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About CheeselandSkies

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  • Location:
    Madison, WI
  1. January 2018 Discussion

    All these extreme temperature swings and sharp gradients, and no explosive cyclogenisis? What's wrong with the atmosphere? Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
  2. 2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

    What torch? We're going back into the freezer for at least a week after today. On top of that...50 degrees at 3AM in Wisconsin in mid-January, and not a whiff of a severe threat anywhere. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
  3. 2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

    Central/northern WI may have better snow/cold climo but southern WI has gotten absolutely nada just like northern IL and we are in perfect position to get shafted by the late week storm as well. If it's a choice between a dry deep freeze and days like yesterday/today, I'll take the thaw every time. The forecast beyond Thursday has me as we look to be plunged into yet another prolonged deep freeze without a single high-impact precip event for this winter. At least this one doesn't look to be quite as deep as the last one (Teens/0s vs. 0s/-0s), but I am still getting disturbing shades of 2013-14 (minus the snow, although that was more like an inch here, 2 inches there every few days which made driving a pain almost every day and required nearly constant salting. I'd much rather track a big dog than deal with a dozen nickel-and-dimers).
  4. January 11-13 Winter Storm

    In terms of what? Surface and/or upper air pattern? SPC says no dice on anything more than a very marginal severe threat due to limited instability.
  5. January 2018 Discussion

    Was that you in line at the car wash? lol
  6. Amen to that. From '12 through '17, the rule was quality over quantity. Then '17 flipped that on its head. Still waiting for the next event that has a Pilger, Dodge City, Rozel, Bennington, Rochelle-Fairdale, Vilonia, and Elmer-Tipton all lined up from the triple point on down the dryline. Of course, I'd be singing a different tune had I not been one mistake away from missing both Pilger and Rochelle. Add to that, I could have chased February 28th of this year but committed to helping a buddy do clean-up/repair work at the condo he was moving out of because hey, it was FEBRUARY in Wisconsin/northern Illinois. What were the chances, really? Then the upper Midwest essentially shut down during peak season except for that one day in mid-May (the 17th?) which I chased. It featured some of the most insane speed shear seen in that time of year in a long time but something still seemed wonky and the storms had trouble really getting going...then there was June 28th which I also chased but was limited in how far I could go by work constraints and all the quality tornadoes occurred west of my range.
  7. This, so much. Biggest model fail I've personally seen in regards to severe. I'm used to the GFS spitting out lol fantasy storms anytime beyond about 100 hours for severe, winter and tropical but when the Euro was on board I was hearing "Humans Being" in my head. Totally killed my faith in the globals. Not sure it's even worth trying to use them to plan a chasecation this season.
  8. 2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

    I almost forgot, some video I took during Groundhog Day. The biggest snow storm I remember of my adult life, and the only significant December snow storm, was in 2009. We were well and truly snowed in.
  9. December 21st-23rd Winter Storm

    Looking out the window here in Madison WI I say, "what winter storm?" Ground is bare. No white Christmas for us.
  10. 2017-2018 Fall/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

    Yeah not a big fan of snow but how the heck are TX, LA, and AL getting it before we are?
  11. 2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

    Instead of being where it is, KPOE needs to be further northeast. SW LA is oversaturated, and some notable big dogs in the Lower MS Valley (Tallulah, LA-Yazoo City, MS April 2010 and Clarksdale-Holly Springs, MS December 2015) have been undersampled early in their path on the far northwestern fringe of DGX's range or far southern fringe of NQA.
  12. 2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

    Just got some rumbles here in Madison. Probably the last ones of 2017!
  13. 2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

    That rapidly deepening surface low raises a few red flags. It's one of the things that was missing in many of the higher-category outlooked events that underperformed this past spring. Could be one of those days where "just enough" instability in spots gets the job done. Not much precip around on radar, although still overcast across the region there are some thin spots over IA/IL.
  14. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Both of those winters featured significant upper Midwest tornado outbreaks in January, and both portended an active spring season for the region as well.
  15. 2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

    Interesting (and annoying) that the 12Z GFS portrays the best instability over MN into northern WI. Gets up to over 800 j/kg at 18Z near the Twin Cities. Where are systems like this in May/June? >100 knots at 500mb, 50s dews well into WI in Dec., and the best we can do is a general thunder risk?