CheeselandSkies

Over 700 wind reports over the two days. Impressive serial derecho.

@madwx @DanLarsen34 When was the last WSW event for us that actually verified with totals meeting the criteria?

That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

WSW downgraded to WWA for Dane. This system has confirmed for me that models are pointless. I quit.

That's about what I expected for today based on some of the issues I saw in forecast soundings. Storms have been intermittently severe with a few confirmed tornadoes, none particularly long-lasting or violent-potential-appearing (in contrast, to, say the 62-mile track beast of December 16th). Not that warnings shouldn't be taken seriously, especially at night.

TDS with the western AR cell. I'd post a radar image but my attachment limit is capped at 0.16 MB.

That is one gnarly tornado-warned LEWP. With it being so close to the radar, hard to tell if the CC is showing a TDS or just noise.

@DanLarsen34, what are you seeing?

Pingers, pingers, we've got pingers.

TDS is just NW of Keys, OK.

Crowder, OK cell has my attention at the moment, moreso than the Muskogee one. Rotation looks tighter on that one.

1630 out early, little change.

Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels.

Just your average 65-70 degree range of possibilities.

Yeah...it kind of is. That's one of the reasons I geek out about severe weather setups (that I can't chase myself), the possibility of armchair chasing and seeing live streams of video like this. Not to say that it won't be dangerous or capable of producing significant severe weather, just that the likelihood of tornadoes capable of leveling a frame house is not particularly high with this event (not that there couldn't still be a few). Either way this has been and continues to be a fun system to track, both the severe aspect and the potential winter wx aspects for MBY this coming weekend.

Wow. One of very few high risks (perhaps the only one in the 21st century) to not be preceded by a Day 2 Moderate.

Wouldn't they have done it for the January day in 2017 that became a high risk on Day 1?

Major veer-backing above 850mb in a lot of those soundings. Wind profiles get somewhat more favorable Saturday over MS/AL compared to Friday over TX/LA, but this wind profile is probably about the best I've found and even it is fairly unidirectional. I would look for a QLCS capable of widespread damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes, some possibly strong. However, I'm not sold on the potential for sustained free warm sector supercells capable of long-track, EF3+, widely visible tornadoes. Not to say this couldn't still overachieve in that regard a la 12/16.

Still quite a bit of VBV in this sounding. Shear profiles are progged to improve somewhat through the day Saturday in southern parts of MS/AL and the Florida panhandle. I think that's where/when any long-track, EF3+ supercell tornadoes will be with this event if things stand as they are.

Friday afternoon over E. Texas, EHI ticked up again on the 12Z NAM but VBV is quite pronounced above 850mb in forecast soundings from the most unstable areas. That's not a look for sustained open warm sector tornadic supercells. There could be some pretty potent QLCS tornadoes though with the amount of turning below 850mb.

I'd be sick of the quakes, too!

The lapse rates on the GFS for Friday afternoon/evening in the Arklatex/lower MS Valley made me sit up and take notice. Those are often the make-or-breaker in low-CAPE cool season setups.

In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again.

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.