CheeselandSkies

Precisely. That lack of transition seasons (and consequent lack of severe weather, until last Saturday) is my main gripe with 2018 (and actually, most of this decade). If this is what climate change looks like, maybe I need to find some new hobbies.

I haven't seen it specifically mentioned in this thread yet - the Taylorville tornado has been bumped up to EF3 with a 12.7-mile path. Nothing to sneeze at in any season!

Not sure how much it's worth but the 06Z GFS doesn't show the Midwest getting any more snow, and in fact erodes the snowpack to nothing across IL, most of IA and the southern 2/3 of WI/MI through hour 384.

Allow me to once again express my astonishment (and slight bemusement/annoyance) that this is occurring in December and not A/M/J.

Huge TDS has persisted for at least the last 4 scans (I'm sure no "TORR"s being active is an oversight).

Looks like something you'd see in Colorado! Where were systems like this in May?

This is just a guess, but I suspect more of OK is under a tornado watch on the last day of November 2018 than ever was at any point in May 2018.

15Z HRRR has a lot more updraft helicity with cells across the Arklatex/SE OK and even into eastern Kansas overnight compared to the 12Z/13Z runs and the 12Z 3KM NAM.

Morning visible shows some breaks in the clouds across eastern OK and west-central AR. Not sure how much it matters, but widespread morning clouds/precip was mentioned as one possible limiting factor for this setup by SPC in the Day 2 and 3 outlooks issued yesterday and Wednesday. Instability might not be as much of a problem as first thought, but as I alluded to in the other thread, NAM forecast soundings (this sample valid for 03Z tonight near Quinton, OK) show somewhat unidirectional wind profiles above 850mb. Even so, there's a sharp turn from SE to SW and very strong winds in the lowest 1KM (reflected by the SRH number). To me the lack of turning and even slight backing above that is a red flag for storm mode/maintenance, but CAMs so far depict a pretty discrete mode, and with 1KM shear like that any organized supercell should be able to produce.

HRRR and 3KM NAM break out a lot of discrete convection over OK/TX/AR/LA tonight, but forecast updraft helicity isn't all that impressive except in isolated pockets.

Wow, 12Z NAM STP values jump up to over 3 by 03Z tonight across parts of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Between terrain/trees and darkness, this is a bad combination for residents and chasers. Can someone explain how on this forecast sounding, there is so much SRH despite the fact that the winds only gradually back with height, and in fact are depicted as pretty much unidirectional from 850 almost up to 500 mb? Even so, hodograph looks decently curved at the low levels although a little funky higher up. Although, I have never fully wrapped my head around interpreting hodographs so I prefer to use the wind barbs on the right of the sounding to visualize the shear profile with height. Lapse rates, while not particularly steep, don't look like an instability killer as in some other setups this year.

One of the worst years ever if you like severe.

What was initially looking like another TN Valley/Dixie event has trended more to west of the Arklatex, at least for Friday. SPC introduced a small hatched area on the updated Day 2 outlook for the possibility of very large hail in the area including the DFW metro. Isolated tornadoes are also possible anywhere from there east to the lower MS valley.

Enhanced (30% risk) for ARKLATEX into lower MS valley Friday. Slight risk for Dixie Saturday. Not an ideal setup but wouldn't sleep on an isolated impact event or two. This is the time of year when tornadoes in the South can strike any time of day, often out of a previously innocuous-looking QLCS, and people aren't as aware as they might be in the spring.

Goodness, look at that trough digging into the western US on the 12Z NAM with unfettered southerly flow off the western and central Gulf. Where was that in May?