CheeselandSkies

Well with this winter seems the Day 5-6 bulls eye is not where you want to be if you want big snows, so definitely worth keeping an eye on. *12Z GFS buries parts of C./S. WI on the 24th with a very sharp cutoff for the far southern tier of counties. Has Madison getting double digits (and Janesville almost nothing), so per the first line of this post that won't happen.

Yay, cold rain! We'll have to see what the back side does for southern 1/3 WI, E. IA, N. IL.

Still coming down out there. Big ol' flakes, too.

Not loving the look of the GFS in the long range w/single digits and below over most of the upper Midwest into early March, yeah it's fantasyland but it keeps popping up.

I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after! *Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region.

Yikes, last night's 0z GFS run had what would be my favorite type of storm (sarcasm) a week from tomorrow. Cold rain or kitchen sink slop for me, good snows to the north and warm sector CAPE too narrow/paltry to even armchair chase some decent severe. Good thing it's 8 days out.

Possibly WI/N. IL, too. Things sure have turned around after the paltry December/early January. hawkeye_wx said it well though, the would-be big dogs have underperformed somewhat (at least for MBY) and that's really what I'm here for.

After another round of duds in the coming week (per SPC Day 4-8), recent GFS runs have been somewhat consistent in bringing greater CAPE values into the mid-South/TN Valley beneath strong 500mb southwesterly flow around the end of the month. Of course that is still in fantasyland so we shall see. *LOL, totally different look for that timeframe on the 6Z run.

Is this terrible performance confined to winter weather? How about tropical (was it running during Florence and Michael)? Has it really been tested in a significant severe weather situation (given the dearth of such over the last year, doubt it)? What about just day-to-day sun, clouds, rain, hot, cold?

Uncle!

I love RadarScope. It does need a subscription but it's only $10/year for Tier 1, which IMO is more than adequate for all but hardcore geek needs.

Watching radar, looks like a new area of snow just developed right on top of south-central WI. Some >25 dbz returns over Cottage Grove/east of Sun Prairie, should be ripping pretty good over there.

If it was beyond 10 days I would understand, but a high-end storm at 5 days out shouldn't just go away. Have the models always been this bad or is it something I've just noticed within the last couple years? Still it seems like the only big dogs whether winter, severe or tropical anymore are relative sneak attacks (like Michael for example, about 36 hours before landfall I along with most other weather watchers both amateur and professional thought mid-range Cat 3 was a reasonable ceiling if everything went right for the storm).

Been snowing for about the last 50 minutes here in Madison. So far, getting shades of our last "high-end" event with "heavy pixie dust" (teeny flakes but lots of them) at the outset.

12Z GFS wants to keep western troughing in place pretty much throughout the period, but without ever developing much appreciable instability inland. I know it has a penchant for lowballing CAPE, especially at longer ranges, but so far it has been generally right about the last few systems (including those coming this week) being low-end to non-events while "King" Euro at times had a more ominous look.

Wow, big time wallop looking likely for central WI. That map above has Madison flirting with double digit totals, although we whiffed on our previous opportunity to hit that single-storm benchmark earlier this winter. Still, what a turnaround from the bare ground of December and most of the first half of January, although the two thaws were annoying especially the second coming on the heels of the historic polar vortex.

I'd be down for that. I keep thinking the Plains are overdue for another truly active chase season, with a 10-14 day locked in pattern producing multiple days with multiple cells the caliber of Rozel, DDC/Chapman, Pilger, etc in May, which maybe quiets down for a bit then reloads in June, rather like 2004 and 2008 did in the last decade. Then every spring the atmosphere says "Nope!"

Leaving work at noon, my car was mostly encased in ice, however it broke apart fairly easily with the scraper. We're at 31 degrees. The trees are pretty well coated.

MKX's forecast for Madison tonight! Let's keep the streak of cold seasons (November-March) with at least one thunder event going!

Very well said. I am here mostly for severe tracking and find cold/snow to be a necessary thing to be endured as part of living here...but even I can appreciate the aesthetics of snow. Bare frozen mud is ugly!

Another quick video during the last, intense burst. The heavy stuff has moved on for now. If I didn't know better, I'd say these were summer thunderstorms on radar!

Quick video from a few minutes ago:

A few minutes ago, it started spitting widely spaced but large snowflakes on the southwest side between Whitney & Gammon. Now hearing the sound of sleet/ice pellets hitting the window.

These are not colors I expect to see on the radar during a winter precip event...

Some areas of near 50 dbz returns headed my way. Not used to seeing that with winter precip events.