CheeselandSkies

GFS continues to suggest mid-next week could finally be a classic NW flow ridge-rider derecho pattern for parts of the upper Midwest. Been a while since we got into a good one of those (8/10/20 was kind of a fluky one-off).

When the 3KM EHI on the GFS is in excess of 10 but the possible hazard type is "Excessive Heat," you know you're in the armpit of summer.

Maybe we should rename/retire this thread, seeing as it's no longer spring.

So why can't it ever last through April?

GFS has next potential round for this region late this week into the weekend. As with last Wednesday at this range, details as to location/timing/ceiling/chasability remain quite nebulous.

Top-notch summer weekend around here.

This little tidbit from DMX's morning AFD did not exactly age well. Almost convinced me not to chase, thanks to @andyhb's comment on here about the 0-3KM CAPE for kicking me out the door.

Copy-paste job from what I posted on Stormtrack: I was on the Shell Rock-Waverly, IA storm on Wednesday, due to a combination of mistakes and my reluctance to get especially close (I prefer to keep the whole meso in view, rather than get underneath it) I didn't get any clear, definitive shots of the tornadoes. Seen pictures and videos from several chasers that were on the large/EF3 Lake City tornado, and the much more photogenic Stanhope-Jewell tornado. Those storms were too early and too far west for me. Coming from Madison, my work day chase range is pretty much limited to I-35 eastward in Iowa and I-80 northward in Illinois (terrain in Wisconsin sucks except for a small part of Rock County just north of the IL line). First photo is looking west from the junction of US 218 and IA-3 between Shell Rock and Waverly, timestamp according to my camera is 5:14 PM CDT. According to DMX's preliminary survey, the first tornado began southwest of Shell Rock at 5:16. I believe the incipient tornado is that nub lowering between the two trees at the lower left. I was also receiving small (up to about dime sized) hail at this location. This was where I made my crucial mistake. I'm coming to realize one thing I need to get better at is recognizing when I'm actually in good position on a tornadic supercell. My instinct is always to keep moving and stay ahead of things (and stay out of the rain), but if I'd just held my ground here a few more minutes, or even gone north on 218 just far enough to make a U-turn and come back south, I would have had a great view of the tornado for several minutes. Instead, I went north on 218 to the next exit (getting into blinding rain); then hopped off there east which followed a zig-zag path back to IA-3 in Waverly. I followed 3 through Waverly, where the sirens were wailing. As I was emerging from the town on the east edge, I looked in my rear-view mirror to see what sure looked like a stout elephant's trunk funnel! However in the time it took me to pull over (just west of the intersection of 39th St. SE and IA-3), the feature shrank to what you see in the picture below, which still sure looks like a funnel with a possible diffuse debris cloud or at least rotating rain curtains underneath it. In a few more seconds (naturally, the amount of time it took me to switch my DSLR to video mode and start recording), the feature disappeared, although strong cloud base rotation persisted. The evolution I observed greatly resembles the period from about 6:05 to 6:44 in this video from Live Storms Media, albeit from a different angle and further away. However, the timestamp on my DSLR for this shot is 5:27 PM CDT, or in between the two tornadoes in the Shell Rock-Waverly area according to DMX's preliminary survey results. So either my timestamp is wrong, or the survey is. *** The storm, like most of the other tornadic supercells I've observed, was also spamming CG lightning in the clear air between the meso and the forward-flank precip; those (positively-charged?) instantaneous bolts with little to no branching, followed immediately by shotgun-blast thunderclaps. For this reason, I didn't feel safe getting out of my car for very long, let alone setting up for tripoded video. While it's always frustrating being on the right storm at the right time and not fully capitalizing on it, I prefer that to a total bust (either no storms form, totally missing the storm, you drive 12 hours and storms fail to become tornadic in an environment where they were expected to [coughLeotiKSMay26cough], storms form but immediately go linear, etc). This is also the first time I've gone to Iowa for a chase and actually gotten on a legit tornadic supercell. Also far and away my best storm in over two years with the lackluster springs of 2020 and '21, and first glimpse of a tornado since 2016. ***DMX updated their survey to have a single tornado from SW of Shell Rock to SE of Waverly, a 12.7 mile path, rated EF1. This confirms that the feature in my second photo is indeed the tornado. Per video from other chasers who didn't f*** it up, it had a diffuse/chaotic multivortex structure for most of its life with only intermittent fully condensed vorticies. Red stars on the track map are my vantage points for the photos above: Will update with video later.

Got on the storm near Shell Rock in the nick of time and got a couple glimpses/grab shot of the Waverly tornado. Didn't play it quite right so no clear, definitive view like that Twitter video. Stayed with the storm until it went hopelessly HP, then was stuck in near-blinding rain most of the way home. More later. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Currently on the road, roughly where is OFB set up? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yeah, looking at roughly a Waterloo-Cedar Rapids-Marshaltown triangle. I can be there in about 3 1/2 hours. Problem is (1) I'm still at work, staying late since our meteorologist wants to be ready to go live should the line moving through our market area get warned, and (2) I'll have to drive through that line to get to the target area.

Hard to tell. Pretty clear now that HRRR was out to lunch with its depiction of the early round dying out by early afternoon, new warning approaching the Dubuque area. HRRR had the line much weaker at 17Z than reality even as recently as the 15Z run...and remained insistent on a significant supercell traversing NE Iowa around 22-23Z. We'll see if it holds steadfast despite the more vigorous early round/seeming lack of major clearing behind it on current satellite.

14Z HRRR remains rather insistent that current IA complex should weaken and clear out paving the way for significant storms around peak heating hours, but it seems to be holding its own although all warnings have been allowed to expire for some time now. Anvil debris has overspread Madison with a milky overcast in place at 1030.

Numerous warnings in Iowa, first report of wind damage in from Story County at 0841.

Still full sunshine in Madison as of 0930, but it shouldn't be long before anvil debris from the line in Iowa starts to push in. Blue box up for far SW WI counties.