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About Jonathan

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    SWVA SE Forum Outcast
  • Birthday 04/16/1988

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    Bassett, VA (1,214 ft)
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  1. 2 SE winter storms back2back at 200+hrs on the 18z op GFS #lockitin
  2. Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer. Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol
  3. Hot take: the proper use of the term as we use it is "ensemble" ie, the GFS ensemble. NOT ensembleS.
  4. Still a lot of football left, but I'm a Titans fan and this is kinda crazy.
  5. Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!
  6. Unrelated, but how absolutely incredible is this? The NAO is a living being and it knows EXACTLY when meteorological winter begins. It's like someone flips the POSITIVE switch literally at 12am on 12/1. Unreal.
  7. Ended the "event" with about an hour and a half of sleet to sleet/snow to all snow. Got a nice little coating on the decks, cars and dirt. Temp got down to 33. Neat little early November treat.
  8. Maybe so, but the EPS (and GEFS) paints a not-terrible pattern after day 10 with some -NAO action. So at least maybe we don't torch. Yet.
  9. Looks like some more returns trying to form to the SW. Are you in Stuart for the storm or do you live there? I just left from there in that heavy band.
  10. 31F / TD 28 Heavy snow the last hour, already a good coating of 1/2"
  11. Anyone have access to the 6z EURO? @griteater ?
  12. Thanks for the reply! (And wait a sec, are you with NWS Blacksburg?!) I may have to chase to Roanoke or Vinton for this one! Also, the EURO is in and it's bone dry. Cuts a lot of totals almost in half. 3k NAM is dry, 0z GFS was dry, now 0z EURO is dry. Lot of local news outlets with some big 5-10" and 6-12" numbers. I'm afraid they may be in trouble. Hate these "dropping out of the Rockies" systems. Rather have the bowling ball coming out of Baja and into the Gulf.