Upstate Tiger

GSP AFD...they are indicating I-85 from GSP to Charlotte to be a potential jackpot zone with all of the western Carolinas and NE GA getting some stout totals. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Charlotte to the coast big winners on that run. SC also gets a lot of qpf.

It did OK with the overall setup last weekend but totally missed the front end snow and sleet IMBY.

Man the Euro really shows the upstate and NE Ga as a potential jackpot zone along with the immediate coast. This storm has so many dynamics in play that it’s going to be tough to nail down details. That stupid Bahama low really screwed things up IMO or we’d have a traditional Miller A. When have you ever seen a low pressure system over the Bahamas in January?

GFS pretty much holds steady. Another wild card is how anomalous this ULL will be. It will overproduce IMO.

Where do I sign?

GSP AFD... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

CMC, GFS, and NAM all with basically the same evoluation. CMC is best for western members.

Thanks! I had not seen that. Good grief...now we have to worry about a Low in the Bahamas. If there is a way to screw the SE, no matter how crazy, it seems to happen.

I wish one of the mets would explain that Low in the bahamas. GFS has that feature as well. Just shown up in the last day. We are not seeing the earlier phasing or negative tilt we saw at 18z. Probably all noise at this point any way...

Key take away from GSP, “expect model shenanigans to continue”.