CheeselandSkies

So what is it about this trough that's making the wind profiles so wonky?

Meanwhile the 3KM NAM paints a rather enticing wind profile over northern Illinois, although it doesn't break out any convection there through dark.

One of the weirdest wind profiles I've ever seen. If you just looked at the 850-500 crossover you'd think everything was hunky-dory. Where the hell are those southerly winds from 850 up to 700mb coming from?

Yes, even without the obvious weirdness in the wind profile, that is why I always question a "PDS TOR" sounding when it has no quality "sig" analog matches.

Despite lack of impressive composite values (EHI/STP etc.), synoptic pattern Wednesday evening over Iowa shown on 3KM NAM is suggestive (surface low with backed winds ahead of it, low 60s dewpoints nosing up to the warm front). Will continue to monitor, although would have dearly loved to see more model agreement by this point.

GFS meanwhile seems to be sticking to its guns in depicting a much more robust severe threat over parts of Iowa Wednesday afternoon/evening...this one is gonna be down to the wire with both models basically locked in on their solutions for multiple runs. What a forecasting nightmare. About the only favorable factor I can find consistently across both models is very steep lapse rates in the warm sector, which most previous systems this year have been lacking. However as the NAM suggests that may be the result of an unbreakable cap.

12Z NAM remains unimpressive.

Yeah, I read the outlook. The wording sounds like they expect mainly hailers. I had higher hopes for this setup when people were talking about how ominous it looked in the Day 8 or so range. I'll need to see the NAM come around some before I start feeling good again about my decision to take Wednesday off to chase.

Big downtrend for Iowa with the 15% barely nudging into the SE corner of the state after most of the state being in the Day 4 30%. Looks like SPC is leaning more towards the NAM, which remains worlds apart from the GFS which has actually increased the EHI over the area on recent runs. Not impressed with this system as it gets closer, at this point not looking like a significant tornado event for anyone.

Doubtful but I wouldn't rule it out. Regardless, the environment should be supportive of a few tornadic supercells across the area. How many and how strong they get remains to be seen.

Today could be more significant than yesterday turned out to be over the MDT risk area in LA. The amount of real estate covered by red boxes is reminiscent of some larger outbreaks, although the parameters aren't extreme.

NAM was a bit of a downer for IA chase prospects on Wednesday. Much less EHI than the GFS and doesn't develop the surface low up there nearly as much. However it's still early.

Already took Wednesday off to facilitate chase possibilities that afternoon due to potential being shown into parts of the upper Midwest (unfortunately my range will still be limited since I couldn't also get Thursday off and work starts at 3AM). Still, if the setup tanks you can blame me.

Holy smokes at the 12Z HRRR for the ARKLATEX Saturday afternoon/evening. Granted it is the far end of the range but even half that would be bad.