CheeselandSkies

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

RadarScope showing some lightning strikes near Kankakee/Joliet.

Forecast for Monday is partly sunny and 55.

A rockin' June for me is like a rockin' February (or March) for @beavis1729 and other winter weenies. It's better than nothing (unless you're rooting for a futility record by that point), but it's tough to fully enjoy because you know the season is almost over before it really began when you waste two months of peak climo for your preferred type of weather.

Had me going there for a sec. Might as well just lock this thread for the next month.

That ****-ing NW-SE stream from south-central Canada down into the mid-Atlantic. The thing about the favorable tropical forcing etc I thought was it was supposed to make that go away, at least temporarily. What's it going to take to allow for a trough to dig into the western US and spin out a sequence of shortwaves that can then traverse the central and eastern US unimpeded, with ready access to rich Gulf moisture, as happened in years like 1999, 2004 and 2008?

IMO there hasn't really been a classic regional Plains outbreak since 5/6/2015 (reports graphic attached). There was expected to be a more significant one ten days later (15% hatched TOR from the OK/TX border to I-80 corridor in NE on the initial Day 1 outlook) but most of the warm sector got washed out by overnight junk and the only major player of the day ended up being the Elmer/Tipton, OK-area tornado. Likewise every other would-be high end day since (most notably the high-risk 5/18/17 and 5/20/19) have 11th-hour downtrended to one "needle in a haystack" storm of the day that performs. Not to say that there haven't been classic tornadoes/tornado days in the mid/late 2010s (especially Dodge City 5/24/16 and Chapman the next day, as well as some good western Plains/front range days in CO/WY/MT/western NE) but those have mostly been one or two storm affairs, not outbreaks in the classic sense like a 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 or even 5/29/04.

Is it bad that every spring I feel compelled to bring this out? ...until the next one.

Let's just hit all the places in the South that have been hit before...Yazoo City, Tupelo, now Gallatin.

If it were a May 2003 analog you'd think there would be at least a whiff of a sustained SW flow pattern and outbreak sequence potential on the models.

I see two, both in Georgia and listed under the wind reports.

Couplet appears to be ramping up with a possible TDS SW of Blum, TX.

Overall structure of the complex (linear cluster/bowing segment with supercell/hook at the south end) reminds me of the one that produced the at-dusk EF2 that I glimpsed near Trivoli/Hanna City (about 3 rows of counties north) on March 15, 2016.

Lead storm is within the sweet spot from KILX where if there were anything substantial down we'd see a pronounced couplet and TDS.

Argh. If it could have been along I-80 instead of I-72 I'd have been there. Blasted work.