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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Which radar site is that? KMKX?
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Also not sure why a 348 hour temperature anomaly map belongs in the severe weather thread, unless he's trying to troll?
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Wrong thread, guys.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, hope tomorrow produces.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise Day 2 marginal risk upgrade for southern WI with 2% delineation. Haven't looked too deeply into it but the way this "winter" is going around here, anything is possible.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, as I said hope those CPC precip outlooks posted in the spring LR thread verify, although would like to see green extending into even more of IA/WI/MN.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Would like to see more of the AA precip chances extend into WI/northern IA/MN/SD, but I'll take EC. +temp/-precip is no bueno.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Don't give him any ideas.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Still blew the daily record out of the water, but I don't think we'll get as warm as earlier thought (pretty sure I saw some 71s or 72s in the forecast) because we were expected to get more sunshine this afternoon.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Would beat 2/28/17 by a day, lol. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day1otlk_20170228_1630.html
  11. CheeselandSkies
    It's true that it's difficult for tornadoes and damaging winds to occur when storms are not surface-based, but the elevated significant hailer is very much a thing.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    15Z HRRR started to downtrend the impressive supercells the earlier runs had across northern Illinois, and 17Z effectively loses them entirely.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    That's true in a broad sense, but too much of a good thing is possible when you are dealing with shallow moisture.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    When you have a relatively shallow low-level moist layer (only up to about 850mb or a little above at best on a couple soundings I just cherry-picked off this morning's 12Z 3KM NAM), vertical mixing (helped along by sunshine) can bring down that drier air, lowering surface dewpoints, thus raising LCLs (cloud bases) and possibly increasing low-level capping. At least, that's how I understand it.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    A bit concerned about mixing issues with the full sunshine, SPC notes the same in their outlook especially WRT potential.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, that's a spicy run. If that stays consistent this morning, chase is a go. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, I thought the same after today's 12Z HRRR run. 18Z seems to be an improvement although not quite ideal.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    It's interesting, when they initially put out the Day 4-8 areal highlights on Thursday, SPC seemed pretty confident that moisture return would be less of an issue with this setup than would be expected for the time of year. What changed?
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Yup, keeping an eye on it as posted above.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    06Z GFS presents the area roughly near Ottawa-Streator, IL as a possible chase target. FH090 00Z sounding shows a stout low-level inversion but it ought not to be as strong during the preceding couple of hours. There's decent streamwise vorticity in the low levels and a solid westerly component to the 500mb flow. The higher-end scenarios with this setup don't look to be panning out at this point, but the atmosphere keeps trying to tell me it only takes one (storm) in the sweet spot.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    A few flakes flying outside, but it's all melting upon contact on pavement.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    00Z GFS. Near Oglesby/La Salle, IL:
  23. CheeselandSkies
    @andyhb with a nice succinct breakdown of why the models are having such a hard time getting a handle on this setup over in Central/Western.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Zero mention from MKX in the AFD or HWO despite SPC Day 6 risk going right up to the state line and plenty of model runs nudging the warm sector into the southern tier or two of counties at least. Meanwhile the mets at my work have already gone with a "First Alert Day" for Tuesday.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Just a few small, dirty piles/patches left on north-facing/shady embankments/hills or in parking lots where the plows stacked up the two January storms that comprised the bulk of our "winter." Reviewing my railfan pictures/video, that's quite a difference from five years ago today: Ironically, most of that cover likely was the result of the "clipper train" discussed in this thread:
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