pen_artist

Most recent HRRR run (20z) returning to showing some discrete cells in Chicagoland between 6PM-11PM.

Thought I would get a thread started. Models looking relatively consistent today for an event early next week in Great Lakes region. Day 6 Day 7

Thought I would go ahead and get a thread started for what is looking to be a more consistent signal for an subform wide severe weather event this coming weekend. Day 4-5 discussion: A rather potent mid/upper shortwave trough for this time of year will develop eastward from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a deepening low will move across IA and WI/MI on Sunday, before lifting east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec on Monday. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Midwest and likely be approaching the I-95 corridor by Tuesday morning. Enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow associated with upper trough atop a very moist/unstable boundary layer will set the stage for a multi-day severe weather episode ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. All severe hazards appear possible on Sunday from portions of eastern IA through southern WI/MI into much of IL/IN, northern KY, and western OH, as a linear convective system moves east across the region. Tornado potential likely will be focused closer to the surface low track, and along a warm front extending from the low east/southeast across parts of southern WI/MI into northern IL/IN. The system will continue east on Monday, impacting portions of the upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians vicinity. The surface low will be shifting further northeast into Canada. Nevertheless, large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough, and moderate vertical shear atop very moist and unstable boundary layer will continue to support severe convection ahead of the eastward advancing cold front. Damaging winds will likely be the greatest concern on Monday.

Looks to be some initiation occurring west of Madison now. Looking to be the first start of something breaking through the cap regionally.

Just got a decent hail storm here. Some penny to marble sized hail. Although this hasn't been the *ideal* spring pattern with some cold shots (and as others have mentioned this has been a relatively on par spring for the Great Lakes) recently, it has been relatively active svr wise IMBY compared to recent springs.

Tornado watch out now for Chicagoland into NW Indiana and Southern Wisconsin until 10 CDT. Don't know probs yet but will update on that.

Agreed, is crazy to see some counties in Northern Iowa in both WWA and the PDS watch.

Is anyone able to get an image of this outlook on a county level for N IL?

00z HRRR showing pretty quick recovery after first round of cells move through C IL. Has a 2nd round of more intense moving through the heart of the metro between 6-9pm.

Not to put too much stock into it (and this is more so my compensation for not having as deep of a knowledge in meteorology) but the end of the 0z HRRR has STP values ranging from 6-12 over much the Chicagoland area.

Haven't looked much into the setup myself but have heard some rumblings of a bigger severe threat later this week for western chunk of the subforum. Thought I'd get a thread going for it since it is looking like something will shape up.

In SW Plainfield just had some pea/dime sized hail. Seems like every storm passing over is producing a bit of hail with it. Odd with it being upper 40's out and having it hail but feeling like spring now lol.

Tornado in Shorewood/Plainfield hit about 2 miles west of me. Nothing to note at my residence besides small branches and a shingle or two. Had a chance to drive through the affected neighborhood and saw a lot of blown down fences. Some siding/gutters ripped and some bigger trees uprooted (most likely due to the already soaked ground). No warning and not what I was expecting today!

Tornado watch incoming

Sun peaking through and can really feel the humidity in the house now. Looking at the visible radar it is pretty neat to see the distinct movement of the clouds as you go higher up. Got the ones above going NNE and ones below NNW. Guess we'll see what happens!