CheeselandSkies

Surprise line of severe t-storms in SE WI today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Euro isn't a TC intensity model and its pressures shouldn't be taken verbatim. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Some systems in recent years I'd agree with that sentiment, Hermine is not such a case based on the satellite images I saw around time of upgrade. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Stole Hermine per 18Z BT, so now 9 is gonna get the "I," naturally.

Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.

Took so long this season my click finger has gotten rusty, I can barely save satellite loops fast enough.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have what is known as "the opening of the eye."

Not a single tornado report out of yesterday. Glad I didn't bite on the HRRR nor SPCs 10 hatch.

Good, because he was getting desperate. I'm sure he wasn't expecting the first chaseworthy threat in any accessible basin (apparently he still can't go to Japan for the recent typhoons because of their COVID travel restrictions, which is weird because a local metal band I'm a fan of recently announced they're planning a tour of Japan for December) this season to come after September 15th.

It's a Cat. 1. It's not a secret that Cat. 1s, even T.S.'s (heck, even open waves) are capable of catastrophic freshwater flooding, usually due to some combination of meteorological and geographic/orographic factors as is the case here. However, its existence does not "un-bust" pre/early-season forecasts of AA to hyperactive ACE totals and multiple long-tracking CV majors.

Sounds like SPC tacitly waving the white flag on sig threat with this MD. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1797.html

Initial TOR-warned cell died and the new development seems to want to go insta-cluster. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Right on cue at 00Z, TOR went out for the Bloomfield storm. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0536.html Cells firing in far southeast Iowa with another further north, just north of I-80 NE of Des Moines. Biggest is the one between Centerville and Bloomfield. No warnings out as of yet. Some hints of rotation already per KDVN radar, but glad I sat this one out as CAM idea of initiation close to/maturing and after dark seems to be holding true.