CheeselandSkies

Has it dying out and missing me to the west.

It's early, but I have yet to see anything strongly suggesting EF4 damage, let alone EF5.

That figures, on a day when I and most others were expecting the typical problem of the WF getting hung up to the south to be the fly in the ointment (if there was one).

Some (myself included) are finding the dense clustery convection (even with strong UH streaks) apparent on the HRRR and 3KM NAM concerning for chaseable tornado potential. I'll re-post what I just posted on ST Discord: I admit I often fail to do this enough, so let's go through some of the factors that usually lead to the convective mess/quick upscale growth the CAMs are hinting at. Low-mid level VBV? Not really seeing it. Shear vectors parallel to the initiating boundary? Not that I'm seeing. Too much forcing for too little capping? Possibly. Any others I'm missing? Although regarding the forcing, isn't that usually a problem with a very strong synoptic system? Per mesoanalysis, this SFC low should be deepening with time (a positive if you want storms), but not getting TOO deep (~1000MB), which might actually lead to a higher significant tornado threat.

It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while.

Ugggggh, if it was two hours earlier I'd be out chasing these things.

Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

I was driving through that on my way back from my lovely (sarcasm) Oklahoma chase on Monday. Did wonders for my fuel economy I'm sure and almost pushed me off the road several times. Couldn't stay out there for today and tomorrow due to having to be back at work starting 3 AM tomorrow morning.

Which it did...and largely busted as we know. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

That would be funny if it hadn't actually already happened. RIP TS/PS/CY. The weird and especially sad thing is, for those guys that wasn't their chasing style at all.

If Monday holds serve from the 00Z suite, I suspect it will break the streak.

Hot diggity. ...and yeah, I've never understood exactly what separates a "PDS" warning from a TORE. I would guess proximity to a populated area, but I have seen "PDS" warnings used instead even when the couplet looked to be approaching a town/city.

If a 5/3/99-like event occurred every time it popped up as an analog on a forecast sounding, every human settlement in Oklahoma and Kansas would have been leveled several times over by now. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

It's almost all for MCS junk.

I give up. We don't get significant tornado outbreaks anymore. Mother Nature is just trying to drown us.

DDC/Chapman in 2016, maybe? And even those days were kind of subtle in the medium to long range. My eyes were on that Thursday when the main trough was progged to finally eject into the warm sector. However (surprise surprise) it turned into a VBV-plagued convective crapfest.

I didn't used to mind but this decade particularly the latter half has gotten me to that point. I officially hate living in Wisconsin.

Naturally.

Why has this spring been such trash? I thought it would be better since we didn't have the awful late winter SSWE. Is it all down to the -NAO?

Yeah, I got suckered out too. No way in h*** was I going into Lie-owa despite HRRR's insistence, so poked my way down to Forreston, IL and stayed there until about 4:45 (Ironically, about the same place and time that I threw in the towel on Rochelle day in 2015, now unlike then I have a smartphone and thus access to data just about anywhere, instead of having to find open public wi-fi). Got home shortly after 6, also about the same time I got home that day. However unlike that day, I didn't pull up GR Level 3 to see a flying eagle with debris ball 10 miles from where I'd been less than 90 minutes earlier, and repeatedly slam my head into my desk.

Down to marginal at 13Z.

Just once during the spring I would like to feel a true tropical (like 80/75) airmass being advected in on a screaming LLJ the night before a high risk day. My money's on it's not going to be this one. Chasers trying to stay optimistic for late May but I'll believe it when I see the >200kt GTG couplets on radar. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I take back what I said. After a couple nice days looks like the upper Midwest/GL will be plunged into the same cool, overcast crap for the next 2 weeks. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did. Always the same mantras. "EPS says Week 3 will be lit." "You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day." Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yup, that's the one. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk