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CheeselandSkies

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  1. CheeselandSkies
    With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    NWS forecast for next week Wednesday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    0Z GFS wants to give southern Wisconsin a wintry mix with the low on Sunday. Yuck.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Pretty sure the CFS has already backed off considerably on that. Noah Bergren was the guy who was on air with Trent Okerson at WPSD covering the December 2021 tornado outbreak live. Now he's at FOX 35 in Orlando.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Not even within the general thunder contour for today:
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Nice to get some rain that's not imbued with Texas dust.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, liking the drought removal over our area, not a fan of the widespread drought/drought development over the Plains. Maybe it will keep sending more of the our way but will we be able to see them?
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Interesting, I keep hearing a lot of talk about how we just had a big SSWE. I used to think those inevitably led to prolonged cold springs in the East/Midwest.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    If they go into the LSRs as tornado reports, they'll appear on the SPC page. However, they won't go into the official count if not confirmed by survey.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Again, LCLs weren't looking prohibitive on the CAM (mainly HRRR) forecast soundings even as late as 09-10Z this morning, problem is they didn't verify.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Actually a decent patch of clearing (including [lack of] dust) seems to be working its way into WC IL at the moment. Wouldn't be the morning of a chase day without a few headscratchers from the atmosphere, I guess.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    RAP/HRRR crashed back down to earth hard starting around 11Z this morning. Not sure if the dust had anything to do with it but it's also gonna ruin the photogenic potential of any convection this afternoon.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Looks almost pitch black outside with a reddish tint.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Regardless of whatever else happens, had my first thunder of the year a few minutes ago and it was a doozy. Flash momentarily stung my eyes even though I had my back turned to the windows, followed by a boom that made my apartment building vibrate. Wasn't even really expecting anything more than cold rain at home in the morning with temps in the 30s.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Of course, now the HRRR has dramatically backed off its ominous runs from just a few hours ago. Seems the dewpoints will verify on the lower end after all. Still might be a photogenic mini-supercell or two.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Yes, however HRRR was bullish off the bat which raised my eyebrows. 3KM NAM and FV3 less so but had the same general idea. Now nearly all CAMs and the RAP have significantly uptrended with moisture.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    With a 10 hatch in Illinois, I think today is thread worthy.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Was thinking yesterday Ottawa to Pontiac area looked like a good target. Nice open terrain there, too.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Definitely not "too high to touch the ground." I've been burned multiple times in the recent past by not chasing after underestimating seemingly marginal moisture.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    If temps stay in the low 60s (not unreasonable), low 50s dews are plenty for a doable LCL. HRRR is actually suggesting mid or even small pockets of upper 50s are possible. I would have expected it to be mixing to the low 40s.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    A bit surprised they are not mentioning a tornado threat whatsoever given the strong shear and the sweet spot of 3CAPE pooling on the HRRR. These seem to be the kind of setups that are conducive for low-topped spinners in this region.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    0Z HRRR actually portrays a decent environment over S. WI early-mid afternoon Wednesday, although it doesn't explicitly break out rotating cells.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    February 8th 2024 definitely opened my eyes to the range of surface T/Td conditions in which significant are possible, along with Winterset day in 2022.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Looks more interesting than last Friday from a chase standpoint from where I'm coming from.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    A fair amount of wind reports into southern Wisconsin last night, one pretty close to me although I didn't notice anything too intense, must have been a quite localized gust. Didn't even see/hear any lightning/thunder. I think there was a heavier cell that moved north-northwest through Rock into south-central/southeastern Dane County that was probably responsible for most of those reports. @madwx You see anything?
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