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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looks like a La Nina making. I doubt anything real could develop in this environment.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    After this, I can't imagine much more named storms unless a La Nina develops (we are in nowhere land).
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know, it would be hard to bet against a shorter term La Nina, at least in Nino 3. The subsurface warmer pool will push a cold wave to the surface in Nino 1.2 and 3 for at least the next month.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here comes the La Nina. My prediction is developing La Nina.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Hard to imagine the weekly of Nino 1.2 or 3 doesn't hit -1.0 in the coming weeks/months..
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just like everything, it's averaging out in time. Big time -AO develops as soon as the ice accretion starts.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ENSO Subsurface getting more La Nina like for an active October, possibly. it will take a pattern change...
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    To boot, we have La Nina wavelengths http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty bulllish La Nina sign
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    How about the coming +PNA/GOA Low on models days 14-15.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I like that the 2000-2019 base is holding.. warm Nino 4, cold Nino 1.2. Subsurface configuration has remained mostly active ENSO throughout the year.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know what that has to do with ENSO! Subsurface configuration has held good amidst changing global conditions through the year.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing".
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface cold is fizzling a little bit. New cold pool around 140E suggests we probably stay +Neutral
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This might be a record +AO here for a while. It's probably not as cold at the surface. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Finally signs of a changing Pacific on the 384hr GFS
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We shouldn't be able to go too far into La Nina, not less than -0.7c I think. The Nino 3.4 is "Neutral/El Nino conditions"
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    government blocked me lol It's not really possible to have this pattern (+PNA) with the subsurface the way it is, or an anomaly. I say this because the +PNA hasn't broken since last April 2018.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this subsurface, we could have a Moderate La Nina burst at the surface in the next few weeks.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Images on NASA suggested otherwise, but that's just surface based. I would think "normally" we would be accelerating more ice loss by now.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I don't know, rate of decline of arctic ice seemed much more in the late 1990s through 2007. If you run a linear line forward for the last 12 years, this season is below normal in it's decrease.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I guess it would still be El Nino.. but that's using climate progression as a base. It was much different 2016 - before April 2018.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    N Pacific pattern doesn't match subsurface data again.. this first happened in March or May 2018.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    weird.. it's going to roll into -AO next Summer.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really far north for a C storm to develop.. fits my thoughts that bath water is like 2005.. ENSO is Neutral+ though
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