, but the +PNA is stringent. Through the next 15 days, wonder why the disconnect.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like a -AO period really takes hold in the medium and long range.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    As expected, we're getting this near-surface subsurface warming
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty strong El Nino pattern coming up I think we are still going into El Nino
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Classic El Nino looking pattern on the long range GFS
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this +Nino 1.2 cold-PDO difference in the last 7 days https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It might just recenter West and ramp up for a Fall-Winter 2019-2020 El Nino Get some cold 1.2 readings over the Summertime for hurricane season
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Still a chance.. we basically didn't see +PNA at all, not even for 1 day in many years of no-El Nino
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    That looks like a graph of strength of the global system imo. It's been +AO though.
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