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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    3K NAM hinted at this which is one of the reasons I didn't drive 4-5 hours into IL. I think if we got some heating a little earlier (and maybe less midday convection in IL interdicting the moisture return) we could have had something more significant up this way.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    New warning with cell in northern part of Dane Co.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Tornado warning on small cell in southern Dane County. This is why I stayed home lol. Edit: Gone. Was based on an IMO suspect funnel cloud report, velocity never showed much of anything.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Suddenly a severe thunderstorm warning here.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Satellite showing clearing pushing in there as well as NW IL. If I'm still going to chase today it'll be because something promising fires there.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Annnnd the clouds have thickened up again. Vis sat looks like we should be almost clear, but looking out my window tells a different story.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Sky starting to brighten here. @madwx
  8. CheeselandSkies
    I think I'm cancelling chase plans for today. Anything north of at least I-72/74 is going to be messy garbage, and moving at 60 MPH (per the warning currently in Knox/Peoria Counties). Got too used to these (sometimes ridiculously) early season setups performing after 3/5/22, 3/31/23 and 2/8/24.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    1630Z outlook trimmed all of WI and most of northern IL out of any risk above Marginal. 3K NAM runs were showing high EHI values up to the WI/IL border.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    ...and with more favorable timing, at that (triple point pushing in at closer to 21Z instead of 18Z). A frustrating amount of flip flopping for inside of 48 hours from the event.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    As I suspected; latest NAM crashed way down on the forecast EHI/STP values over northern Illinois compared to just 0Z last night.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Again, still somewhat skeptical on this as a widespread/significant outbreak which is why I think SPC was wise to hold off on an initial Day-3 Moderate. I could easily see a scenario where the northern part of the risk area (a.k.a. us) gets borked by morning convection and the southern part by veered low-level winds and outflow interactions (like yesterday).
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Well that sure turned around quick. Wasn't I just seeing a bunch of long range outlooks that had positive anomalies in the East/Midwest?
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Fatality reported at Valparaiso, IN, apparently due to wind rolling a semi truck onto a person.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Tornado-warned supercell southwest of Centralia, IL. Low-level rotation doesn't look tremendous, but definitely present.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Severe warned cell rolling through the northern Chicago metro.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Had a nice couple hours of thunderstorms rolling through early this morning. That followed by this afternoon's 70s and sunshine ought to kickstart the greenup around here. @madwx
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Eh, to me garbage in early spring is sustained much BA conditions, which I'm not really seeing. Lots of temperature whiplash and chances for precip, which we need. Edit: @Chicago Storm beat me to the punch. Although, conditions can vary quite a bit across the region. I've seen on here how someone from Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Dayton/Cincinnati can have entirely different perceptions of a given season.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    NWS forecast for next week Wednesday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    0Z GFS wants to give southern Wisconsin a wintry mix with the low on Sunday. Yuck.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Pretty sure the CFS has already backed off considerably on that. Noah Bergren was the guy who was on air with Trent Okerson at WPSD covering the December 2021 tornado outbreak live. Now he's at FOX 35 in Orlando.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Not even within the general thunder contour for today:
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