cheese007

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  1. Tor warning for just west of Philly. What a mess today is gonna be
  2. Brett streaming storm surge is giving me 2018 flashbacks
  3. Wild how this thing has been consistently outperforming intensity forecasts despite environment and structure. Here's hoping it ends up OTS
  4. Multiple severe thunderstorm warnings over the DFW area. More active afternoon than most of chasing season
  5. Where is that ghost town? Would love to visit it!
  6. Severe thunderstorm warning for Denton County in TX
  7. Storms weakening a bit as they head into the metro
  8. Surprise surprise, cap over DFW is still holding with no sign of breaking any time soon
  9. Wouldn't be shocked. We're expected to have our weather a good bit later
  10. Went to bed to a marginal risk and woke up to an enhanced with sig hail. TX weather is something+
  11. May has been consistently mediocre the past several years for whatever reason. Makes one wonder if it's permanent?
  12. ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090856 SPC AC 090856 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 09 2020 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will trend more zonal by early next week, favoring deeper lee troughing and low-level moisture return across the Plains. The upper pattern is forecast to remain void of any systems strong and/or mature enough to scour the low-level moisture out of the Plains or MS Valley through the end of next week, setting the stages for an active week as subtle shortwave troughs and their attendant surface lows/front interact with the moist low levels. On each day the previous day's convective evolution will have a large influence on severe potential, leading to generally low predictability. The only exception is D5/Wednesday, which looks to be the first day where the favorable low-level moisture is far enough north of interact with a subtle shortwave ejecting into the central Plains. Supercell wind profiles and steep lapse rates will be in place to support severe potential with any storms that develop along the dryline. Severe potential exists on D6/Thursday, particularly from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley, but limited predictability and questions regarding the northeastward extent of the moisture return preclude outlooking any areas yet. Model solutions begin to diverge more after D6/Thursday, limiting forecast confidence. However, with favorable low-level moisture expected to remain in place across the Plains, some severe threat will persist into the weekend. ..Mosier.. 05/09/2020