CheeselandSkies

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

I REALLY hope this verifies.

GFS and Euro OP don't look too encouraging if you want warmth and storms in the Midwest. Shows a return to western ridging with the lowest 500mb heights across the eastern Lakes.

Tomorrow isn't as clear-cut as it once looked, but if the midweek system has instability problems (which 12Z GFS suggests it will) it won't be for lack of moisture....

On 12Z NAM, hodos are looking very impressive over the AL/MS border region (moreso than further west where instability is greater). Could be another scenario to watch out for prefrontal initiation in that area (as with last Sunday) if it can destabilize. Sounding attached is from a small pocket of higher CAPE depicted near and south of Columbus (ruh roh), MS. I see some slight backing on the wind barbs between 700 and 500 mb, but that doesn't look like game-breaker levels of VBV.

Arrrrgh. What happened to the advertised flip after the frigid start to March? Also, where is this supposed cold coming from? Was there another SSWE without anyone noticing? Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Well, yesterday certainly broke the trend of a lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

Since no one else has yet, I'll point out that there's a Day 4 risk area out for much of the TN Valley/Dixie Alley region. As usual still a lot of pieces to come together as to exactly how this will play out. Could be about as significant as last Saturday, or more, or less. Worth noting though since model trends have been upward for the possibility of severe weather in the area on Sunday.

The GFS valid for 3/1 kills me a little inside. 999mb surface low over SE SD, 80kt wsw jet at 500mb...and ZERO CAPE anywhere inland over the CONUS except peninsular FL. Save those for May and June, please!

I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after! *Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region.

After another round of duds in the coming week (per SPC Day 4-8), recent GFS runs have been somewhat consistent in bringing greater CAPE values into the mid-South/TN Valley beneath strong 500mb southwesterly flow around the end of the month. Of course that is still in fantasyland so we shall see. *LOL, totally different look for that timeframe on the 6Z run.

12Z GFS wants to keep western troughing in place pretty much throughout the period, but without ever developing much appreciable instability inland. I know it has a penchant for lowballing CAPE, especially at longer ranges, but so far it has been generally right about the last few systems (including those coming this week) being low-end to non-events while "King" Euro at times had a more ominous look.

I'd be down for that. I keep thinking the Plains are overdue for another truly active chase season, with a 10-14 day locked in pattern producing multiple days with multiple cells the caliber of Rozel, DDC/Chapman, Pilger, etc in May, which maybe quiets down for a bit then reloads in June, rather like 2004 and 2008 did in the last decade. Then every spring the atmosphere says "Nope!"

Oh most definitely, I'm just seeing 1988 and 2012 comparisons pop up in other threads as well and getting antsy, especially coming off this #Polarpocalypse. Not sure where those are coming from though since as you pointed out, the central CONUS has already been much wetter than the winter of 2011-12.

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though. However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.

Arctic outbreaks are normal in January. If they continue into late March and especially April, then it becomes a problem. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Not really, just got the first decent event of the winter Friday night into yesterday. 61-page thread (and growing) devoted to tracking that one!

It's all good. I do lurk around here a lot because it's usually the only part of the forum where severe wx discussion is ongoing this time of year.

2018's over, guys. New thread time.

It's a start. Maybe this will be better suited for another thread but I'm struggling to wrap my head around why this upcoming winter storm will not be able to produce at least a medium-ceiling severe weather episode in the warm sector. Not that I'd be able to chase it anyway but I'd just like to track some radar signatures a bit like your avatar to get the adrenaline pumping.

Perhaps a better SPC-related measure of yearly severe activity compared to high risks would be watch count. I was just looking through the archives and every year after 2012 has had fewer than 600 watches issued (tomorrow's slight risk is the last chance to get 2018 to a whopping 450). They issued 699 in 2012 and at least 800 every other year since (and including) 2000 other than (rather surprisingly, since I remember both as active years) 2007 and 2010. I think part of the drop-off can be explained by better forecasting (fewer unnecessary/"busted" watches, although they do still happen!), but there seems to be a clear drop-off in overall severe activity most of this decade, with fewer extended patterns favoring multiple moderate to high-end events like May 3-10, 2003, May 21-30, 2004, much of late May and early June 2008, or much of April 2011. Instead we see extended periods of synoptic patterns generally unfavorable to central CONUS severe weather (eastern troughing) locking in during much of what should be peak season.

I don't even know what to think at this point. I had higher hopes for 2018 because we were supposedly in a La Nina going into the spring, but it didn't help. Was it just the ill-timed SSW event that killed the spring, or was there more to it than that? The winteristas say there is a SSW event ongoing right now which is going to save the season for them, but my only concern is that it's not happening at a point where the effects will still be felt into, you know, May? Number of tornadoes: 1000 No high risk. Going to continue the streak that goes back to after June 2014 (since none of the four in 2017 should really ever have been issued, except maybe the one in January had it not covered so much of peninsular FL where VEERED WINDS were an obvious issue, although they honestly would have been just fine sticking with the MDT risk of the initial outlook) and I don't see anything that is going to flip the table in favor of more higher end events.

Enhanced (30% risk) for ARKLATEX into lower MS valley Friday. Slight risk for Dixie Saturday. Not an ideal setup but wouldn't sleep on an isolated impact event or two. This is the time of year when tornadoes in the South can strike any time of day, often out of a previously innocuous-looking QLCS, and people aren't as aware as they might be in the spring.