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cheese007

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  1. Yep it was the Wednesday event! Just wasn't seeing it discussed anywhere else so was curious
  2. cheese007

    Severe Weather Event 11-5-18 & 11-6-18

    People probably waiting for winter to come back
  3. cheese007

    Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    I made a thread about the event. It's a couple posts below this topic
  4. Not sure where to put this as it spans multiple subforums but a significant portion of the activity is in AR and LA SPC discussion and risk maps: ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020907 SPC AC 020907 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday. ..Dial.. 11/02/2018 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
  5. Wasn't it last year where models always had some sort of winter storm that was perpetually seven days out that just never came? Though I will say a snowy Halloween would be very fun
  6. Can't help but think this is a Freudian slip given the lack of snow the last few years. Hoping this year is different but the wettest falls are usually followed by well below average snowfall historically so not getting my hopes up
  7. Slight risk for big chunk of TX today. Mainly a wind threat
  8. Handful of tornado warnings today. Unusual for mid October
  9. cheese007

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Remarkable that as of the last NHC advisory Michael was still packing 65mph winds
  10. cheese007

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I can't believe how far inland the hurricane/tropical storm warnings extend. Truely a beast
  11. cheese007

    Major Hurricane Michael

    https://livestormchasing.com/map Gary Schmit is live
  12. cheese007

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Good stream going here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=490qZyZs6fs
  13. cheese007

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Brett's stream out for me as well. Was able to screencap this before it did however
  14. cheese007

    Michael Banter Thread

    If anything I hope this footage will serve as a lesson for those who think they can ride out a storm like this
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