CheeselandSkies

Finally posted full video of the storm from a week ago today with near-constant lightning (including the bolt striking the TV tower) and vigorous gust front winds.

The mets where I work are definitely siding more with the Euro, already hoisting "First Alert Days" for heat Sunday and Monday.

Seems to have stopped for now.

Is anyone else suddenly getting their inbox flooded with "new reply" emails regarding this, or any other threads on this forum? It started for me a couple days ago, and they were all for replies that were several hours to several days old. I changed my follow preferences to "no email" (which I thought it was already set to, hence why I wasn't getting the emails before) and it continued, so I unfollowed the thread entirely and it still continues.

So a dewpoint of about 55 should be a good compromise forecast, right?

Flood watch actually out for tomorrow's anticipated rains.

Yeah, it's like this whole spring/summer decided to do everything backwards. Although not unheard of in recent years. Anecdotally 2018 and 2021 were similar IMBY. Boring and dry springs/early summers followed by much more active from mid-July and/or August on.

Marginal pulled back along WI/IL line on Day 2 update, to go along with tomorrow's rain event. Most of IN/OH/SW LM included as well. 5/5/2 W/H/, so far. I think low timing is just a little too fast for us, though. It's gone through and low-level winds are veered by the time daytime heating kicks in.

More cells moving in from the west, small but still prolific lightning producers.

Best storm of the year at home for me (beating July 28 because the lightning was just as frequent but more visible, plus we had a long-duration blast of ~40 MPH gust front winds). Heaviest part of the core with probable hail missed me to the SW.

Happy 3rd anniversary of the MOAD (Mother of all Derechos). Attached is the initial Day 1 outlook with reports.

Interesting. I haven't found a hornet nest in years. I think 2012 was the last one.

We'll see if we even get a drop tonight. Funny, as of 3 days ago SPC was expecting us to be in the prime tornado risk area for today. Trying to remember the last time a good summer MCV outbreak didn't miss southern Wisconsin to the south. Might have to go all the way back to July 22nd, 2010.

Yesterday Day 4 outlook was talking about warm front with primary threat over southern WI. Last 2 NAM runs have like zero EHI north of about I-64 in IL. Ironically, after the GFS was the most progressive solution by far the last couple days, the 18Z actually retrogrades the low center a bit from 21Z Sunday to 00Z Monday. Even so, the warm sector environment isn't very impressive up north along the triple point/WF, mucked up by widespread ongoing convection at 00Z Monday. Moreover, it seems this system has trended sort of disjointed, with the SFC low still forecast in a favorable position for a S WI/N IL tornado threat, but the main 500mb jet now forecast much further south, with the speed max/left exit region being over SW IN/KY. This is why they shouldn't bother getting too cute with these outlooks in July/August.

Yeah looks like massive amounts of rain wrecks the instability.

Good write-up from LOT:

...and 0Z NAM now flipped to progressive solution with warm sector into central/even southern IN by 00Z Monday. Sayonara.

18Z GFS might be the start of the cave, finally has the low along the MS River at 00Z Monday. Environment still doesn't look super impressive, though* (at least not over nearly as widespread an area as the Day 4 highlight). Seems like the trough comes out a bit positively tilted with most of the flow hanging on the back side. Meanwhile, 12Z NAM had the sfc low center over northern WI at 00Z Monday; 18Z has it over the IA/MO/IL confluence, but at about the same longitude. Lots yet to be sorted out. *No doubt due in large part to the massive amount of convection the model breaks out.

GFS is still vastly more progressive than the other models. Latest (06Z) run has the low over Milwaukee at 18Z Sunday, while 06Z NAM has it west of Mason City, IA at that time (as far out as it goes). 00Z Euro (can't see 06Z on free Pivotal) has it pretty much right over Mason City. Again this does seem to be a known bias of the GFS, so not surprising SPC is siding with other guidance. Euro also deepens the low 2MB from 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday...

Also, 5 days in a row with a SLGT+ highlight from SPC. August > May.

Uncanny.

Latest NAM has the low over La Crosse at 12Z Sunday, still might be mistimed for us. If it was there at 00Z Monday... Edit: On that run, eastern Iowa and possibly parts of western IL look interesting on Saturday evening. SPC highlight for that day has been much further west.

Wonder when the GFS will cave. Today's 12Z still has the action in Lower MI/NW OH at 00Z Monday, although it does seem a tad bit further west with the low than previous runs.

ENSO impact on severe is really hard to gauge. For example the Super Nino December of 2015 had two major tornado outbreaks in four days (12/23 MS/TN, 12/26 TX); but December 2021 (Nina, I'm sure) had two massive ones as well. December 1, 2018 (weak Nina IIRC) also featured an unusually far north and prolific outbreak in Illinois.