Wow, 12Z NAM STP values jump up to over 3 by 03Z tonight across parts of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Between terrain/trees and darkness, this is a bad combination for residents and chasers.
Can someone explain how on this forecast sounding, there is so much SRH despite the fact that the winds only gradually back with height, and in fact are depicted as pretty much unidirectional from 850 almost up to 500 mb?
Even so, hodograph looks decently curved at the low levels although a little funky higher up. Although, I have never fully wrapped my head around interpreting hodographs so I prefer to use the wind barbs on the right of the sounding to visualize the shear profile with height.
Lapse rates, while not particularly steep, don't look like an instability killer as in some other setups this year.