CheeselandSkies

The good news is we are going into spring with a healthy (in fact for some, record) snowpack in place, as opposed to 2011-12 when the entire central CONUS dried to a crisp and started to bake in March and never stopped until almost fall. I have to think that the recent winter storms in the southern Plains will help as well, since it's unusual for them to be going into spring with any snowpack at all in place, isn't it?

The blustery winds today even prior to precip onset made it feel less mild than I was expecting/hoping for.

Don't. Even.

Thought we were supposed to be on the upswing by now.

FIFY.

For me it had already overstayed its welcome when it first showed up on the GFS and Euro inside of "probably a mirage" range.

...aaaaaand were STILL looking at lows in the single digits through the end of next week.

What the heck happened to Missouri into WC IL? * Also SE MI.

I would love that.

My fiancee's dad lives in San Antonio. They have a low of 11 forecast for Monday night, but then back up to 57 by Friday. We won't be seeing that until April...if we're lucky.

My parents are 71/69 (Dad turns 72 next month, Mom turns 70 in April) and already had their appointments rescheduled further out due to shortages.

Passed a dude wearing shorts in the hall of my apartment building yesterday...hopefully he was just heading to the little gym we have but you never know around here.

This morning has actually been one of the rougher ones this winter as far as traffic accidents in southern Wisconsin. I think it's a combination of people not taking it seriously because we weren't forecast to (and didn't) get a big snowstorm, and the inefficacy of salt at these temperatures.

I would have thought there'd be a "cojones" or "huevos" in there.

I'm off that map but probably less than 2" over the next 384 hrs.

They've gotten bad since Rusty Kapela retired.

...although not according to the current modeling per @andyhb.

Amazing how the temperature gradient is so sharply defined east to west rather than north to south. At 12Z Sunday Macon, GA is 60 degrees while Waco, TX, roughly on the same latitude, is 12.

My reaction is 0:33-0:40:

So much for La Niña +TNI, -PDO magic, lol. Of course, they could easily be wrong at this range, but if ALL of them are doing it it's kind of worrisome. Guess this is why you haven't started the 2021 tornadoes/high risk thread yet.

I think @andyhb might be a little gun shy after starting this thread for 2020 on the first of the year, lol. Early indications are the typical La Nina duality of things looking rather ominous for Dixie Alley and perhaps the Ohio Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley, but less clear for the better chase country further west/north especially in the traditional chase "season" of May and the first half of June. Some thought 2007-'08 might be a good analog for this winter, which had already featured two fairly large outbreaks by this point in February which obviously hasn't happened, but all it takes it one as we saw in Alabama a couple weeks ago. Andy's posted some good analysis here and on other forums about why 2021 might favor the more active analogs (1999, 2008, 2011*) more so than the "dud" ones (2006, 2012, 2018, etc) but all we can do at this point is wait and watch. Won't be anything anytime soon with all the cold air dominating everywhere east of the Rockies, lol. *The usual caveat that the one day in particular we all remember that year for was so extreme it is HIGHLY unlikely to recur anytime soon, but never say never when it comes to the weather.