CheeselandSkies

Been awhile since the central CONUS saw a storm like that if it verifies...too bad I'll likely be too far south for the big time snows and too far north for severe...a not uncommon spot for S. WI/N. IL/E. IA in late winter/early spring.

It's happened before...not that long ago.

Every **** spring. Still, it's the long range but I'd rather see it not even on the table. If it does happen, we can hope it's transient and doesn't lock in for 8 weeks straight like those patterns tend to do. I think odds are better if the West remains cold/snowy and we don't get another SSW event - to which I say -

Agreed, I was concerned about a heavy snow pack from this winter on top of the excessive rainfall we received late last summer. Interesting and perhaps troublesome times ahead.

Well with this winter seems the Day 5-6 bulls eye is not where you want to be if you want big snows, so definitely worth keeping an eye on. *12Z GFS buries parts of C./S. WI on the 24th with a very sharp cutoff for the far southern tier of counties. Has Madison getting double digits (and Janesville almost nothing), so per the first line of this post that won't happen.

Yay, cold rain! We'll have to see what the back side does for southern 1/3 WI, E. IA, N. IL.

Still coming down out there. Big ol' flakes, too.

Not loving the look of the GFS in the long range w/single digits and below over most of the upper Midwest into early March, yeah it's fantasyland but it keeps popping up.

I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after! *Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region.

Yikes, last night's 0z GFS run had what would be my favorite type of storm (sarcasm) a week from tomorrow. Cold rain or kitchen sink slop for me, good snows to the north and warm sector CAPE too narrow/paltry to even armchair chase some decent severe. Good thing it's 8 days out.

Possibly WI/N. IL, too. Things sure have turned around after the paltry December/early January. hawkeye_wx said it well though, the would-be big dogs have underperformed somewhat (at least for MBY) and that's really what I'm here for.

After another round of duds in the coming week (per SPC Day 4-8), recent GFS runs have been somewhat consistent in bringing greater CAPE values into the mid-South/TN Valley beneath strong 500mb southwesterly flow around the end of the month. Of course that is still in fantasyland so we shall see. *LOL, totally different look for that timeframe on the 6Z run.

Is this terrible performance confined to winter weather? How about tropical (was it running during Florence and Michael)? Has it really been tested in a significant severe weather situation (given the dearth of such over the last year, doubt it)? What about just day-to-day sun, clouds, rain, hot, cold?

Uncle!

I love RadarScope. It does need a subscription but it's only $10/year for Tier 1, which IMO is more than adequate for all but hardcore geek needs.