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CheeselandSkies

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  1. CheeselandSkies
    Earlier northward trend to the HRRR runs seems to have been a mirage; will get clipped at most here in Madison, and that only if that northernmost "kink" in the bow over Lafayette/Green Counties can surge northeastward.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    More recent runs of the HRRR ticking north a bit... Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Majority of CAM solutions are leaning toward a miss south for most of Wisconsin, thus SPC having the Enhanced where it is.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Furthermore, tomorrow seems like the kind of pattern that has historically supported sneaky S WI/N IL summer sig events...if everything lines up just right. Currently, none of the 33-37 hour CAM solutions really suggest such, but as we know...
  5. CheeselandSkies
    SPC's 13Z outlook is a case study in "the struggle is real." Found my one plant stand blown over again by the round we got this morning; and we got so much rain between the multiple rounds since yesterday evening that any in pots lacking drain holes were being drowned in water. HRRR thinks we should get in on some more boomers this aft/eve.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Packing a decent punch here despite no longer being warned. Twice blown over one of the plant stands on my balcony. #wewillrebuild
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Pretty sure none of the CAMs I usually check on a regular basis (HRRR, 3K NAM, FV3) accurately resolved the MCS currently passing through southern Wisconsin.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Well, I hope 12Z 3K NAM is off since it has the next three days being a big fat nothingburger for southern WI.
  9. CheeselandSkies
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Catching up on some uploads:
  11. CheeselandSkies
    One year ago today: Spring/summer 2024 has featured relatively more storms (and associated tornadoes) than 2023, but last year was far kinder to me as far as actually seeing them.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Don't want to jinx it but I'm appreciating the lack of >200 AQI days thus far.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Per the webcam at Cassville, the Mississippi River is finally going down a bit. It was certainly high on the 1st when I headed out to catch the Canadian Pacific Railway's restored steam locomotive on its return trip from a tri-national tour special that began in April.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Now highlights for Day 3, 4, 5 covering various parts of MN/IA/WI/IL/IN.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    SPC put out a pretty large Day 5 areal highlight this morning, for a good chunk of MN/WI. I'm thinking this is mostly for bowing MCS possibility Sunday night.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Surprised only three reports on the SPC page. Not as prolific as I expected, but what did occur was definitely impressive. From longtime chaser Dan Robinson:
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Beryl proved an efficient producer yesterday, and is expected to remain so today. 10%/Enh risk now up for a portion of the western OH Valley.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Beryl proving to be an efficient tornado producer. CAM solutions yesterday hinted at this, and SPC responded by introducing a (somewhat unusual for TC-driven events) 10% area.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Surprised MKX is so bullish on rain chances tonight/tomorrow morning since both HRRR and 3KM NAM have southern WI dry during that period.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    The Wisconsin River basin has seen multiple severe flood events in the last 15-20 years; starting with 2007-'08 and again in 2018. The Mid-Continent Railway Museum in North Freedom (along the Baraboo River) got flooded in each of those. I'm concerned that that area seems to be getting bulls-eyed a lot in the recent rounds of precip, as well.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    06Z HWRF takes Beryl into relatively remote regions of the Quintana Roo coast, near the Belize border, but everything north of there is still very much in play. For our 1st anniversary in 2022 my wife and I spent a few days at a resort in Puerto Morelos, a little town south of Cancun/due north of Cozumel island.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    18Z HAFS-A is interesting...shows Beryl getting sheared (with help from Jamaica land interaction) to almost a naked swirl by FH036...only to rapidly put itself back together again before the Yucatan. 18Z HWRF is slightly less weenie fuel than the 12Z, but still keeps Beryl a formidable hurricane at closest approach to Jamaica, at landfall in the Yucatan, and on approach to Texas at the end of the run.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Hurricane version of the Dominator/TIV.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Annual reminder that global models can't completely resolve TC cores and their pressures/winds are not meant to be taken verbatim. That's what the regional hurricane models are for, and Beryl has been outperforming those which is rather unusual, given their known tendency to overcook these systems.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    That was like when Typhoon Manghkut broke the HWRF as the model turned it into Earth's version of the Great Red Spot; 777mb, >300kt.
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