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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Latest NAM has the low over La Crosse at 12Z Sunday, still might be mistimed for us. If it was there at 00Z Monday... Edit: On that run, eastern Iowa and possibly parts of western IL look interesting on Saturday evening. SPC highlight for that day has been much further west.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Wonder when the GFS will cave. Today's 12Z still has the action in Lower MI/NW OH at 00Z Monday, although it does seem a tad bit further west with the low than previous runs.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    ENSO impact on severe is really hard to gauge. For example the Super Nino December of 2015 had two major tornado outbreaks in four days (12/23 MS/TN, 12/26 TX); but December 2021 (Nina, I'm sure) had two massive ones as well. December 1, 2018 (weak Nina IIRC) also featured an unusually far north and prolific outbreak in Illinois.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    The GFS is just way, way more progressive, with the 18Z having the low over southwest Lower Michigan at 00Z Monday. However it does seem to have a bias for this sort of thing, so we shall see. 12Z Euro OTOH is almost classic SW flow, >60kt strongly diffluent jet, left exit region over S WI/N IL. Looks like it belongs in May.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Sucks, but thankfully it's mostly going to my northeast. Looks like WI north of a line from Manitowoc northwest, and most of MI, NE 1/2 of OH, northern WV, and western PA are getting it.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    SPC mentions it, too (Saturday Day5 highlight for NE/w IA is pretty gutsy in August IMO). 06Z GFS has any potential for Sunday way east of us.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    View from my porch as the action rolled in last night. Constant lightning flashes, but no visible bolts.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Quality.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Had some interesting colors/effects with the sunset last night before the storms rolled in.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Another QLCS spinup possible near Eagle, WI.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    New tornado warning, multiple QLCS spinups possible along here.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    SVR finally extended through Dane.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Sauk County sup just went TOR.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1763.html
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Nice comma head near Friendship while embedded sup moves toward Baraboo.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Entire region getting rocked and we haven't even seen a flicker of lightning in Madison yet...looks like the HRRR was kinda right. That northern complex should at least clip us, though.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Embedded sup with the northern complex moving into Sauk County, WI as well, although it's still going to be a miss north for me unless it turns a little more right.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Holy crap. Tornado warned cell N of Maquoketa looks nasty, as well. Real potential to produce with that one. Edit: Went TORR as I typed.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Yet another tornado warning, on the MS River near St. Donatus, IA. Velocity looks like this one could do something.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Weirdest severe thunderstorm warning polygon ever just issued from the Dubuque area eastward into Jo Daviess County, IL. Whoever drew that up be smoking something bomb as hell.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    2" hail reported in Platteville.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    If it can hold together and this SW WI cluster doesn't totally sap the energy for it, that other cluster N of La Crosse should be what eventually gets to Madison.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Tornado warning in SW WI.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Watch out for more of WI now: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0561.html
  25. CheeselandSkies
    1.25"-2.75" hail reported with the Iowa supercells.
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