CheeselandSkies

SPC says "meh" with just a marginal risk in place for Day 2. Keeping an eye on Wednesday locally but would like to see the front slow down a tad so it doesn't end up a LP of Michigan event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

...and Wisconsin.

As they say in Ireland..."Whale oil beef hooked!"

That year we actually had some decent tornado events (not including Iowa troll days) in this part of the country by the end of May. Particularly the 10th and 30th.

Has it dying out and missing me to the west.

It's early, but I have yet to see anything strongly suggesting EF4 damage, let alone EF5.

That figures, on a day when I and most others were expecting the typical problem of the WF getting hung up to the south to be the fly in the ointment (if there was one).

Some (myself included) are finding the dense clustery convection (even with strong UH streaks) apparent on the HRRR and 3KM NAM concerning for chaseable tornado potential. I'll re-post what I just posted on ST Discord: I admit I often fail to do this enough, so let's go through some of the factors that usually lead to the convective mess/quick upscale growth the CAMs are hinting at. Low-mid level VBV? Not really seeing it. Shear vectors parallel to the initiating boundary? Not that I'm seeing. Too much forcing for too little capping? Possibly. Any others I'm missing? Although regarding the forcing, isn't that usually a problem with a very strong synoptic system? Per mesoanalysis, this SFC low should be deepening with time (a positive if you want storms), but not getting TOO deep (~1000MB), which might actually lead to a higher significant tornado threat.

It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while.

Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.

Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

I was driving through that on my way back from my lovely (sarcasm) Oklahoma chase on Monday. Did wonders for my fuel economy I'm sure and almost pushed me off the road several times. Couldn't stay out there for today and tomorrow due to having to be back at work starting 3 AM tomorrow morning.

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

That would be funny if it hadn't actually already happened. RIP TS/PS/CY. The weird and especially sad thing is, for those guys that wasn't their chasing style at all.

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.