AfewUniversesBelowNormal

It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months.

Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170

Really weak subsurface now.

Look at this, classic +PNA

I wonder if we'll see another Kelvin Wave in early May.

Again, it's currently the 5-month lowest SOI since 1997:

Look at this nice +PNA though. We didn't see the North Pacific trough cut so far SW in the last El Nino. Pattern change.

It was cold in a lot of earlier 1900s years. In the 3, 5, or 10 year average, definitely colder though.

No Strong Nino coming with this (It could hit +1.6-1.7 though)

Check this out for the coming -NOI, it has the dual-opposite Pacific-Atlantic pattern of EPO-PNA/NAO. April NOI is important for Moderate El Nino's.

IO (MJO)

+NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)

Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html

(click to animate)

The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly.

It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr?

You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?

Maybe some storms with this one.

Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels.

The good news is, it's not a hopeless situation around ENSO and snowfall like it seems. The lack of El Nino-cold and true +PNA in recent Winter's, is not opposite of ENSO state. This is subsurface smoothed average data since 1979: Notice that although 15-16 was a strong El Nino, and there have been 3 El Nino winter's in the last 6 years, the long term average right now is barely positive. I have determined in research that ENSO subsurface is better correlated with the pattern than the surface. Maybe when the subsurface gets more positive there will true patterns of trough and storminess (09-10 was better than 15-16, and so was 91-95, etc).

Return to +AAM on long range models, which you see in the late Winter of 2-year El Nino's (1952, 1987, 2015). (This is a +signal, that is like El Nino but global.)

Now weakening.. this is a 5 day average.

Subsurface is warming again.. another day lol

This is a pretty healthy -1 subsurface wave making it to 180W.. chances for La Nina go up.