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Thundersnow12

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    Batavia, IL
  1. Victor Gensini and I are leading trip 3 with COD and we are out June 2nd-June 11th. Both optimistic as things look currently.
  2. Everyone will be targeting further north into Texas but man if a storm can go up in the HRRR progged environment from I-10 down to DRT...bulk shear, upper level flow, and shear vectors would favored discrete supercells and I bet the mountain range will fire some in Mexico. Could be a little later show down there and a gamble but very impressive environment and parameter space being modeled.
  3. Lots of early/ongoing convection on the HRRR....tomorrow reminds me a little like 5/16/15 in a sense, obviously with lesser moisture tomorrow among some other different things. I remember the night before the HRRR had morning convection but it was able to clear out to the northeast, just had to get as far south as possible with new storms developing south in the steep low level lapse rates. What is interesting is some of that HRRR convection on the souhern end is in fairly decent environment and you could have elevated storms early become suface based as warm front lifts north. Several scenarios on the table with this one tomorrow and not entirely sure which one will play out.
  4. The 0z Euro is an excellent run for all of northern Illinois and really impressive LES setup on this side as well with delta T's nearing/exceeding 20 degrees with 850's getting down to -16 by 18z Tuesday and lake water temps around 40 degrees. I think 3-5" is still a safe call here but can see isolated higher amounts, especially near the lake. The Euro has double digit totals in southeast WI along the shore but that might be a stretch. We will see how hi res guidance handles the LES as we get closer.
  5. Interesting forecast with both system snow and lake enhancement/LES snow for northeast IL Sunday night through Monday and into Tuesday. Really need the ejecting wave to amplify as much as possible before getting into the Midwest and have the wave over the northeast exit stage right in a hurry to allow for that amplification. There are ways this can become a good event but we aren't there yet.
  6. What was amazing to me was how storm structure improved with each storm further off to the SW. We dropped south at Princeton initially ahead of the GBG cluster that would become the Naplate/Ottawa supercell. When we got east of Bradford, it began to tightened up at low levels and attempt but it was still really low grunge and not much structure above the wall cloud/cloud base. We then continued east to Henry, briefly decided to keep up with this first storm knowing the HRRR took this ENE and made it the dominant storm. We turned north but quickly turned back south and then west again out of Henry when seeing velocity of the second supercell near Bradford again. When coming up on the flat miles east of Bradford we saw a large cone tornado but from a distance. Didn't get any pictures as I was on the phone for nearly 3 mins trying to get a tornado report out and crossing counties etc had to be transferred and also thought it would still be on the ground when we got closer. When we did get closer there was better structure including a nice bowl/cone funnel and clear slot but could never do it again. We stayed with it east back to Henry for a third time and said screw it and dropped south. We crossed the river at Lacon and took 26 south to get ahead of the Keokuk-Peoria supercell. The viewing along the river isn't great but again the structure again was much better with this storm as we could already see a faint base in the distance and a nice rock hard/knuckled updraft and anvil. East on Banta Rd to west of Low Point where we finally came up onto the flat and stopped to view it looking west. Structure continued to improve as the updraft really began to clear itself out with a nice wall cloud developing. Knowing we had some time, we drifted north to probably two miles SSW of Washburn on hwy 89 and had a perfect view for the next 20 mins to watch it improve great, tornadogenesis and the first 5 mins or so of the tornado before continuing north than east. What a day. Hoping to have my videos up later this afternoon. Here are some pictures just of the Washburn supercell and tornado. The first one is about 20 minutes or so before tornadogenesis
  7. Here is my full video of the Washburn, IL tornado along with a quick timelapse of tornadogeneis at the beginning. What a day and I'll upload some more pictures and a little chase account summary later tonight or tomorrow. This is a little late as I was out all day yesterday assisting with the Naplate/Ottawa tornado with Victor Gensini and another guy from NWS Chicago.
  8. The HRRR continues to paint a very scary and ominous scenario for northern Illinois and the Chicago metro area...early 22-0z, fairly discrete supercells or one single storm...and even if those storms are slightly undercut you're talking the threat for very large mail and strong damaging winds. And if they are surface based....well...have to be worried about a serious tornado threat.
  9. If model guidanace holds, see no reason why the SLGT isn't shifted further north
  10. Another thread that shouldn't of been started... perfectly fine and covered in the sub forums.
  11. Huh? That's plenty of shear. Just look at the hodograph and a right mover would be almost moving ESE. Great directional and shear shear in the lowest few km.
  12. Delete this thread and 5 post the the thread starter
  13. The Euro gives ORD 1-2" and is the most bullish. 18z also bumped slightly north
  14. Pretty sizable shift north with the 0z Euro
  15. Different and more favorable run aloft which leads to a better reflection at the surface and a new secondary area of snow which ends up the beginning of the northeast storm.