CheeselandSkies

Great, just in time for my birthday (not that I have any plans or am going anywhere this year)...

Car facing me was clean when it was parked there. Two forward-parked cars to the left have not been cleaned off since Tuesday night's snowfall. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Light snow has commenced in Madison. Band of >30dbz returns is just southeast of us. @madwx @Luftfeuchtigkeit @Geoboy645

Dry in Madison so far. Looks like we're riding the cutoff between about 1" and zilch. I haven't been following this event too closely since it became clear it wouldn't be too sig for us, but this thread has taught me a lot about why significant ice storms always seem to either happen without warning or when one is forecast, it busts. There's a really narrow window of ideal temperature profiles and precip rates for efficient accretion of freezing rain. There was one morning back in I believe the winter of 2013-'14 (one of our first winter precip events of the season, before it became legendary) where I woke up to, completely unexpectedly, find my car encased in about 1/2" of solid ice.

Back side of the snow seems to be clearing Madison now, heavier rates definitely missed us to the west/south. Doubt we made warning criteria totals here and points north.

9" and "still snowing heavily" at Lowden, IA per co-op observer.

Me looking at MKX radar and seeing the reflectivity drop off sharply in eastern Iowa: "I wonder if there's anything back to the west..." (Pulls up DVN radar) "Holy **** is that a supercell?!" (I know it's not, but you don't generally expect to see >55dbz returns with a winter wx event)

Same. Looks to be picking up already.

Yikes. My fiancee still has to drive home from work in Baraboo.

HRRR really wants to keep the main band south of Madison, only 4.1" by hour 17 while most local forecasts over the last couple days have had us in the 6-10" bullseye.

What else is new? I seemed to recall an event last winter or the one before that was supposed to be our biggest of the winter and modeled/warning criteria totals were killed by dry air at the outset.

WSW for us @madwx @Geoboy645. Driving in for work at 3 AM Wednesday should be...interesting.

Not too shabby. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Again, what happened to these things forming in the Rockies and moving NE?

This would be a tornado outbreak track in April/May so watch a "winter" pattern decide to set up then.

#GradientLife

I think it's already been too dry/snowless in Dec. for a '07-'08 redux which I have seen tossed out a lot as an analog for this Niña. On the plus side, if some of the modeled storms in the next week or two pan out, at least the entire central CONUS won't be going into spring and summer bone dry as in '11-'12.

Thought we were gonna get something out of this. Now it looks like melt today/flash freeze tomorrow with no new snow, so a dirty glacier Christmas it is. Yay. That snow we got the 11th-12th is now rendered basically pointless.

The day Salina, KS has 46" on the ground while we have like 4" I will literally eat a hat. Although, I like the idea of building up a big snowpack over the Plains. Might help forestall the standard La Niña drought and help chase season '21 be rockin'.

Yeah WTH happened to the "King"?

When does that happen anymore in this sub, for winter or severe? A big dog is forecast for days AND it actually pans out as such.

Interesting tension there as I was of the understanding that -AO is favorable for snow/cold in the central and eastern CONUS...but so is SSW.

Looks like dry air ate up the dusting we were supposed to get overnight.

La Niña can be such a mixed bag. You have years like 2011 (obviously an extreme example but the general idea of being dangerous in Dixie holds), which wasn't great in the Plains/Midwest in May/June apart from that late-May series which included Joplin, 2012 which aside from a couple early outbreaks was obliterated by drought, and 2008 which was IMO one of the best all-around severe seasons in my memory, although I could have done without so much flooding. Activity commenced with that early January N IL/SE WI outbreak, Super Tuesday in Dixie, and continued right on through peak with about a 3-week stretch of nonstop action from late May through mid-June. ...and ya, 2020 sucked for interesting weather unless you're a hurricane chaser. Even the Cristobal remnants were a downer here, just wasted an early June day on drizzly, blustery conditions more suited to early spring or fall.

February 2018. Snowed well into April and obliterated chase season (didn't think it could get any worse in that regard, then 2020 happened).