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    Weather, Forecasting, Storm Chasing, Songwriting

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  1. It is definitely improvement over 12z. Not a huge NW shift but also an expansion of the QPF.
  2. And of course the pattern will inevitably change soon enough so missing these means we are nearly out of time.
  3. yeah if we don't get one by the end of this month and the pattern shifts we're done.
  4. I guess the good side of this is we know it is likely a bust before it happens unlike December 2000 in central NC.
  5. It is not even about being in the epicenter. We weren't to begin with. A nice 4-6 here has vaporized to maybe a dusting.
  6. RAH Update: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 PM Wednesday... ...Winter storm still expected Fri/Fri night... The evolution and impacts of this upcoming event are becoming clearer, although differences in the details at this range persist. Still appears that the most wintry precip will fall Fri/Fri night. We`ve seen a slight colder trend in the models and slightly lower QPF, esp on the western edge, but overall the areas of highest impact are roughly unchanged, with the most snowfall expected from the Triangle to the ENE toward Roanoke Rapids/Tarboro, and the greatest ice accumulation in our SE, south and east of Wadesboro-to- Tarboro line. Will maintain the winter storm watch for now, given that these greatest impacts will be beyond 36 hours. Thu/Thu night: Round one of this event looks like a fairly low impact, although some advisory-worthy wintry precip is expected after nightfall Thu. The phasing of the polar and subtropical streams into an expansive trough from N Que through the Upper Midwest down to NW Mexico will result in a fast and perturbed SW mid level flow from TX through the Mid Atlantic region, as an Arctic front approaches, dropping SSE through the area during the afternoon. Will stay with likely to categorical pops as a stream of nearly 1" PW advects in from the SW. Expect the rain to transition to a brief wintry mix before becoming mostly snow starting late afternoon from N to S, as the column cools below freezing throughout the low and mid levels. As the front settles just to our S and E Thu night with frigid low level air pouring in and the upper jet core just to our N and W, the stage will be set for multiple rounds of initially weak/flat surface lows tracking along the front, with forcing for ascent focused on the equatorward side of the upper jet core. Precip through much of Thu night shouldn`t be especially heavy, given the more broad mid-upper-level-sourced lift and initially weak/flat advection pattern, in addition to the expected period of drying aloft (including in the mixed phase region) which should give us a relative lull in precip late Thu night into Fri morning. Expect light (under an inch) snow amounts across the N and W CWA, and very light icing across the SE through Thu night. After highs Thu in the mid 40s NW to upper 50s SE, afternoon temps should tumble into the 30s and lower NW to SE starting mid afternoon. Lows in the upper teens to upper 20s. Fri/Fri night: We await the arrival of the sharpening, but still positively tilted, shortwave trough from the St Lawrence Valley down through the Ohio Valley/Mid South on Fri. While the bulk of the wintry precip should fall in this window, with the arrival of peak DPVA and upper divergence within the RRQ of the strengthening upper jet, questions remain, esp regarding how far inland the warm nose penetrates and how quick and amplified the trough becomes. It does still appear that the primary surface low that forms and strengthens along the front offshore will be sufficiently flat, with a muted advection pattern and passing N of our latitude, which should somewhat limit the degree of wrap-around precip back into VA/NC Fri night. This also favors broader corridors of mixed p-type. Our latest storm totals depict a light glazing mainly S and E of the Triangle, with the highest in the far SE sections S and E of a Laurinburg-to-Goldsboro line, which should see a tenth to third of an inch of ice accrual. Snowfall should be highest in our NE, ranging across central NC from just an inch or two in the Triad to 3- 5 inches from the Triangle to the ENE to Rocky Mount, Tarboro, and Scotland Neck. If the offshore low strengthens more than expected and tracks closer to the coast, we could see more banding and greater totals near the VA border and in our far NE. Precip and clouds will hold temps way down Fri, with Arctic air in place, so still expect highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Precip, likely ending as light snow and then a little freezing drizzle as we dry out aloft, should be exiting NE sections during the early Sat morning predawn hours. Lows Fri night in the teens to lower 20s. -GIH
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