CheeselandSkies

You'd think the upper Midwest could get a warm April with frequent thunderstorms for once (especially considering how many warmer than average/below average snowfall Dec/Jans we've had), but you would be wrong.

Wow. Storm surge on Green Bay.

I just hope we all live to see it.

Yeah, early sun went away and HRRR has backed off on convective intensity across most of the region.

Sun popping out here most of the morning in SC WI. Last three HRRR runs with a stormier look for us this evening, although the 12Z runs lost that juicy sup tracking along the Dane/Green-Rock County line ~22-23Z that the 10-11Z runs had. @madwx

Argh, probably too far south for me on a work day same as a month prior (especially since I have to pick up an online grocery order and bring it home after work).

Steady showers here but no thunder thus far.

@madwx @Geoboy645 Here's hoping for a few rumbles this evening, am I right?

Right?

So sorry for your loss, @Jackstraw. Those stories are heartbreaking and terrifying.

Hit just as I was trying to pick up my online order from Hy-Vee on Whitney. When I unlatched my trunk the wind immediately flipped the lid all the way up. Poor clerk had to stand out in it. Then I had to unload and wrestle the cart through the door of my apartment building in that wind.

Yes. The pandemic has significantly tempered my enthusiasm for violent weather for the time being.

U.S. Supreme Court also overturned the extension to return WI absentee ballots to April 13th. Now they still have to be postmarked by tomorrow. Those who still haven't received theirs due to the massive backlog are SOL and have to vote in person if they want to vote. I see some people (not necessarily on this thread, although I have seen it once or twice) still like to throw around "socialism" and "communism" as scarewords. So, picture Chernobyl. Dr. Fauci is Valery Legasov and Boris Scherbina rolled into one. The rest of the Trump administration and the courts are Zharkov, Bryukhanov and Fomin.

It's unconscionable.

Go figure, the best chase season (and potentially, with it the most dangerous tornado season) in quite a few years would occur in the midst of this pandemic and all the logistical, legal and moral complications it has placed around interstate travel.

It's impacting the weather too (or at least our ability to predict it). Read several articles that reduced aircraft observations may negatively impact model performance.

That and, it's not feasible to enforce/follow a 100% lockdown in the U.S. Some people will continue to ignore it; but everyone still has to go out at least to get food/supplies/work if you still have it. Cases in Dane County, WI (my friend among them) have been increasing at about 10-20 per day for the last few days. We were still just under 200 at last update. I don't know if that's because we just haven't hit the exponential growth yet, or if we've actually been relatively successful in keeping the spread in check (or if we haven't been testing enough). We did seem to get a bit of an earlier start on social-distancing measures than many other places in the state.

Just found out yesterday a friend of mine is hospitalized with COVID-19. He's 39. We hung out a lot from 2014-early 2017. We haven't seen as much of each other since then for reasons that in retrospect seem kind of petty, although I did still go to some of his gigs (he's a musician here in the Madison area). I'm not really a praying man, but really hoping with every fiber of my being that he pulls through. He also has a wife and daughter.

In other news, there was just a huge ****storm on another weather forum regarding the ethics of storm chasing against state stay-at-home-unless-essential orders (at least WI and IL both have one in place, don't know about IA) and following (or not) social distancing guidelines and other precautions while chasing. It seemed to be a relatively reasonable discussion until I logged on this morning and . I would like to once again thank the atmosphere for making Saturday an easy no-go for me the morning of, despite the proximity of a 15% hatch and the dearth of quality tornado setups in the region since 2/28/17, which I didn't chase because, well...it was February.

Indeed, that is why some people are still questioning whether all this social upheaval is necessary/worth it. You have only to look at what has been happening in Italy/some other places in Europe and is starting to happen in New York to see why it's necessary. ...and if the US and the rest of the developed world was caught so much at the mercy of this virus, imagine a pandemic of a similarly communicable disease with a much higher case fatality rate (basically the plot of Contagion).

I think I've seen it once before; can't recall when though.

The Day 4-8 left something to be desired, as well RE: next Tuesday in Dixie; usually even with model disagreement the man is gung ho as can be if there's any potential at all.

Haven't seen a lot of hard data on how smoking affects COVID-19 prognosis. I saw one article that said one study showed it significantly increased the risk of complications and death, but two other studies showed no correlation. Simple logic would suggest that it increases risk since your lungs aren't as healthy as they otherwise would be when the infection starts doing its thing. Still, even though data still suggests that given adequate medical care the confirmed-case fatality rate is around 2% (still several orders of magnitude higher than the flu) with the vast majority of those being over 50 and the majority of those being over 70; I'm still hearing enough stories of people in their early 40s or 30s getting fatal or near fatal cases to make me nervous despite my relatively low risk demographics (I'm 34, nonsmoker, 5'11"/188, haven't even had a cold or flu that I remember since November 2016). I'm also concerned for my fiancée (also 34, but has several health conditions) and my parents (my dad just turned 71, my mom will turn 69 next month; so any snark about 'all the olds dying' or COVID-19 being a 'boomer remover' doesn't sit well with me). Also, I bolded "adequate" above because that's the scenario if the hospital isn't overwhelmed and you can get on a ventilator if you need to. AKA not what happened in Italy and, it's becoming apparent, New York. So, all in all, I am social-distancing the **** out of this and encouraging everyone I can to do so as well. I should add that my fiancée and I are quite fortunate that we both work in fields that are considered "essential" to continue to operate during this quasi-lockdown, so our income has so far been unaffected; yet both our employers are taking major steps to reduce the risk to their employees (she has worked from home every day this week except today, my job description requires me to be physically present but we are practicing 6' social distancing and using an obscene amount of hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes/spray several times per shift, and those members of staff who CAN work from home are).

He sounds uncharacteristically bearish on the Day 3 outlook. Doesn't even use the "T" word.

Good reminder of that's what all the social distancing policies, closings, cancellations, stay home orders, etc are for.