CheeselandSkies

Proper inland hurricane right there! Been a while since the last one that actually delivered the trifecta of significant impacts - svr, winter and synoptic wind. We'll see...

This is already way more significant than the May high risk.

If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Monday night/Tuesday morning I was driving in to work (3:00 AM start, lived in an apartment a block away from my work until the end of August but am staying with my gf at her current place across town until our new lease starts on the 14th) in a torrential downpour most of the way. Saw the lights of a utility truck in the distance as I turned onto the street. As I got closer I saw that it was half blocking our employee driveway. A big tree had come down taking out some power lines. We were on generator power and my old apartment building was blacked out. More storms this morning, sun's out now with a blue box in effect for an expected later round. So far September feels stormier than May and June in this neck of the woods!

...and Wisconsin.

Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.

Already took Wednesday off to facilitate chase possibilities that afternoon due to potential being shown into parts of the upper Midwest (unfortunately my range will still be limited since I couldn't also get Thursday off and work starts at 3AM). Still, if the setup tanks you can blame me.

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

GFS and Euro OP don't look too encouraging if you want warmth and storms in the Midwest. Shows a return to western ridging with the lowest 500mb heights across the eastern Lakes.

Tomorrow isn't as clear-cut as it once looked, but if the midweek system has instability problems (which 12Z GFS suggests it will) it won't be for lack of moisture....

On 12Z NAM, hodos are looking very impressive over the AL/MS border region (moreso than further west where instability is greater). Could be another scenario to watch out for prefrontal initiation in that area (as with last Sunday) if it can destabilize. Sounding attached is from a small pocket of higher CAPE depicted near and south of Columbus (ruh roh), MS. I see some slight backing on the wind barbs between 700 and 500 mb, but that doesn't look like game-breaker levels of VBV.

Arrrrgh. What happened to the advertised flip after the frigid start to March? Also, where is this supposed cold coming from? Was there another SSWE without anyone noticing? Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Well, yesterday certainly broke the trend of a lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

Since no one else has yet, I'll point out that there's a Day 4 risk area out for much of the TN Valley/Dixie Alley region. As usual still a lot of pieces to come together as to exactly how this will play out. Could be about as significant as last Saturday, or more, or less. Worth noting though since model trends have been upward for the possibility of severe weather in the area on Sunday.

The GFS valid for 3/1 kills me a little inside. 999mb surface low over SE SD, 80kt wsw jet at 500mb...and ZERO CAPE anywhere inland over the CONUS except peninsular FL. Save those for May and June, please!

I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after! *Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region.

After another round of duds in the coming week (per SPC Day 4-8), recent GFS runs have been somewhat consistent in bringing greater CAPE values into the mid-South/TN Valley beneath strong 500mb southwesterly flow around the end of the month. Of course that is still in fantasyland so we shall see. *LOL, totally different look for that timeframe on the 6Z run.

12Z GFS wants to keep western troughing in place pretty much throughout the period, but without ever developing much appreciable instability inland. I know it has a penchant for lowballing CAPE, especially at longer ranges, but so far it has been generally right about the last few systems (including those coming this week) being low-end to non-events while "King" Euro at times had a more ominous look.

I'd be down for that. I keep thinking the Plains are overdue for another truly active chase season, with a 10-14 day locked in pattern producing multiple days with multiple cells the caliber of Rozel, DDC/Chapman, Pilger, etc in May, which maybe quiets down for a bit then reloads in June, rather like 2004 and 2008 did in the last decade. Then every spring the atmosphere says "Nope!"

Oh most definitely, I'm just seeing 1988 and 2012 comparisons pop up in other threads as well and getting antsy, especially coming off this #Polarpocalypse. Not sure where those are coming from though since as you pointed out, the central CONUS has already been much wetter than the winter of 2011-12.

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though. However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.