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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies

    July 3-9 Severe weather

    SPC says "meh" with just a marginal risk in place for Day 2. Keeping an eye on Wednesday locally but would like to see the front slow down a tad so it doesn't end up a LP of Michigan event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
  2. CheeselandSkies

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    ...and Wisconsin.
  3. CheeselandSkies

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    As they say in Ireland..."Whale oil beef hooked!"
  4. CheeselandSkies

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    That year we actually had some decent tornado events (not including Iowa troll days) in this part of the country by the end of May. Particularly the 10th and 30th.
  5. CheeselandSkies

    June 2-9 Great Plains area Svr Activity

    Has it dying out and missing me to the west.
  6. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    It's early, but I have yet to see anything strongly suggesting EF4 damage, let alone EF5.
  7. CheeselandSkies

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    That figures, on a day when I and most others were expecting the typical problem of the WF getting hung up to the south to be the fly in the ointment (if there was one).
  8. CheeselandSkies

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    Some (myself included) are finding the dense clustery convection (even with strong UH streaks) apparent on the HRRR and 3KM NAM concerning for chaseable tornado potential. I'll re-post what I just posted on ST Discord: I admit I often fail to do this enough, so let's go through some of the factors that usually lead to the convective mess/quick upscale growth the CAMs are hinting at. Low-mid level VBV? Not really seeing it. Shear vectors parallel to the initiating boundary? Not that I'm seeing. Too much forcing for too little capping? Possibly. Any others I'm missing? Although regarding the forcing, isn't that usually a problem with a very strong synoptic system? Per mesoanalysis, this SFC low should be deepening with time (a positive if you want storms), but not getting TOO deep (~1000MB), which might actually lead to a higher significant tornado threat.
  9. CheeselandSkies

    May 27-29 Severe Potential

    It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while.
  10. CheeselandSkies

    2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

    Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.
  11. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.
  12. CheeselandSkies

    May 2019 Discussion

    I was driving through that on my way back from my lovely (sarcasm) Oklahoma chase on Monday. Did wonders for my fuel economy I'm sure and almost pushed me off the road several times. Couldn't stay out there for today and tomorrow due to having to be back at work starting 3 AM tomorrow morning.
  13. CheeselandSkies

    Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

    Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
  14. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    That would be funny if it hadn't actually already happened. RIP TS/PS/CY. The weird and especially sad thing is, for those guys that wasn't their chasing style at all.
  15. CheeselandSkies

    Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

    If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.
  16. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Hot diggity. ...and yeah, I've never understood exactly what separates a "PDS" warning from a TORE. I would guess proximity to a populated area, but I have seen "PDS" warnings used instead even when the couplet looked to be approaching a town/city.
  17. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    If a 5/3/99-like event occurred every time it popped up as an analog on a forecast sounding, every human settlement in Oklahoma and Kansas would have been leveled several times over by now. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
  18. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    It's almost all for MCS junk.
  19. CheeselandSkies

    Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

    I give up. We don't get significant tornado outbreaks anymore. Mother Nature is just trying to drown us.
  20. CheeselandSkies

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    DDC/Chapman in 2016, maybe? And even those days were kind of subtle in the medium to long range. My eyes were on that Thursday when the main trough was progged to finally eject into the warm sector. However (surprise surprise) it turned into a VBV-plagued convective crapfest.
  21. CheeselandSkies

    Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

    I didn't used to mind but this decade particularly the latter half has gotten me to that point. I officially hate living in Wisconsin.
  22. CheeselandSkies

    May 2019 Discussion

    Naturally.
  23. CheeselandSkies

    May 2019 Discussion

    Why has this spring been such trash? I thought it would be better since we didn't have the awful late winter SSWE. Is it all down to the -NAO?
  24. CheeselandSkies

    May 8 & 9 Possible severe weather

    Yeah, I got suckered out too. No way in h*** was I going into Lie-owa despite HRRR's insistence, so poked my way down to Forreston, IL and stayed there until about 4:45 (Ironically, about the same place and time that I threw in the towel on Rochelle day in 2015, now unlike then I have a smartphone and thus access to data just about anywhere, instead of having to find open public wi-fi). Got home shortly after 6, also about the same time I got home that day. However unlike that day, I didn't pull up GR Level 3 to see a flying eagle with debris ball 10 miles from where I'd been less than 90 minutes earlier, and repeatedly slam my head into my desk.
  25. CheeselandSkies

    May 8 & 9 Possible severe weather

    Down to marginal at 13Z.
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