miller.b.time

I have never clung to the Canadian more in my entire life lol

Funnel cloud reported on the storm in Hamilton Co. May be TOG.

IND decided to go with a madlibs AFD this afternoon, it appears. I think their glossary links aren’t rendering correctly lol. Overnight through Wednesday... Multiple rounds of are expected late tonight through the day Wednesday. Strong and plentiful will be present throughout the day. Strong winds will be present not far off the surface and will be able to be brought down. Thus, it will come down to available and features created by . Believe there are at least a couple of potential scenarios for Wednesday, similar to previous thoughts... 1) Strong to severe will persist from the Ozarks into central Indiana late tonight into early Wednesday morning. After this, there will be a lull before more develops along the cold by mid afternoon. Severity of the second line will depend on how much builds between the two rounds. 2) from the Ozarks weakens before it arrives here and dissipates across the area. Additional thunderstorms develop in mid morning to early afternoon. This may be severe if is able to build enough. Additional then forms along the later in the afternoon, which may be severe if can recover. In summary, enough ingredients are there so that some severe storms are . Damaging winds will be the highest threat, but given the amount of , potential boundaries from previous rounds of , and at least a low threat of discrete cells, tornadoes and large are also certainly possible. Uncertainty is on when and where the highest severe threat will be. The aforementioned strong winds mixing down will bring wind gusts up to 40-45 mph even outside of storms. Odds of widespread areas Wind Advisory criteria are borderline, but would rather err on side of caution, especially with some recovery efforts ongoing from last Friday`s tornadoes. Will go with a Wind Advisory from 12Z-00Z. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s, even with clouds and rounds of storms.

This is just insane.

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Crawford County in east central Illinois... Southeastern Jasper County in southeastern Illinois... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 858 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Ste. Marie, or 10 miles east of Newton, moving northeast at 60 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Hardinville around 905 PM CDT. Robinson, New Hebron and Eaton around 910 PM CDT. Palestine and Hutsonville around 915 PM CDT.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 98 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East-central and southeastern Illinois Western and central Indiana Western and central Kentucky Extreme southwestern Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several clusters and lines of severe thunderstorms will sweep across the watch area through the evening, offering the full spectrum of severe hazards: tornadoes (a few strong), severe non-tornadic thunderstorm winds, and sporadic large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Fort Campbell KY to 10 miles northwest of Lafayette IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Edwards

Looks like it’s finally on the verge of completely changing over we just N of Indy. Still a few pingers mixing in, but otherwise SN

Latest from IND: .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 543 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 Baroclinic zone continues to drift south this evening, currently stretching from near Terre Haute northeast through Indy Metro to Muncie, where temperatures continue to fall with the robust northerly flow ushering in sinking cold air to the surface. The area of 850mb frontogenetical forcing continues to be parked across Northeast Missouri stretching northeast through Illinois into Indiana. Last few hours this zone of FGEN hasnt moved much, and current hi-res guidance continues to favor this stubborn movement through this evening. Precipitation footprint continues to be expansive across Central Indiana, associated with the aforementioned FGEN zone is an area of 800-750 EPV lifting north along southern periphery, which will ride along the isentropic surfaces and continue to create the unstable layer. This should continue the precipitation footprint overnight, but with thermal profiles steadily cooling expect the partially melted hydrometeors stretched over the Avon/Brownsburg to switch over to all dendritic form. Parcels will continue to be pushed vertically through the dendritic growth zone and enhance the snowfall rates through the evening hours from north to south. This further complicates the evening commute home, likely causing a longer commute for those that are encountering the sleet/snow mixture. WIth the elevated instability causing the increased rates, this should lead to some aggregation of dendrites from some marginal warmth and further reduce visibilities. But expect with additional loss of heat in the low-levels of atmosphere this will lead to drier dendrites and thus begin to increase the SLR values.

I’ve already started smoking a cigar in anticipation of the changeover here. When that happens, then it’s time for drinks.

Threat was fun while it lasted down here lol

Live look-in at IND’s current thinking:

What’s the MM5 up to these days?

Sixty percent of the time it works every time.

Always a good jebwalk when your beard looks like this at the end