Chicago916

Still looks like models are overdoing ongoing precipitation. Gonna have to closely watch what the storms in KS do further east I'd think.

Tomorrow's a wake up and see day. No point to modeling.

On the reals though, this probably is the most under the gun such a large area of the sub has been in since the Washington, IL outbreak (ignoring derechos). Could be a busy day. Going to be some lol worthy rrfs runs starting today. LR NAM already going crazy in NIL with STP.

Tornado Alley really is just Illinois these days.

Trending NW with larger warm sector. Definitely the next period to watch

Any prefrontal cells that pop ahead of the front that aren't undercut and are in the better parameter space. Yikes.

What does it take these days to get a Moderate risk? Doesn't make sense given the watch probabilities?

Safe to say morning clouds/debris will not be an issue. Time to build instability and a strong cap.

Maybe a dumb question but why does the SPC Mesoanalysis show CAPE in Illinois? I doubt we've accumulated 1000 J/kg under clouds all day.

Feels like another sleeper lower MI tornado day

Given the nuance in forecasting severe weather, I find it funny how the current enhanced eastern extent just barely extends into the Metro lol

The Great Lakes are the place to be when everything else goes to shit. At least we have fresh water.

They did. ILL!

Was driving around tons of flooded streets in Lincoln Park and Avondale earlier. Going to be a literal icerink out there tomorrow. If only someone could have cleared all of the crap from the sewer drains to prevent it...

Idk about using global models at short range, but interesting dual maxima of snow on GEFS in NW IL and NE IL. Who knows what happens.