CheeselandSkies

Anything in the teleconnections that would support the powerhouse being shown on the last several runs of the GFS around the 1/9-10 timeframe? Location, type and ceiling of impacts all way up in the air at this range of course, but a system of that caliber would certainly be very interesting to track regardless.

Overachiever here in Madison due to changeover not occurring as quickly as expected. Totals won't be super impressive but it was ripping fatties for most of the morning. That and a loose dog on the westbound Beltline Highway (variously US 12/14/18/151 across the south edge of the city) made the commute a nightmare. https://www.wmtv15news.com/2023/12/28/dog-stops-traffic-beltline-literally/

Hey, at least the GFS is giving us fantasy range crush jobs now (for southern WI, still rain for Chicago).

Category 3, lol. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

https://people.com/al-michaels-wont-call-nfl-playoffs-for-nbc-amid-criticism-8415276

That'll do it.

Intercepted the Keota, IA EF4 back on March 31. I'll link to my post on StormTrack since I purged my attachments on here a few months ago (plus due to the limits I couldn't fit them all, anyway). https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2023-03-31-reports-ar-ia-il-in-mo-ms-tn.32371/post-376146 Not sure if you're a member there, or if you can see the attachments if you're not. If not, my photos are on Flickr as well. https://flickr.com/photos/andywskies/albums/72157655308092622/

Yikes... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Now that I've finally caught a sig on my own, just to prove to myself that I can, thinking about joining a CoD chase tour in the spring.

That brought down a tree over the mouth of our driveway (I was living at home with my parents near Stoughton, WI at the time). My dad and I both took off work and it took us the entire day to clear the driveway using a John Deere 112 garden tractor with a snowblower attachment (single stage, so it couldn't throw that paste for shit) and a little Toro push snowblower. I have video, too but I killed my old YouTube channel. Maybe I'll reupload it next year for the 15th anniversary.

Hey, I prefer warmth (although that's in relative terms by Wisconsin winter standards), but I try not to troll.

Welp, we're already 1:1 on potential events:rug pulls on the season. Why does the GFS even go out to 384 hours if it's that bad at 120 hours?

GFS went from having the surface low over Indiana at FH126 to having it over Green Bay at FH084 on the 06Z run that just came in. If it was April, I'd love that trend.

Powerhouse on the 12Z/18Z GFS for next Saturday would cause winter wx issues here as well as threat down south. Good times.

00Z WRF-ARW would be...problematic, to say the least across LA/MS. Consistent with its previous (12Z) run. HRRR looks pretty rough too, has uptrended somewhat from earlier runs.

Yeah, a couple of those runs with the big western trough hinted at the potential for something more into the Midwest/Ohio Valley region in mid-November (something like 2002, 2005 or 2013) but nothing really came to fruition.

SPC starting to hint at it but exactly when/where/ceiling all still quite uncertain at this point. *Edit: Just noticed this is yesterday's 4-8, they're waiting quite a bit longer than usual to release today's.

Until someone explained it to me, whenever I would see that name posted I would think of former NFL cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie because that's the only place I'd previously seen/heard that name.

Possibly some potential in there somewhere, as well?

Yeah, 2008 overall was a balls to the wall kind of year for both and in the Midwest. Occurring as they did in my young adult years it and 2010-'11 really upped my expectations for La Ninas which this recent stretch largely did not live up to. My dad was among those stuck on the Interstate on 2/6, on his way home from work.

SPC Day 4 highlight for parts of IA/MN/WI. Don't see that in late October too often.

...and beautiful.

Had some interest in severe potential for tomorrow but it hasn't trended too impressively. Has some elements of a classic cold core setup with the moisture tongue getting pulled back into the TP, but just seems like the ingredients are out of phase on the models. All the flow is well out to the east in the warm sector, where there's no CAPE.

That's surprising, considering the extremely prolific (and rather more impactful) outbreak that occurred over several days in November, 1992, tellingly dubbed "The Widespread Outbreak." Both 2004 and 2005 had quite active Novembers for (and, of course, extremely active and impactful Atlantic hurricane seasons) despite rather different ENSO states. They also had quite different springs for activity. 2004 might still be the best chase season this millennium for anyone who's been chasing that long, if they managed to score the storm of the day on May 12th, 22nd and/or 24th, 29th, and June 12th. 2005 had a mediocre to poor May, although it likewise featured a rather active period in the first half of June. I remember pulling up the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research site (Pivotal Weather didn't exist at the time, and I didn't know about the CoD site) on my dial-up connection and seeing that trough coming in on the 180-hour GFS frame. It still only goes out to 192 hours on that site!