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cheese007

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  1. This storm ended up dropping a brief EF-0 over the UNT Frisco parking lot
  2. 50/30 tor probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 42 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central/eastern Oklahoma North-central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1110 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, while posing a threat for very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK to 65 miles southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason/Goss
  3. 10% tor added for D1 and a slight risk added for Austin/San Antonio area for D2
  4. Vince Waelti on YouTube seems to have a good angle
  5. ENH added for D1 around KC but no sig-tor hatching as of 8AM
  6. Slight risk added for the 13th as of today, with a large expansion of the risk area + hatching added for the 14th. Below is the discussion for the latter SPC AC 120731 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be free from any early period storms. This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and AR. ...Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL... Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity. Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. ...Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR... Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain, with some potential for development into more linear structures given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024
  7. Got another advace-forecast with a D6 15% including DFW and part of the Austin metro. Something to watch
  8. SPC highlighting a multi-day severe event running from March 7th through the 9th. 15% contours have already been introduced for D4 into D5 with less certainty re: D6 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 041000 SPC AC 041000 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day 4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s. The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a 15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable. Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too low at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024
  9. Ryan Hall saying potential TOG in Inverness/Palatine area EDIT: Spotter confirmed
  10. Big D1 ENH stretching from SE TX to the Alabama border with a sigtor hatch to match. Already having a storm ongoing in TX that's been tornado warned for quite some time SPC AC 111627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1648Z (10:48AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
  11. Tornado Warning TXC021-149-030530- /O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0001.240203T0452Z-240203T0530Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1052 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Bastrop County in south central Texas... Northwestern Fayette County in south central Texas... * Until 1130 PM CST. * At 1052 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Cistern, or 11 miles southwest of Smithville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Bastrop and northwestern Fayette Counties, including the following locations... Plum, Togo, Kovar, Elm Grove, Colony, West Point, Winchester, and Kirtley. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2988 9686 2974 9725 2990 9735 3010 9704 3003 9702 3006 9697 TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 240DEG 15KT 2986 9723 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ RUNYEN
  12. Per WFAA DFW mamaged 1.3 inches for the event, which is roughly the seasonal average. Not bad at all for a lake effect event here!
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