CheeselandSkies

00Z HRRR at least sort of depicted the severe-warned storms were getting here right now better than previous runs. It has consistently wanted to send tonight's eventual MCS much further north and east of most other CAMS, missing southern Wisconsin (and thus most of SPC's Enhanced area).

Not good. At least Radarscope on my phone is working for me.

Few if any CAMs really had the activity ongoing over southern WI right now; certainly not the HRRR. Something is up with my GR Level 3 and it won't load any radar data.

For all the storms this year, been a while since we had an old-fashioned, southeastward-moving midnight classic Midwest 'Rachel. At least, one affecting southern Wisconsin.

Argyle looks bad in the first look from our live camera at work this morning. This building was a historic church, and look at that tree damage. We don't see that in southern WI too often.

Seems like we missed the heavier totals where I am on the far SW side. Keeping an eye out for some action this afternoon.

Multiple 0Z CAMs came in pretty hot for tomorrow across IA into S. WI. HRW-FV3 did as well, but it won't let me attach more. Still on the fence whether to try my luck with attempting to get a in Iowa again (after Keota last year, I've struck out three times there this year including April 26 and May 21), stay close to home and hope those discrete cells in WI on the 3KM verify, or stay *at* home and just watch the derecho roll in.

Edge of the polygon missed me by about a mile to the east.

Looks like watch in MN busted hard, strongest deep-layer shear remained behind the cold front with no sustained discrete development out ahead of it.

More recent runs of the GFS since my earlier post show a more robust low-level response; so could certainly get interesting on Thursday afternoon/evening.

SPC has Day 4/5 outlooks out for portions of the central-northern Plains to Midwest for Wednesday/Thursday. Global models show moisture returning north under a brisk northwest flow aloft; but not much in the way of a discernible surface response (deep SLP center, 850mb LLJ) for a focused threat. Will have to keep an eye on finer-scale mesoscale details for that, if it materializes.

Tonight is the 40th anniversary of the Barneveld, WI F5 of 1984. Still by far the most significant tornado since 1950 for the south-central part of the state. Although we get our share of severe weather in southern Wisconsin, we average a Plains/Dixie Alley caliber cyclic, intense-violent tornadic supercell about once every 10-15 years. To have one occur in the middle of the night was even more extraordinary. With every regional severe weather event in my memory; storms that form as supercells in Iowa have invariably either grown upscale or weakened by the time they reach here late at night. https://www.wmtv15news.com/2024/06/07/barnaveld-torando-40-years-later/

Hadn't seen a single one in Wisconsin...then went to the Brookfield Zoo with my cousin, his wife & 2 kids today.

Amazing how the haves and have-nots really lock in for a particular season across a relatively small region. I remember some recent springs where Madison was among the "have-nots" while nearby parts of northern IL, eastern IA or central WI got repeated rounds of precipitation and it sure was annoying.

Looks like another 2% MCV threat popped up for the WI/IL stateline region on the Day 2 outlook (marginal was way down in S MO on yesterday's Day 3 outlook). SPC is on top of this one so it probably won't do anything.

True; but that's one of the variables that can come into play with a long-tracker.

Latest HRRR and the abundance of sunshine in Illinois (despite overcast and steady rain here all morning and early afternoon) has me thinking "Not so fast" to my above, despite SPC's lack of even a 2% tornado contour in NE-NC IL/SE WI on the current outlook.

Well, my chase today is hosed. Had expected/hoped the OFB would end up closer to/merge with the synoptic warm front extending east from a low near Quincy through the Springfield, IL area and possibly east into west-central IN as per the forecast thinking from about 3 days ago. If I wanted to chase in the jungle, I'd stay in Wisconsin.

Yup...seems it's always in the close-in quick RI'ers that make the 130kt+ landfalls...Michael, Ida, Ian, etc. The 10-day basin crossing ACE machines like Ivan and Irma are less likely to be as intense at U.S. landfall (if they make one), even if multiple model runs and NHC advisories call for them to be. Hugo was actually something of an anomaly in that regard, remaining a 115-120kt (sources seem to vary) Cat. 4 at time of SC landfall.

That's the supercell composite; STP is 15.7 (cin)/11.8 (fix). Still very impressive numbers.

Oh, my goodness.

Reality must have set in for the HRRR as the 18-19Z runs have considerably backed off on the intensity/updraft helicity with the simulated cells that redevelop in the 22-00Z timeframe compared to the 15Z-17Z runs. Although, we are just now finally seeing some peeks of sunshine here.

Surprisingly, HRRR is rather insistent over multiple runs that we will get enough destabilization for a renewed severe threat this evening here in southern WI.

Looks like HRRR was right yesterday per SPC's 13Z update, ongoing complex and its cold pool will bollox afternoon supercell chances north of IL/WI line. NWS, and the mets at my work were way off predicting a sunny morning with storms holding off till mid/late afternoon.

Meanwhile, 18Z 3K NAM wants a Tuesday redux for Wisconsin, with UH tracks extending way north of where SPC has the slight.