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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. It also has the look of a late-1970s style El Nino for the Fall.
  2. Ok, Thanks. I think El Nino will keep out to ocean activity down, but the Atlantic triple pattern could record some good hits. June 1-0-0 July 2-1-0 August 3-3-1 September 4-3-2 October 2-2-0 November 1-0-0 Total 14-9-3
  3. -AO showing up. Could be a big season for SE, US and Gulf hits.
  4. Sky is bright blue, clear. Yesterday the storms moved in as a "high energy front". I would say the same thing happens today.
  5. Somewhat of a subsurface recovery, we are still in El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised for Nino 3.4 to warm in the next few weeks.
  6. The North Pacific looks very El Ninoish for the next 15 days. Subsurface is cooling. -OLR for the first time in a long time near 180W is going to keep us away from a +north Pacific Hadley cell though, despite neutral/negative ENSO.
  7. Subsurface is Weak La Nina, but the +PNA is stringent. Through the next 15 days, wonder why the disconnect.
  8. It looks like a -AO period really takes hold in the medium and long range.
  9. As expected, we're getting this near-surface subsurface warming
  10. Pretty strong El Nino pattern coming up I think we are still going into El Nino
  11. Kind of disappointing.. you could tell earlier today with the way the clouds were low and throughout that it wasn't going to do clear enough for storm. Lifted index is -3 to -4, radar is dying out a bit.
  12. Look at this +Nino 1.2 cold-PDO difference in the last 7 days https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
  13. It might just recenter West and ramp up for a Fall-Winter 2019-2020 El Nino Get some cold 1.2 readings over the Summertime for hurricane season
  14. Still a chance.. we basically didn't see +PNA at all, not even for 1 day in many years of no-El Nino
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