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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know what that has to do with ENSO! Subsurface configuration has held good amidst changing global conditions through the year.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd say it looks more Neutral, El Nino pattern broke a short time ago now we are in Neutral wavelengths. It broke like 7 days ago.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty major +NAO, evolving to -PNA in a few days. Signing toward a jet stream 300 miles north this Winte rimo
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing".
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    One heck of a +NAO kicking now.. gives way to -NAO in 10-13 days per models, will be interesting.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's just running around seasonal.. it will be interesting to see if the Atlantic SST index, which has been a great predictor of the Winter NAO, and came in about -1.00 verifies.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a really "neutralizing time".. not really surprising. I'd expect a warmer than average Fall. At least we have Fall, that starts on like Aug 31 lol.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    New -PNA conditions are a cause for concern. I'd expect the PDO to go from +1.70 to about +0.55
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface cold is fizzling a little bit. New cold pool around 140E suggests we probably stay +Neutral
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd say recent developments in the Pacific are not good.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nov and Dec 2017 and 2018 had a record cold Stratsophere.. -700 vs the usual -150/-250
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nice to see the modeled -NAO ripped apart in the shorter term again. Bad news in the Pacific on models in the medium/long range as we roll into the Fall (for the Winter).
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This might be a record +AO here for a while. It's probably not as cold at the surface. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Finally signs of a changing Pacific on the 384hr GFS
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We shouldn't be able to go too far into La Nina, not less than -0.7c I think. The Nino 3.4 is "Neutral/El Nino conditions"
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's got a little better. I was worried about substantial arctic ice melt.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    probably not this time
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Water in the N Atlantic look really good for a -NAO this Winter.. I'd bet it happens.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    government blocked me lol It's not really possible to have this pattern (+PNA) with the subsurface the way it is, or an anomaly. I say this because the +PNA hasn't broken since last April 2018.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -NAO chopped and destroyed now.. it always amazes me. Something tells me it's a +NAO pattern, but the N. Atlantic SST index as a predicotr for DJFM is -1.0.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this subsurface, we could have a Moderate La Nina burst at the surface in the next few weeks.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Images on NASA suggested otherwise, but that's just surface based. I would think "normally" we would be accelerating more ice loss by now.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know, rate of decline of arctic ice seemed much more in the late 1990s through 2007. If you run a linear line forward for the last 12 years, this season is below normal in it's decrease.
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