CheeselandSkies

Slightly OT but it always used to weird me out when Toronto posters would talk about getting rainers. I always thought of Canada as this place way far to the north that's inevitably colder and snowier than us. I have to remember Toronto is only a few degrees of latitude north of me.

When Madison was riding the southern cutoff but still got over 10." What could go wrong?

If that happens and kills the tornado season just like in 2018, 100% chance I lose all interest in weather. Been nice knowing y'all. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

After that suite with a near unanimous agreement on 10"+ for Madison...

See, and here I thought that period was just us getting back to proper Wisconsin winters.

Been a long long time since there was a proper regional outbreak. I think you have to go back to Palm Sunday 1965 for one that affected IA, WI, IL, MI, IN and OH.

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

I was just thinking to myself looking at radar and out the windows at work that this has the look of an overachiever. Go figure, since totals with this event were not expected to be that impressive to begin with. Why can't we ever get an anticipated big dog that verifies at or above even the high end of guidance?

When I was a kid growing up in Madison (early '90s), our TWC local forecasts would always show current conditions at Madison, as you'd expect. However, when I visited my paternal grandparents in Beloit, their local forecasts always began with "Conditions at Lone Rock." This struck me as odd even then, even more so when I realized Lone Rock isn't anywhere near Beloit.

Seen that happen not just with winter but with potential severe outbreaks and TC track/intensity...craziness.

You have to adjust for the Chris Broyles hype factor in any convective outlook he does. He has a history of being enthusiastically over-bullish on severe/tornado potential (he tends to forecast for the worst-case scenario within the model spread, instead of a blend/the most probable).

After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles!

Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point.

4.6" would be right up there for us this winter.

I know, right?

Man, that broad belt of vigorous 500mb SW flow east of the Rockies on the GFS about 5-7 days from now would be awesome if it was A/M/J. Someone in the sub might still have to keep an eye out for an overachieving early season severe event, although it'll more likely be in the Dixie jungles.

Our hotel is right across from it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

While some are complaining about the lack of cold air, I'm wondering why it's basically the same temperature (mid-30s) and sky conditions (overcast) in southern Ohio as I left in Madison. 35 is mild by Wisconsin January standards, so you'd think it could be like in the 50s here, but nooooooo. Also been getting snow showers (melting on contact with the pavement) most of the day. - Currently in Dayton for my fiancee's brother's Air Force promotion. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018.

I sure hope not. Driving to SW OH (Dayton) and back for a family event late next week (Thursday-Saturday). As of yesterday GFS and Euro both painted upper 30s-low 40s and negligible precipitation.

What else is new this winter? Although, I'm fine with that since I already postponed my birthday celebration due to snow (was on Friday 1/17) until next Friday, so would just as soon not have to do it again.

Thankfully.

That's the one thing that did perform pretty close to my expectations. Over 900 wind reports over the two days plus at least three brief but strong (EF2+) tornadoes with embedded supercells. The whole discrete supercells ahead of the line thing always seemed like more of an outside chance than a bona fide threat with this event, to me at least. Lots of soundings with shear vectors parallel to the front, even if there wasn't gnarly VBV in the vertical profile, and the speed shear made for extreme amounts of SRH.

Possibly, but it seems all the expected big dogs last winter (including the one at the end of April, lol) verified on the low end of expected totals.

Over 700 wind reports over the two days. Impressive serial derecho.