CheeselandSkies

Verbatim that run is pretty meh. Thursday would be a decent day over the Plains if it wasn't totally capped, and it speeds the system up with the front coming across the MS at 12Z Friday instead of ~21Z. Might be some gusty morning thundershowers for us before another ripping, chilly northwest wind takes hold. By the time it gets to you closer to peak heating, the system is occluded with deep layer flow parallel to the cold front.

TORR with the storm southeast of Shreveport based on a CC drop co-located with the couplet at about 2352Z, although the couplet actually looked stronger for a few frames before that. Circulation looks to be getting rained into by the cluster enveloping it from the west now.

If nothing else, the end of next week's system is at least a sign we might be turning the corner toward a less frigid and more convectively active pattern. The biting northwest wind today was not pleasant.

Very narrow band of marginal surface CAPE along the front though...looks like moisture will be an issue. Dew not even up to 60. Lapse rate map is rather eyebrow-raising, though, at least at 18Z.

Quincy is not impressed. Neither is Jeff. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2018-severe-wx-chase-season-discussion.29986/page-3

Can you hear it?

Yeah, things look to ramp up sooner than I'd anticipated given the pattern we've been stuck in. Even yesterday's action kind of came out of left field for me, although we never even sniffed the warm sector here in WI. A week prior I'd have told you no chance of any severe anywhere east of the Rockies through at least April 15.

The view outside my apartment building, prior to spending 10 minutes scraping my car off in a biting north wind before work this morning.

It would be helpful for non-mets if posts like this with multiple teleconnection acronyms could include a quick summation of what that means for sensible weather in this sub and the rest of the CONUS. This one does (increased severe potential), but I find that's not always the case. I know what MJO stands for, but haven't the foggiest about what it means for it to be into the IO or what the AAM crashing almost -3 sigma means.

Same old same old, dry and cold for southern Wisconsin. Any weather of consequence misses us to the east/south (this past weekend's snow, tomorrow's severe) or north (tonight/tomorrow's snow). #AprilFail #Fapril (February in April)

I despise eastern trough dominated springs, which seem to be the rule rather than the exception. Although, I remember April 2011 as being raw, gray and convectively uneventful as we were stuck on the cool side of most of the systems after the April 10th one (which, maddeningly, produced most of its tornadoes NORTH of southern Wisconsin). Even had snow showers on the 18th. I just realized something, going back and rereading the April 9th, 2011 Day 2 outlooksvalid for April 10th. It always seemed to me like that event underperformed its potential based on the wording of those Day 2 outlooks, even though by Wisconsin standards it was fairly significant (16 tornadoes, 1 EF3 and 3 EF2), the wording -particularly in the initial one- made it sound like it would be April 27 for the upper Midwest (2 1/2 weeks before anyone knew what "April 27" meant). Now I know why that is...IT WAS BROYLES!!!

Exactly. It is ****-ing spring. Time for tracking severe weather threats down south and getting psyched for chasing. OTOH, the closest thing the upper Midwest/Great Lakes has ever had to an April 27th, Palm Sunday 1965, occurred in the midst of a winter that refused to go quietly with cold and snow lingering over much of the affected area in the preceding weeks (or so I've read here). Seems like that had a lot more significant (blizzard-type) snowstorms, though. Just had some little showers pop up and moisten the parking lot, and it's the first precipitation I recall seeing in at least two weeks, since that snow I was semi-psyched for a couple days ago missed us to the southwest.

LOL, I like the "storm" and "developing gale" notations across the central CONUS.

Never thought I'd be one to be looking forward to snow in late March, but it has been so blasted dry we need all the precip we can get any way we can get it.

Well in any case the Plains especially along and west of I-35 need all the rain they can get between now and May.

Yuck. Shades of 2014, except with less snow and thus a looming drought in the mix. Fun. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Ugh. WHEN is it going to wane?

12Z GFS solution still maintains a fairly robust severe threat for next Sunday along the I-35 corridor in OK/southern KS. Although, it is rather disconcerting to see the surface low and its associated warm sector basically get crushed between one cold air mass to its east and another to its northwest, instead of continuing to deepen as it lifts towards the upper Midwest on Monday.

Recent GFS runs would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains next Sunday, the 25th. Warm sector SRH and EHI took a big jump from the 00z to the 06z run, popping some impressive analogs. Remains to be seen if it has legs, but it's the next thing to watch.

I'd say a tad earlier in the season than ideal for such an active pattern. Much like last year, might run into a problem with not enough moisture recovery between systems, although as it stands right now (one system next Sunday-Monday and then another the following Friday-Saturday) it shouldn't be as much of an issue. I know I've said it before, but it sure would be nice to get a look like that from late April through May one of these years. One thing that the last few years have taught me is that with any given early season setup, actual dewpoint value doesn't matter as much as long as LCL is not too high (not too much of a difference between dewpoint and temperature) and the upper levels are sufficiently cold. The setups in late March-early April '17 that underwhelmed had other issues besides moisture. You get ideal shear profiles and cold upper levels, and marginal-looking surfaced T/Td can get the job done (3/15/16, 2/28/17).

Way too early to take seriously, but 12Z GFS also has a nice little event in IA/MO for Saturday the 24th. That's the 2nd run in a row that suggests another potent system 5-7 days after the first.

Yes, the GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely. Of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, but the general pattern has been consistent for several days now. In fact, it brings another system behind that one for late in week-2, suggesting this western trough might be good for more than one potent system. Would love to see a look like the 06Z run has for hour 180 through 324 valid for sometime in May, preferably my vacation week. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

At this point I don't want to see any forecasts of a "very cold North America," especially not from King Euro. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

At least someone realizes it's spring. Everybody else still wants to wishcast snow and cold. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk