CheeselandSkies

Haven't seen a drop here on the far west side, Storms training NNE just to my east. But my Bucks game keeps getting interrupted by warnings, mostly for other counties. Spectrum has got to get SAME technology, like weather radios have had for quite some time now. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SVR EAS alert just interrupted my Bucks game on Spectrum... already more than happened yesterday ofc. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC has MD out mentioning potential for landspouts over northern IL. There's currently a severe-warned cell nearly stationary over Peru/La Salle. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html I'm planning to stay home in the A/C and watch the Bucks game.

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

Quite a few earlier runs of the HRRR had a sup firing and tracking through some combination of Richland/Sauk/Columbia Counties with a robust UH streak from about 20-22Z. At the time I made that post, the latest couple runs (starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure) dropped that and there was no sign of incipient CI in that area.

Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0708.html

Last few HRRR runs have brought back that Sauk County supercell this afternoon and have been pretty consistent with it. Still in bad terrain but at least not right along the river valley. Mesoanalysis suggests some sort of surface "perturbation" (not really a low) with backed sfc winds will move through that area, so this seems plausible.

Interesting, SPC expanded 5% tor probs southward to include Madison and added a hatched hail area despite HRRR's downtrending with convective coverage and UH.

Go figure, last couple HRRR runs kill off the storms in southern WI just as they start to move out of the horrible terrain of the WI River valley. Not real keen on chasing the Northwoods on May 10th.

Was not expecting the slight risk for tomorrow. Now 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

That stupid cutoff (remnants of the previous trough that produced the severe weather Wednesday through yesterday) is what will ruin this next few days of would-be setups by preventing the next trough from ejecting across the Plains properly.

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

May 31, El Reno tornado killed Tim Samaras & crew and became the widest tornado (officially) on record.

Kind of odd how with the extended stretch of BA temps (leafout is the furthest behind on May 2nd I ever recall it being in my adult life, and that includes the godawful springs of 2014 and 2018); yet I've already been on two local/regional storm chases this year (could have been three if I hadn't been dumb and sat out 3/5), which is more than I usually have by this point in the spring. For obvious reasons, I associate severe potential with AA temps and the (theoretically) accompanying moisture/instability.