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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe super-compact intense hurricanes like Andrew and Charley had similar pressure drops in their cores.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Guess we'll have to busy ourselves tracking more hurricanes...although @ldub23 says there's too much SAL.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Down to slight, 5% moved to our NE. I'll keep on saving the gas money for next spring.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    (Cartman voice) Weak. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1609.html
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Yep, looks like 2020 will join 2018 as a one-and-done chase year for me (August 10th was the only time I got out, to get in the northern fringes of the derecho). In 2018 I didn't get out till a day in October, when a bunch of tornado-warned minisupercells randomly blew up (none actually produced in WI).
  8. CheeselandSkies
    I think we are hosed for later today, the way this line is moving in southern MN with some training/back-building in far northern IA it's not going to clear up here by noon unless it breaks up and dissipates. *Ironically there are actually some breaks in the clouds now (which I wasn't expecting, as I was expecting the overnight line to be here right now or within the next hour) so maybe it can intensify some and be the main show. Still probably nothing worth chasing.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Of course ARX radar is down as I want to see what this line coming in is doing. Apparently it was a planned outage of which today is the last day, so naturally there would be severe weather in the area. https://www.weather.gov/arx/SLEP_pedestal
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Warnings going out locally this afternoon. Wasn't really expecting the action until overnight and tomorrow.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Perhaps someone more thoroughly versed in atmospheric physics can chime in: Why is Laura not getting yanked up by/merging with the midlatitude s/w trough that presumably is responsible for today and tomorrow's severe threat, the way Cristobal was in June?
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Just came on to say that SPC upped us to 5%. Worth noting we just passed the 15th anniversary of 8/18/05, which was a fairly subtle warm front setup. Will see if the hurricane remnants to the south throw a wrench in things (big Gulf Coast hurricane was about 10 days away in 2005), but the juice should already be in place up here. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on things tomorrow afternoon. 12Z 3K NAM has a bow echo about to hit us at 00Z Saturday, HRRR has nothing. Gotta love the long-range CAMs.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Harvey, Michael, Hanna and now Laura. Bombing on approach to the Gulf Coast is the new weakening.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Laura is beginning to star in some next-level satellite porn. I wonder if @ldub23 is getting his fix or if it only counts if it gets named east of 40W?
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Irma was the only ATL one I remember that bombed out twice...or was about to before plowing into Cuba.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    That's the new "Double Trouble" since Marco went AWOL.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Not with the ridging that's being modeled.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Moar Gulf TC remnants please.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, we barely got anything last night (nada on the west side) and most of the derecho missed us to the south, too. Next chance is late this week, with higher severe probs than last night/this morning (when several warnings went out, and some hail was observed).
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Pop-up tornado warning heading toward @Geoboy645's neck of the woods. Rotation looked briefly impressive for 1-2 scans but likely transient. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1564.html
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Buzzsaw. Mecha-Katrina.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells?
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, unless one of those fantastical hurricane model solutions come to fruition, chances are neither of these storms are as damaging as the Iowa Derecho.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    I should add that "precaution" was made possible because we both have health insurance and the hospitals in this area are not flooded with critical COVID patients...there are some but they had plenty of room for her. When my friend Dan got it back in March they wanted to send him home right away even though he was burning up and couldn't keep anything down. Ended up spending 10 days on a ventilator. Much is still unknown about the virus and the disease, but much has been learned since then.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Thanks. My biggest fear was always that it would hit her pretty hard since she has diabetes and is immunocompromised. Thankfully (so far) she has not had any respiratory distress and her oxygen levels are near normal despite the pneumonia, so the hospitalization was more of a precaution than a necessity.
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