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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What's with these new models.. it's impossible to get a Polar pattern that far south without a pattern change.. Sorry if I'm ranting, Euro and UKMET are still the best.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to have a -PNA in El Nino like this, although it can happen like in 65-66. I think it speaks volumes about the long term PDO state and longer term ENSO state, which is probably closer to 0.0 vs the global average of +0.3. Subsurface trends continue to suggest that this is a Weak-Moderate El Nino (although subsurface looks weak now I think that is because of SOI/MJO, which cuts into but is not necessarily the predominant state).
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is surprisingly warm. I'm not sure it will verify.. seems like a cold bust as the primarily low is trending weaker..
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you look at subsurface data, one could argue 95-96 was Neutral.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The only way this can really develop in El Nino (north pacific ridge) is with a cooling trend in the subsurface.. increases chances of transition to Neutral/La Nina
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Jan 2019 will be the 18th straight meteorological Winter month (Dec-Jan-Feb) of +NAO.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    models are probably still underdone, it's a weak coastal though.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look back in Missouri and around the Mississippi. the precip is so slow moving.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can't believe the 00z NAM brings the 0c line all the way up to DC.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    SREF even snows to Boston.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    15-18" south of NYC now.. insane
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Jan 2000 still on the table. Wrapping up really nice for 4 hours right now.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Bright sun shining through the clouds here in Fallston. It seems every 15 minutes temps bust warmer.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is what I'm saying.. they always trend warmer/north. If it shows 15 degrees and light snow 3 days out it's going to be a 28 degree snowstorm lol.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So just look at the maps.. this storm is busting a lot warmer, so it's going be more coastal for NE MD and southern NJ. Pretty significant for this short time period. There is room for a trend probably at 00z for more wrap-up coastal.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    At 15hrs 0c line now just south of DC and all the way up to Delaware! Look at this.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is trending north tomorrow!.. again (look at the differences at 500mb. Wow! for 12hrs)
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The precip is holding up great in Iowa and northern Illinois compared to where models had it. It's also much warmer.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look how far north that 0 line is.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    nam is always right. It has that Jan 2000 look. Look off the coast of NC lol. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Can we trend last minute?
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like it's redeveloping back west. Usually you would see cold pool there right now, even in transition back to Neutral.
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