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About CheeselandSkies

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  • Location:
    Madison, WI
  1. I know, right? It seems to have been particularly bad this year, ever since all these model "upgrades." I think I've seen more potentially high-end/high-impact systems fizzle on the GFS in the 84-120 hour range than ever before. One of these years, the atmosphere is going to produce a real big dog over the central CONUS again. The question is, will the weather enterprise see it coming in time to introduce enhanced wording in the medium range, or will they have become gun-shy after all these "false alarms"? Even the mighty EURO has had issues at times with modeling patterns a lot more ominous/hazardous than they turned out to be.
  2. Risk area removed for Day 4.
  3. WI and IL offices don't seem particularly concerned. MKX just mentions that wind advisory criteria may be met. Still 5 days out.
  4. It has been discussed a bit in the severe thread. Verbatim the GFS CAPE isn't all that impressive with just a narrow tongue right up along the CF, and zilch out ahead in the warm sector where the surface winds are backed.
  5. 12Z GFS much weaker with the late week storm until it gets north of Lake Ontario. Euro on the other hand looks much more interesting with a double-barreled low feature at 12Z Friday (991 MB near Winnipeg and 996 MB over western KS) consolidating and deepening to 979 MB over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday.
  6. Damn this thing flies on the GFS. Western Kansas at 0z FRI to northern Iowa six hours later. Oh to see a cyclone like that in May.
  7. Would like to see the timing change a little bit on the GFS for severe, it has the cold front coming through between 06-12z.
  8. Now that's the kind of thing I was talking about!
  9. Does anyone else feel like the western Great Lakes/upper Midwest are overdue for a really big storm of some type? High-end, high-impact, multifaceted (some combination of severe wx, winter wx and synoptic wind). Modeled with enough agreement that it will occur for several days of hype and strongly worded forecasts, but with enough uncertainty with regards to track and specific impacts to keep it interesting. Seems to me that the last time we saw something that approaches this description was 2011 or so. Sure we have had a few active periods and some locally significant events (for example the Rochelle-Fairdale tornado of 2015) but nothing that really rises to the level of what I described. Of course I've been saying this for the last few falls/winters/springs now that we are due for a big dog, but it seems like anytime the potential for one shows up on the models it fizzles/underperforms in some way. Doesn't look like it's in the cards in the near future, either. What happened to that torch/gradient?
  10. IL lighting up now as well, although those storms may remain post-frontal/elevated. Should one become established in the warm sector we could see more of what has already happened in IN/OH.
  11. What a TDS. Reflectivity looks so unimpressive compared to the southern storm.
  12. The southern storm looks like a monster on reflectivity, but so far no comparable reports coming out of it.
  13. Bloomington storm looks to be cycling. Old rotation buried back in the rain, new area to watch near Heltonville.
  14. The southern, discrete cell looks to be getting its act together. More interested in that than the 1st warned cell.
  15. If the NAM is to be believed it looks like EC IL into WC/NC IN is the place and I am out for chasing due to having work in Madison at 3AM Monday. See you in the spring.