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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Severe warning on that more eastern Iowa cell, and looks like a couplet starting to form. Maybe I shoulda chased out there after all.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Funnel cloud reported near Dows, IA earlier. Legit supercell there, looks like another one might be trying to fire up near Waverly/Bremer.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Eastern half or more of the Enhanced has yet to be put under a watch, meanwhile there's one in effect that's entirely within a marginal risk in the mid-Atlantic.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Frustrating, seeing as it's the only CAM that updates hourly. You'd think at some point during the day it would get a handle on things. Edit: 19Z is more active for us. We'll wait and see, I guess.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Not liking the HRRR trends of splitting southern Wisconsin to the north/south this evening. As of yesterday evening we were squarely in the bulls-eye on multiple runs, of multiple models. We hit the severe threat hard at work this morning, now we might not even get any rain in Madison.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    I dunno, people do more than enough crazy shit around storms as it is without bringing drugs into the equation. Although, maybe a little weed would tone down the adrenaline and actually improve behavior? Although, you just know the high AF guy would be the one going 20 MPH at the front of the conga line.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I was gonna chase some storms...but I chased something else instead.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    What the heck happened to my thread? lol
  9. CheeselandSkies
    16Z mesoanalysis has STPs of 2 along the WI/IL line at 22Z this afternoon.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Not liking CAM trends...middle of the night timing now for S WI and stuff is starting to weaken. ***Edit: Referring mainly to 3K NAM and HRRR...others are all over the map with timing, placement and mode. Looks like a just sit at home and see what happens kind of day.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    11Z HRRR was rather tame for southern WI, not bringing storms in until 03-04Z tonight. However, 12Z puts a sup right through Madison at 01Z.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Started a new thread to discuss today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  13. CheeselandSkies
    I think today merits its own thread at this point. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Which is fine by me since I-94 runs right through Madison.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    06Z 3K NAM seems to have a little better handle on the current IL stuff (although I think still weaker with it than reality) than the HRRR, and it fires discrete sups in southwestern WI by 22Z. Not sure why SPC would introduce a 2% region at 1730Z yesterday, only to remove it with the first SWODY1 today.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Did not expect the severe storms in Illinois overnight. Thought if we were going to get anything tonight it would be the northern WI complex diving south.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Dunno if I ever recall seeing 500mb heights exceed 600 dam before, even on a GFS fantasy range forecast. Usually the highest I see is 594.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Batten down the palms.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Nothing like a 4/26/91 analog over your house in Wisconsin...in late July. Convective mode likely won't allow for something like that, but wow.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    No heatwave bust there!
  21. CheeselandSkies
    They introduced a 2% in the 1730Z update. MS River at WI/IL line to western third of Lake Erie. Depending on MCV placement/timing, I could see tomorrow becoming one of those sneaky summer sig events for somewhere in our region. Given the forecast heat, LCL could become an issue, but dewpoints should be in the 70s. This could be a case where a little cloud cover might actually help if you're looking for a chase.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    In addition to that, the 12Z HRRR fires storms in southern WI Friday afternoon/evening, which last night's 00Z (first run to be in range) wasn't doing.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    18Z NAM at FH054 remains quite interesting for Friday evening at FH054 with very strong low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs, a modest/breakable cap, and >5,000 j/kg MLCAPE in parts of S WI/N IL. The surface chart appears to depict the reason for these enhanced hodographs as a sort of secondary surface low near the MS river, out ahead of the main one which it depicts over the IA/NE border.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Would be tempting but it's even more in the heart of the metro than 7/12 was. Got lucky to glimpse the Plato/Elgin twins just before they moved into the zone of solid urban cul-de-sacs/trees/traffic. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1730.html
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