I certainly understand and don’t necessarily disagree with the handling of headlines/forecast ahead of the storms arrival. I think prudent forecasting would call for not leaning on a solution that is historic and/or well on the fringes of probability.
With that being said, you also cannot sit on your hands when it becomes apparent that this historic event is unfolding. Upstream obs made it fairly clear early in the morning that the low probability event was unfolding. I was getting 2+ inch per hour rates with thundersnow and near zero visibility with no headline. Roads went to shit very quickly, with the general public mostly unaware that this kind of impact was even on the table. After the death band had shifted north a bit (but still under mod-heavy snow) we get a WWA for 2-6” when central Dekalb county and areas NE already have 6” already on the ground.
While I don’t envy your position, the messages seemed to vary wildly in the AFD’s leading to the event. From informative of the issues at play, to a complete downplaying of the models, it seemed like the shifts could not get on the same page.
A good event to look back on and study. I would assume that the NWS is having some debriefs and discussing all sides of this and determining what can be done better next time. Your office does a great job, and we appreciate your inside info.