Upstate Tiger

Felt like an Edmund Fitzgerald day driving home. Grey with a howling NE wind. Obviously nothing like the 978mb bomb that sank the Fitz with 86 mph winds and 30 foot seas. Played Gordon Lighfoot in honor of the 29 souls lost 50 years ago today.

Grey and blustery in West Lincoln. Temp 37 with wind chill of 20 and Virga storm on top of us for last hour.

After the warmup both GFS and Euro remarkably both show a strong cold front traversing the country in a couple of weeks.

Hopefully this is a track and pattern that lasts through the winter

I can work with that!

Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.

Next weekend looks nice with highs in the 60s. Looking forward to it.

Finally seeing some colder air making its way into the US and eventually SE by the first and second weeks of October. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sfct_anom-imp

Kids will need a light jacket in the mornings midweek.

Starting to see snowfall pop up on the long range GFS along the northern border states. Also seeing a gulf hurricane showing up pretty consistenly at two weeks. Would love to see a nice hurricane free fall this year!

Headed to the coast next weekend. It sure seems Erin nudges closer to the coast with each GFS and Euro run. Haven't seen any forecasters predicting landfall but some have said we could experience some outter bands.

Picked up 2.3" last evening of welcomed rain. Lightening was very intenses but very little wind and no hail. Power flickered several times but never went completely off...

Not a forecast endorsement but interesting reading for a hot afternoon. Provides education on the complicated relationship of winter teleconnections. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out. Looks to stay neutral into the fall. Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

There are things in life to be miserable over. Weather isn’t one of those. It always changing whether we want it to or not.