CheeselandSkies

You know it's bad when even Broyles can't find an excuse to introduce more than a marginal risk.

Got some nice boomers headed my way, although the severe stuff looks to miss just to the south. This spring/summer (after the abominable cold went away) has featured no shortage of thunderstorms, just not much if anything predictably severe beyond Day 1 or chaseworthy. That's what saves it from being the worst summer weather in my memory, which was 2012 (unrelenting heat, but no thunderstorms let alone severe).

Personally I think they need to raise the criteria for enhanced risk. There's a big difference between an enhanced risk day that produces a Wynnewood or Dodge City, and one that is issued for a modestly greater coverage of wind or hail than a 15% Slight can convey. The old slight risk category was too broad, but they are issuing so many enhanced risks now that the word is losing its impact, at least for me. I think if the risk on Day 1 is only for 30% wind OR hail, it should stay at Slight. It should only trigger an Enhanced if: A.) The probabilities are 30% for both wind AND hail. B.) At least one of those hazards has a hatched area. C.) There is a 10% tornado probability area (hatched or unhatched). By the same token, Day 2 and beyond shouldn't trigger an Enhanced unless it is expected to become 30% probability for wind AND hail hazards OR 10% tornado probability OR there is a hatched area for any hazard. I think they have been trying to get too cute with some of the extended range probabilities, although the garbage severe weather pattern of the last few years and models' often poor grasp of it haven't helped. To me, 30% shouldn't be introduced on Day 4 or beyond unless they have confidence that the probabilities will increase beyond that (I.E. MDT or HIGH risk event criteria) by the time Day 1/verification hour rolls around.

Radar over Iowa lit up pretty good. New blue box includes Madison, although complex crossing the MS is mostly sub-severe ATTM. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I have to suspect low-level shear wasn't much if any better in SW WI on Tuesday, with much less impressive instability parameters. Sometimes the atmosphere just behaves oddly and things happen on such a small scale they can't be resolved by any model. How many times have we seen big honking supercells struggle to produce tornadoes because the dewpoint was 2 degrees too low, or the RFD too wet, or not enough 0-1km SRH, while those teeny little thundershowers spun them up like nobody's business?

Tornado probs slashed back to 5% at 1630Z without explanation. Marginal wind probs expanded into WI, just barely touching Madison.

About time that happened at least once in 2018.

MDT risk incoming per activity loop graphic. Site says 13Z was issued 15 minutes ago but nothing else has updated.

Tube near Argyle was actually rather pretty per video. I never saw much if any clearing make it into WI ahead of those little cells on visible so not sure what they found that they liked.

Still got this teensie little tornado warned cell coming up at me. Lmao.

Boy did you ever call it. Despite 3 tornado reports, all were brief and all unwarned except the last which was based on a law enforcement report. I've forgotten what a supercell radar signature looks like.

Meanwhile we're down to marginal risk, that report was in an area that's now been cut out of even the 2% zone. SMH.

Kansas City cell looks to be producing. That was supposed to be our storm!

Second tornado reported, actually occurred earlier but report came in later. In Grant County, confirmed by video according to LSR. Also unwarned. MKX (although this second report was in ARX's CWA) has been the king of false alarm tornado warnings in marginal situations. Of course the year they decide to stop doing it is when the storms actually produce. Always something in 2018. The fact that these teeny thundershowers are producing brief spin-ups shows that the low-level shear is there, but they couldn't have held off 3-4 more hours for some heating to take place ahead of them?

Lol brief tornado already reported in Lafayette County, WI just after 11:30. If confirmed that would be the 4th tornado in WI this year, and at least the second that's occurred without a tornado warning in effect, and I believe ALL of them have occurred without a tornado watch in effect.