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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    12Z 3K doesn't have the WF getting much north of the IA/MO line, and rakes MO with supercells. Unfortunately that'd be out of range for me for a work-night chase.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Yup. Definitely would rather see the low intensifying with the mass response pulling the warm front northward or at least stationary.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Of course, right as they do that, the 06Z NAM (by far the strongest model supporting this solution) comes in with a less focused, strung out surface low.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Day 3 introduces slight risk for IA/IL/MO with hatched area. Supercells with "all hazards" possible per disco.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    NWS Quad Cities not really sold, don't even mention the NAM solutions in their afternoon AFD. Just hail potential Wednesday night and mainly a rainfall event for Thursday.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Besides, on that plot posted above, moisture isn't even really a concern here. 500mb actually looked a little better on the 12Z, with what appears to be a negatively tilted shortwave swinging across the region at 00Z. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Of course.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Scarcely a drop today, everything managed to miss just to the southeast. Looks like this next little batch coming up between Belleville and Fitchburg will, too.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Reds are outbounds, so in that case, winds blowing to the north. Could represent a surge of inflow. Generally when one color dominates like that it's either that or RFD depending on where the radar is.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Which radar site is that? KMKX?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Also not sure why a 348 hour temperature anomaly map belongs in the severe weather thread, unless he's trying to troll?
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Wrong thread, guys.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, hope tomorrow produces.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise Day 2 marginal risk upgrade for southern WI with 2% delineation. Haven't looked too deeply into it but the way this "winter" is going around here, anything is possible.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, as I said hope those CPC precip outlooks posted in the spring LR thread verify, although would like to see green extending into even more of IA/WI/MN.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Would like to see more of the AA precip chances extend into WI/northern IA/MN/SD, but I'll take EC. +temp/-precip is no bueno.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Don't give him any ideas.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Still blew the daily record out of the water, but I don't think we'll get as warm as earlier thought (pretty sure I saw some 71s or 72s in the forecast) because we were expected to get more sunshine this afternoon.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Would beat 2/28/17 by a day, lol. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170228_1630.html
  20. CheeselandSkies
    It's true that it's difficult for tornadoes and damaging winds to occur when storms are not surface-based, but the elevated significant hailer is very much a thing.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    15Z HRRR started to downtrend the impressive supercells the earlier runs had across northern Illinois, and 17Z effectively loses them entirely.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    That's true in a broad sense, but too much of a good thing is possible when you are dealing with shallow moisture.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    A bit concerned about mixing issues with the full sunshine, SPC notes the same in their outlook especially WRT potential.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, that's a spicy run. If that stays consistent this morning, chase is a go. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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