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Upstate Tiger

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About Upstate Tiger

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Cherryville, NC

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  1. Upstate Tiger

    Hurricane Michael

    It’s actually not unusual to have a Gulf landfalling hurricane impact upstate SC. 10 years ago when I worked for Greenville County we were working on our Hazard Vulnerabilty Assessment and we looked at the impacts of hurricanes on the upstate. Using historical data from the NWS we studied every named tropical system that had passed within 50 miles of downtown Greenville, SC. Amazingly almost all were from Gulf landfalling hurricanes. Very few were Atlantic landfalling hurricanes. That probably does not hold true for NC but for the upstate of SC, Gulf hurricanes have presented the greatest threat. Of course, to your point, I would bet few if any were still TS when they passed near Greenville.
  2. Upstate Tiger

    Hurricane Michael

    GSP has nice AFD on Michael In terms of the winds, being that Michael has made landfall as a category four storm, there is some concern that the traditional model guidance may be spinning the storm down too quickly, thus under-doing the inland winds. This is always a very tough forecast, and the Tropical Storm Warning that was issued earlier for our southern tier of zones was mainly done to accommodate the tropical storm wind probability info from NHC. The other wind-related concern is the potential for hybrid convective gusts associated with any intense rain bands, which could easily produce occasional 50 mph (or greater) winds. Thus, while our official forecast doesn`t really support the headlines, the uncertainty regarding the intensity of the cyclone and the potential for occasional higher end wind gusts warrants continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  3. Upstate Tiger

    Searching for Fall

    Snow pack is building nicely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the next week or so. Models hinting at some moderation in temps in the Southeast around the 15th. Hope that doesn't get pushed back. Ready for some fall temps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php
  4. Upstate Tiger

    Searching for Fall

    Yep, it's the 3rd year in a row without traditional "fall", at least so far. In 2016 we had the warm fall and all the forest fires, 2017 was just plain warm until the 2nd week of November and this year has also been above average to date. Maybe see a cool down after next week. Highs in the 30's are starting to show up later this week in Montana and Wyoming.
  5. Upstate Tiger

    August 2018 Observations

    53 Degrees at 06:40 this morning in Cherry Vegas. Won't be long til there is frost on the pumpkin!
  6. Upstate Tiger

    Winter 2017-2018 Recap (In Images & Photos)

    Great pics and data guys! My first winter in NC. Moved from Easley, SC in the upstate to Cherryville, NC last year. We had 3” with the December storm and 5” with January storm plus almost a week of sub freezing temps and an ice storm on super bowl Sunday. Better than I experienced in S.C. in last few years.
  7. Upstate Tiger

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    Sleet and snow 38 in Cherryville. Pretty heavy rates over us right now. Didn’t expect anything here. We’re about 40 Miles SE of Hickory.
  8. Upstate Tiger

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    Rode up to Boone. About 3” as of 330PM. Hard to believe we’re 3 days into spring and a week away from Easter.
  9. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    If we had the pattern we're having now back in January or February, we 'd be talking one epic month for many on this board! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
  10. Upstate Tiger

    March 2018 Obs

    Snow flurry in Gastonia as well.
  11. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Here's the latest GSP AFD regarding this weekend's threat. Interesting that someone mentioned how it seems to snow a lot during the ACC tournament. I am 53 and it seemed like there was a lot of ice or snow at the ACC tournament every year when it was in Greensboro in the 70's and 80's. Maybe just my feeble memory but sure seemed like there was a WSW about every year when the tournament rolled around. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday: The fcst for the weekend sure looks interesting. After a break in the action Friday with flat upper ridging and high pressure moving across the southeast, moisture will begin to return from the Gulf and will spread across the region Friday night ahead of a weak surface low. Isentropic upglide may force the development of light precip overnight, and that is fcst to improve on Saturday as the sfc low organizes to the west. Precip prob rises into the likely range over the mtns by the end of the day, and keeps improving from there. The high precip chances continue Saturday night with the sfc low passing to the south Sunday morning while a deepening upper low approaches from the WNW. On that track, any severe weather chances would be confined to the coastal plain. Heavy rain might be a concern, but it is too early to mention in the HWO. Temps will rise back above normal at least on Saturday and into Sunday morning. The interesting stuff happens in the operational guidance on Sunday, with both models bringing the center of the upper low down across our region late in the day and off to the east Sunday night. The upper low center would be accompanied by very cold air aloft, also meaning very cold mid-level thickness and very steep lapse rates. Precip would/could change over to snow over the mtns early in the day, and then possibly change over to snow outside the mtns around sunset Sunday evening as the very cold air aloft moves overhead. The track and strength of the upper low is key. We have seen March snow events like this in the past, when a cold upper low moves directly overhead. That said, it is far too early to make significant changes to the fcst at this time, without seeing a few cycles of the GEFS, but a trend in a cooler direction will be started. So, for now, we will keep this idea on a back burner. Precip will stay mainly rain apart from the very highest elevations and temps will remain on the warm side. Stay tuned, though. Precip should taper off to the TN border area on Monday with more NW flow as the upper low goes on to induce another major sfc low offshore.
  12. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I was just kidding but I had a co worker once who said in November that his deer hunting wasn’t going well because the time had changed and the deer were confused. He was a S.C. graduate.
  13. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    From GSP's Mid Range Forecast Discussion this morning..... Max Temps near normal Friday through Sunday then a couple degrees below normal Monday. It is interesting that the GFS gives our area a snowstorm late next week, but EC has us dry and warmer. Low chance of GFS being right. ......So you're saying there's a chance
  14. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer. Did I miss any?
  15. Upstate Tiger

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    You can count on two things tanking every spring. One is Clemson basketball and the other is the NAO..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml