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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    This is why I never buy the first round of intensity estimates. Too many moving parts. Almost every expected strong storm comes in weaker, and vice versa.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Can we at least get some severe weather outbreaks before the cold really locks in? Upcoming pattern after this little tease of winter looks to turn milder but maddeningly quiescent, which seems to be the rule in this region of late apart from some random day in August.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    I think he's referring to the anti-lockdown protests (armed buffoons in the MI state capitol, etc) which pre-dated the racial justice protests.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Hopefully it means an end to this highs in the 30s in Oct crap.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Also that the WPAC, apparently out of spite, supposedly caused some of the Atlantic systems' struggles by Typhoon Maysak contributing to the formation of a TUTT in the Atlantic in September which reduced the intensity/longevity of some of the MDR systems.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Send it 75 miles north, please.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Sounds about right.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    One last hurrah for some rumblers tomorrow? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  9. CheeselandSkies
    '07-'08 was my last year attending UW-Green Bay with winter break trip home so I got to experience it in both northeast and south-central Wisconsin. As I recall your assessment is accurate.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    I will take that, we were buried in snow most of DJF but there was that early-mid January thaw that also included a regional tornado outbreak.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Mitch/Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    As much as I'd love to see something like that, I don't buy it for a second.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Some of the GFS tracks in recent days haven't been too far off from that.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas).
  16. CheeselandSkies
    I'd rather we were the new Southern Plains in terms of tornado potential, but that doesn't seem to be happening (at least not on a reliable/predictable A/M/J basis).
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Yes...yes. It seems that is what needs to happen to get quality severe weather in the central CONUS again.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op? (at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)
  20. CheeselandSkies
    ...is it S****?
  21. CheeselandSkies
    What happened to that?
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Michael was basically the unicorn of landfalls. In the CONUS, in daylight, with a perfectly formed stadium eyewall untouched by EWRC or dry air; yet it is barely talked about outside of those it impacted and those who chased it.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    So LA gets the big wind and the big surge...just from different storms.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, this one has really underachieved in the satellite porn department especially considering the waters it has gone over. 2020 - 25? 26? tropical cyclones and maybe four quality eyes visible for 1-12 hours each?
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