CheeselandSkies

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

... as long as I'm not trying to drive in a kitchen sink of winter precip on April 14 like last year...

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

WI-511 site says 16/60 is closed at the bridge going out of Columbus eastbound, but no closure on 73 at this time.

Apparently there is now significant flooding in Fond du Lac, Lodi and Darlington.

With the nature of the storm mode we had today, and lack of the usual wrenches like coastal convection or upscale growth/cell interference... I have a feeling we were just a few more degrees in the dewpoint/a couple hundred more j/kg in the lowest 3km removed from multiple events the caliber of Beauregard-Smith's Station.

My bad, I hadn't looked at the CC for awhile. Goodness. Still, they should then change the "radar indicated rotation" to "radar confirmed tornado."

It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough.

Numerous road closures in southern Wisconsin due to flooding, including some not too far from you, Geoboy. SR-44 between Marcellon and Dalton, and SR-68 between Fox Lake and Waupun.

This day resembles several infamous days such as 4/3/74 and 11/10/02 in the area threatened. Obviously today was much more conditional and probably won't have has much coverage of significant severe (otherwise it would have been a high risk with PDS watches in effect), but certainly the potential for several sig tors from Alabama to IN/OH.

Dear atmosphere, If we're going to have severe weather events, could you please at least make it a clear-cut high risk, PDS day? When was the last time there was one of those in Dixie? 4/28/14? The Plains? 4/14/12? OH Valley? 3/2/12? Enough with these conditionally nasty days, some of which underperform like last Saturday and some of which produce something like 3/3 or today? Sincerely, The entire U.S. weather enterprise

Was NOT expecting to see the sun today. Forecast high might have been too low. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Add the 06Z HRRR to the chorus. Has a couple strong supercells going over IN as early as 17Z tomorrow. It oversold 2/23 and last Saturday a bit (did pretty well with 3/3). I haven't really paid much attention to the HRWs before, but I might have to start.

Looks like very strong rotation in a discrete cell, might have just barely missed Pecos to the NW. Just SVR warned.

I'm honestly not surprised. With all the rain and flooding we got late last summer, lakes and rivers were still swollen at least into October. I was already concerned then what might happen in the spring if we accumulated an AOA snowpack.

Brandenburg had just one less fatality, despite spending a much smaller portion of its path over populated areas.

Rather like Andover, the info I've read about Xenia suggests it was relatively unimpressive as (E)F5s go. Still extremely violent, but only over a small portion of its path. Brandenburg, Guin and Tanner (I) were probably more violent overall that day.

The Extreme Planet blog series is a great resource on violent tornado history, I wish he'd post more stuff again. I agree with most of Madwx's list, except I would move Andover further down (It was rated an F5 which means it was undoubtedly exceptionally violent, but nothing in particular stands out to me about the damage it did) and replace Greensburg with Parkersburg 2008, which left some extreme debris granulation and wind rowing. I don't doubt Greensburg was a legitimate EF5, but I don't think it was quite as violent as some of the likely-underrated F4s you mentioned, plus certain EF4s of recent years (Tuscaloosa 4/27/11, Chickasha 5/24/11, Vilonia, AR 4/27/14 are my top three underrated should-be-EF5s).

I REALLY hope this verifies.

GFS and Euro OP don't look too encouraging if you want warmth and storms in the Midwest. Shows a return to western ridging with the lowest 500mb heights across the eastern Lakes.

MKX now with a WWA out for freezing rain, and it's actually started to snow here. Earlier they weren't expecting anything other than rain.

Of course.

Tomorrow isn't as clear-cut as it once looked, but if the midweek system has instability problems (which 12Z GFS suggests it will) it won't be for lack of moisture....

12Z 3K NAM spitting out some robust UH tracks over central OK around 09Z overnight. Not sure if they'd be surface-based but should be at least a hail threat. For later Saturday on the 12Z GFS...woof, at 500 mb that trough really has the look of one that produces tornadoes, but according to it and other models the instability just isn't going to be there except across a small part of the Deep South well removed from the best dynamics and wind profiles. Save these for May please (although systems like this CAN get it done in mid-March or even earlier - 3/13/90, 3/12/06, 3/15/16, 2/28/17 etc - this doesn't look like it's going to be one of those times).

I won't be seeing that for another month at least.