CheeselandSkies

It's still a PTC because by NHC's estimation it's still not technically a tropical or subtropical cyclone, regardless of strength. A bit like Sandy's pre-landfall transition in reverse.

If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Less total rain than Harvey but over a shorter time period which makes it just as bad (or perhaps locally worse).

The general consensus I've read seems to be the 500mb pattern will favor recurves east of the CONUS the remainder of this season, but of course never say never when it comes to the weather and October is when things often spin out of the Caribbean and get nasty in the Gulf as we saw with Michael last year and to a lesser extent Nate the year before. I don't know how much difference it would have made rain-wise for Beaumont, but with the way it spun up, imagine what Imelda could have done with another 24 hours over water.

That little green hole near/north of the Abacos and Grand Bahama... Still, presumably quite a bit smaller than it was 10 days ago.

Monday night/Tuesday morning I was driving in to work (3:00 AM start, lived in an apartment a block away from my work until the end of August but am staying with my gf at her current place across town until our new lease starts on the 14th) in a torrential downpour most of the way. Saw the lights of a utility truck in the distance as I turned onto the street. As I got closer I saw that it was half blocking our employee driveway. A big tree had come down taking out some power lines. We were on generator power and my old apartment building was blacked out. More storms this morning, sun's out now with a blue box in effect for an expected later round. So far September feels stormier than May and June in this neck of the woods!

Great table showing how rare (in fact, none on record since 1950) it is to get a high-end major (≥120kt) landfall into that state, even when the hurricane reaches an open ocean peak far exceeding that (Isabel) or in several advisory packages the forecast points take it inland with winds meeting that criteria (Florence, possibly Floyd although I don't remember for sure). Many of those pressures would also certainly support intense major hurricane winds in a more tightly-wound, rapidly intensifying system (such as Dorian pre-Bahamas, or Charley).

SPC says "meh" with just a marginal risk in place for Day 2. Keeping an eye on Wednesday locally but would like to see the front slow down a tad so it doesn't end up a LP of Michigan event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

...and Wisconsin.

As they say in Ireland..."Whale oil beef hooked!"

That year we actually had some decent tornado events (not including Iowa troll days) in this part of the country by the end of May. Particularly the 10th and 30th.

Has it dying out and missing me to the west.

It's early, but I have yet to see anything strongly suggesting EF4 damage, let alone EF5.

That figures, on a day when I and most others were expecting the typical problem of the WF getting hung up to the south to be the fly in the ointment (if there was one).

Some (myself included) are finding the dense clustery convection (even with strong UH streaks) apparent on the HRRR and 3KM NAM concerning for chaseable tornado potential. I'll re-post what I just posted on ST Discord: I admit I often fail to do this enough, so let's go through some of the factors that usually lead to the convective mess/quick upscale growth the CAMs are hinting at. Low-mid level VBV? Not really seeing it. Shear vectors parallel to the initiating boundary? Not that I'm seeing. Too much forcing for too little capping? Possibly. Any others I'm missing? Although regarding the forcing, isn't that usually a problem with a very strong synoptic system? Per mesoanalysis, this SFC low should be deepening with time (a positive if you want storms), but not getting TOO deep (~1000MB), which might actually lead to a higher significant tornado threat.