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About CheeselandSkies

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Madison, WI
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Been awhile since the central CONUS saw a storm like that if it verifies...too bad I'll likely be too far south for the big time snows and too far north for severe...a not uncommon spot for S. WI/N. IL/E. IA in late winter/early spring.
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It's happened before...not that long ago.
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Every **** spring. Still, it's the long range but I'd rather see it not even on the table. If it does happen, we can hope it's transient and doesn't lock in for 8 weeks straight like those patterns tend to do. I think odds are better if the West remains cold/snowy and we don't get another SSW event - to which I say -
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Agreed, I was concerned about a heavy snow pack from this winter on top of the excessive rainfall we received late last summer. Interesting and perhaps troublesome times ahead.
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February 23-25th Winter Storm
CheeselandSkies replied to Minnesota_storms's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Well with this winter seems the Day 5-6 bulls eye is not where you want to be if you want big snows, so definitely worth keeping an eye on. *12Z GFS buries parts of C./S. WI on the 24th with a very sharp cutoff for the far southern tier of counties. Has Madison getting double digits (and Janesville almost nothing), so per the first line of this post that won't happen. -
February 23-25th Winter Storm
CheeselandSkies replied to Minnesota_storms's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yay, cold rain! We'll have to see what the back side does for southern 1/3 WI, E. IA, N. IL. -
Still coming down out there. Big ol' flakes, too.
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Not loving the look of the GFS in the long range w/single digits and below over most of the upper Midwest into early March, yeah it's fantasyland but it keeps popping up.
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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2019
CheeselandSkies replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after! *Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region. -
Yikes, last night's 0z GFS run had what would be my favorite type of storm (sarcasm) a week from tomorrow. Cold rain or kitchen sink slop for me, good snows to the north and warm sector CAPE too narrow/paltry to even armchair chase some decent severe. Good thing it's 8 days out.
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Possibly WI/N. IL, too. Things sure have turned around after the paltry December/early January. hawkeye_wx said it well though, the would-be big dogs have underperformed somewhat (at least for MBY) and that's really what I'm here for.
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After another round of duds in the coming week (per SPC Day 4-8), recent GFS runs have been somewhat consistent in bringing greater CAPE values into the mid-South/TN Valley beneath strong 500mb southwesterly flow around the end of the month. Of course that is still in fantasyland so we shall see. *LOL, totally different look for that timeframe on the 6Z run.
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Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread
CheeselandSkies replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Is this terrible performance confined to winter weather? How about tropical (was it running during Florence and Michael)? Has it really been tested in a significant severe weather situation (given the dearth of such over the last year, doubt it)? What about just day-to-day sun, clouds, rain, hot, cold? -
Uncle!
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I love RadarScope. It does need a subscription but it's only $10/year for Tier 1, which IMO is more than adequate for all but hardcore geek needs.
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