CheeselandSkies

Yeah, I got suckered out too. No way in h*** was I going into Lie-owa despite HRRR's insistence, so poked my way down to Forreston, IL and stayed there until about 4:45 (Ironically, about the same place and time that I threw in the towel on Rochelle day in 2015, now unlike then I have a smartphone and thus access to data just about anywhere, instead of having to find open public wi-fi). Got home shortly after 6, also about the same time I got home that day. However unlike that day, I didn't pull up GR Level 3 to see a flying eagle with debris ball 10 miles from where I'd been less than 90 minutes earlier, and repeatedly slam my head into my desk.

Down to marginal at 13Z.

Just once during the spring I would like to feel a true tropical (like 80/75) airmass being advected in on a screaming LLJ the night before a high risk day. My money's on it's not going to be this one. Chasers trying to stay optimistic for late May but I'll believe it when I see the >200kt GTG couplets on radar. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I take back what I said. After a couple nice days looks like the upper Midwest/GL will be plunged into the same cool, overcast crap for the next 2 weeks. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did. Always the same mantras. "EPS says Week 3 will be lit." "You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day." Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yup, that's the one. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I was up in your neck of the woods yesterday. I found this little park in Doylestown and walked through the grass, it was like a marsh. With every step water squished out of the grass, soaked through my shoes and into my socks. The soil literally can't hold any more moisture. The Wisconsin River is very high. As bad as last August was, I am quite concerned that southern Wisconsin is primed for another flood disaster as bad as or worse than 2008 if we get into another ring-of-fire pattern with training MCS activity at point this spring.

Looks just fine from where I'm sitting, after we get through the next few days.

Teeny flakes in Madison, not sticking to pavement. WSW will bust hard unless things turn around soon, and I'm fine with that. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Me too, especially since my gf's flight back from Atlanta gets in Saturday evening, and I'm supposed to pick her up from the airport. At this rate, it might be significantly delayed.

Perhaps this is better suited for banter/complaint, but these last few days of 70s (with strong thunderstorms yesterday evening!) during the day and upper 40s to 50s at night have felt awesome. The grass has greened up nicely, the crocuses are coming up, and the tree buds are really popping. So all I gotta say is... ...it better not ****-ing snow again.

Bit late to the party, no?

Yeah...I could not stand it looking like that outside ten days from the start of May. I am quite far enough north, thanks.

So what is it about this trough that's making the wind profiles so wonky?

Meanwhile the 3KM NAM paints a rather enticing wind profile over northern Illinois, although it doesn't break out any convection there through dark.

One of the weirdest wind profiles I've ever seen. If you just looked at the 850-500 crossover you'd think everything was hunky-dory. Where the hell are those southerly winds from 850 up to 700mb coming from?

Yes, even without the obvious weirdness in the wind profile, that is why I always question a "PDS TOR" sounding when it has no quality "sig" analog matches.

Despite lack of impressive composite values (EHI/STP etc.), synoptic pattern Wednesday evening over Iowa shown on 3KM NAM is suggestive (surface low with backed winds ahead of it, low 60s dewpoints nosing up to the warm front). Will continue to monitor, although would have dearly loved to see more model agreement by this point.

GFS meanwhile seems to be sticking to its guns in depicting a much more robust severe threat over parts of Iowa Wednesday afternoon/evening...this one is gonna be down to the wire with both models basically locked in on their solutions for multiple runs. What a forecasting nightmare. About the only favorable factor I can find consistently across both models is very steep lapse rates in the warm sector, which most previous systems this year have been lacking. However as the NAM suggests that may be the result of an unbreakable cap.

12Z NAM remains unimpressive.

Yeah, I read the outlook. The wording sounds like they expect mainly hailers. I had higher hopes for this setup when people were talking about how ominous it looked in the Day 8 or so range. I'll need to see the NAM come around some before I start feeling good again about my decision to take Wednesday off to chase.

Big downtrend for Iowa with the 15% barely nudging into the SE corner of the state after most of the state being in the Day 4 30%. Looks like SPC is leaning more towards the NAM, which remains worlds apart from the GFS which has actually increased the EHI over the area on recent runs. Not impressed with this system as it gets closer, at this point not looking like a significant tornado event for anyone.

Doubtful but I wouldn't rule it out. Regardless, the environment should be supportive of a few tornadic supercells across the area. How many and how strong they get remains to be seen.

Today could be more significant than yesterday turned out to be over the MDT risk area in LA. The amount of real estate covered by red boxes is reminiscent of some larger outbreaks, although the parameters aren't extreme.

NAM was a bit of a downer for IA chase prospects on Wednesday. Much less EHI than the GFS and doesn't develop the surface low up there nearly as much. However it's still early.